Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY
Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 14:26:31 -0400
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Hermann: At the time I replied, this list was floundering a bit, throwing out this stock or that (along with personal slurs, innuendo, etc), without much thought or providing "why" of their posts. Then along comes Mike, putting a stock on the table, including a description of the company, most of the essential CANSLIM facets about the stock, and WHY he liked it. When I saw this, my intent was to communicate a) to him that his summary IS superlative, and b)to the rest of the group, particularly newcomers, that this is what we mean herein when we say, "Post any stock you're considering and want feedback on, but be sure to tell us why you're posting it, how do you think it conforms to CANSLIM, etc. For your information, off list, Mike responded to me in French. Ah, I thought, my idiom was well directed; and yes, a sign of a certain level of "class." The French notwithstanding, Mike's contributions to this group (cwh online analysis tools, among other things) may not put him in the highest social class, but I think many of the regulars will agree he's probably ahead of whatever is next to the highest! Duke - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Hermann Ertl Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 12:50 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY That is a good point, Duke. Don't use simple language if a more complicated expression, that adds value to the information, can be found. I thought you spoke about XRAY when you said, "cr=E8me de la cr=E8me!" = and I would have liked that you explain what - actually that is not the right word because superlative means everything - why it is superlative. Now I am not sure. Did you say Mike belongs to the highest social class? > From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2002 23:07:35 -0400 > > Hermann: > > 1. Something superlative. > 2. People of the highest social level. > > [French : cr=E8me, cream + de, of + la, the + cr=E8me, cream.] > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Hermann Ertl > Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 9:20 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY > > > cr=E8me de la cr=E8me - would you please elaborate. > > > > > From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > > Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2002 16:25:32 -0400 > > > > e Mike: When it comes to submitting stocks for > > consideration, this has got to be, beyond a doubt, the cr=E8me de la = > > cr=E8me! > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Mike Gibbons > > Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 3:27 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY > > > > In view of the interest in current cases rather than 20-20 > > hindsight, and discussions to aid the learning process, I offer > > XRAY as an example, which broke out today from a CwH pattern with > > short handle Firstly, let me add the disclaimer that I'm a > > programmer who was introduced to CANSLIM as a development project, > > and I'm 1 year into the 3 yr learning curve, so further comment > > by the "experts" is welcomed to improve my own > > understanding. Firstly the fundamentals which are very strong, > > with the exception that Institutional Ownership is already quite > > high. There are differing views on what the level should be, but > > somewhere less than 30% would be better. Additional DD would be > > required to determine why pre-tax profit margins are decreasing > > and if that is cause for concern. (This information is drawn from > > yahoo/multex not IBD) > > C Current Earnings > Earnings per share > > growth of at least 25% in the most recent quarter > > > > > > > Most recent quarter year on year growth. (Published > > financial data). > > > > 35.00 % > Latest three quarters of sales > > growth should be a minimum of 25% > Average > > year on year growth for last 3 quarters. (Published > > financial data). 51.00 % > Sales growth > > should be accelerating. > Difference in year > > on year growth rates over last 3 quarters. (Published > > financial data). 23.00 A Strong > > Annual Earnings Growth Annual earnings growth > > for the last three years of 25% or greater 3 > > year compound EPS growth rate. (Published financial > > data). 53.00 % Return on equity should be > > at least 17% Published financial data. > > 21.00 % Pretax profit margins should > > be increasing Profit Margin for most recent > > quarter minus profit margin 1 year ago. (Published > > financial data). -1.00 size=3D2>N > > > New Products, Services or Leadership > If a > > company has a dynamic new product or service, or is > > capitalizing on new conditions in the economy, this can have a=20 > > dramatic impact on the price of a stock. Buy stocks just as > > they emerge from a sound "base" pattern and make new price > > highs. Not Known > > size=3D2>S Supply and Demand Watch = the > > demand for shares by looking at the percentage change in > > volume for each of your stocks. Analyze a stock's daily and > > weekly price and volume changes. The up/down volume > > ratio measures the ratio of accumulation days to > > distribution days over the last 50 days. > > 0.90 L Leading Stocks in Leading Industry > > Groups Nearly 50% of a stock's price action > > is a result of its industry group's performance. Focus on > > the top industry groups, and within those groups select > > stocks with the best price performance. > > Multex Industry Rank ( 0 - 99 ) > > (26 week relative performance). > > 90 > > > > Multex Rank within Industry ( 0 - 99 ). Provided for > > informational purposes only. > > (4 week relative performance) > > > > 22 > The stock's Relative Price Strength > > Rating should be in the 80s or 90s > We > > calculate RS daily by ranking all NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ > > stocks. Our RS algorithm is described here. It correlates > > well with IBD's. Value. Score pro-rated in range > > 60-79. 83 I Institutional > > Sponsorship You want at least a few of the > > better performing mutual funds owning the stock. They're > > the ones who will drive the stock up on a sustained > > basis. Institutional Ownership. Value in range 5 > > - 30% needed to score 1. 79.00 > > % No. of Institutions. Provided for > > informational purposes only. 568 > > size=3D2>M > Market Direction > You can > > buy the best stocks, but if the general market is weak, > > most likely your stocks will be weak also. > > Because Market Direction is not specific to any one > > particular stock, we do not evaluate it on a per stock > > basis. Look at the chart below. Note that the handle > > is only 3 days long. This is normally insufficient to have shaken > > out the potential sellers and WON recommends that a handle should > > be at least 1-2 weeks long, otherwise a breakout is prone to > > failure. Also the volume in the handle has not dried up. This is > > often the case in the early days of handle formation and we would > > like to see the volume decrease below the ADV and the price wedge > > downwards as the handle progresses. Look at the volume coming > > up the right side of the cup - consistently above the 50 ADV > > accompanied by big price positive price movements, with only two > > days when the stock closed slightly down. It would have been > > better if the volume had been below the ADV on those days, in > > which case the stock would have earned a higher CQ (Chart > > Quality) score. > > > > Note the RS line. This is quite high at 83, but has advanced > > only slightly over the last few days despite significant price > > gains in this stock. This indicates that other stocks are doing > > at least as well. The 50 day up/down volume is at 0.90. > > Values less than 1 mean that the down volume days exceed the up=20 > > volume > > > days. However, the trend of the line is upwards, which is a > > positive sign. I'll go out on a limb and say my guess > > is that todays breakout will not be sustained (although its > > holding now - just) and it will continue to form a > > handle. I conclude that this is one to watch but not to > > buy right now. Aloha, Mike Gibbons > > Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com = size=3D2> > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe=20 > canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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