RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)

From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 09:01:35 -0500
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Nancy,

Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are misdirected! =
The true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but none of =
them by the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, of such =
wisdom. I believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too would =
like to know where he would get such information to answer Question #4. =
So- not to pass the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hiding =
beneath the shell? Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. =
Squad?

And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only for a =
fleeting moment!

Kelly

- -----Original Message-----
From: NANCY POLCARO [mailto:zillagirl@msn.com]
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
dissection)


Kelly-catching up on myt mail also-I thought your presentation was =
really=20
good-I wish I was that far right now.  Can you tell me where you got =
your=20
info? IBD? Daily Graphs?  Other source? Thanks nancy


>From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Subject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for=20
>dissection)
>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400
>
>Winston, et al:
>
>I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM list messages, and a thought
>just occurred to me after reading Winston's reply to Kelly below.  =
(Sans
>header I would have surely assumed it was Katherine's response!)
>
>Your point #4 is a true Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further
>thought, and is what I call an "a-ha".   The reason?  How bombarded we
>are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment
>net "tools."   But when it's all said and done--technicals,
>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought about how
>will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue and how
>soon--is what it's all about, isn't it?  You can't measure it, you can
>accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't feel it.  But if the
>response to that question is not, albeit in you gut, positive, you
>shouldn't touch it, should you?
>
>Thank you for that.
>
>Duke
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston Little
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>My hope is that the note was of some help, but please keep the =
following
>in mind:
>1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond.
>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree =
with
>the point or issue stated or asked?
>3. If you agree with the point, then is what is the significance of the
>point or issue? The point may be true but of little value.
>4. How will the rest of the market traders/investors/or others  react =
to
>the point or issue, and how soon?
>Depending on the results of  the evaluate the points above (or others),
>you may then want to respond and show the other person a different
>perspective.
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>Winston,
>
>You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip
>myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the newbie
>pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- so close to
>making it from the pond to the big river, then the big bad human ("M")
>comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for your observations- =
I'll
>keep hacking away.
>
>Kelly
>  -----Original Message-----
>From: Winston Little [mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>A few comments:
>1. Chart pattern:
>If cup-with handle (start 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup
>which is not ideal.
>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 and 05
>Aug.
>3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable)
>4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok.
>5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in =
the
>top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one =
exception
>was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 31.
>6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$998
>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001, $1234
>in Q2 of 2001 etc.  Surprisingly the eps reported in Q2 of 2002 was
>highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does this imply there may
>be a re-statement in the works as day of reckoning approaches for CEO
>and CFO?
>CCR is believed to be a sub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as
>the slow economy persists and consumers start to run out of cash?
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc
>
>EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3
>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in
>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation
>(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything
>IBD would show us). Thoughts?
>
>
>IBD Ratings
>Smart Select	 99
>EPS Rating	 94
>RPS	 89
>Industry Group Rank	 A
>S+P M+ROE	 A
>A/D	 A+
>
>
>Technical Rating	 98
>Fundamental Rating	 96
>Attractiveness Rating	 99
>Group's Technical Rating	 79
>Group's Fundamental Rating	 86
>
>
>
>Rank within Industry Group
>Industry Rank (08/08/02)	 32
>
>Overall	 100
>Technical	 100
>Fundamental	 91
>Attriveness	 100
>Top 5 Companies w/in Group
>
>
>
>CCR
>
>
>
>DORL
>
>
>
>NCEN
>
>
>
>NDE
>
>
>
>FRE
>Group % Chg to Date	 2%
>Group % Chg Last 12 mths	 4%
>Group % Chg Last 4 weeks	 4%
>
>
>Performance
>
>Up/Down Vol	 1.3
>3 Yr. EPS Growth	 16%
>3 Yr. Sales Growth	 25%
>EPS Growth (Quarterly)	 	% Chg
>Qtr -1	 $0.64	 5%
>Qtr -2	 $0.61	 8%
>Qtr -3	 $0.56	 5%
>Qtr -4	 $0.53	 8%
>Qtr -5	 $0.49	 0%
>Qtr -6	 $0.49
>
>Revenue Growth
>Qtr -1	 293,159	 3%
>Qtr -2	 285,799	 1%
>Qtr -3	 283,199	 1%
>Qtr -4	 281,332	 3%
>Qtr -5	 272,860	 0%
>Qtr -6	 272,489
>
>   _____
>
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>
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>
>
>
>




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