Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Scott Gettis" <sgettis@ucla.edu>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CECO
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 11:29:25 -0700
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Katherine,
Shouldn't the base count be reset on CECO since the b/o from a flat base on
6/24 failed and the curent base undercuts the lows of the flat base.
- --Scott
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:19 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
HI Mike,
I can tell my response wasn't clear. Let me try again with some examples
and articles.
In general, it's important to distinguish between a "healthy rising stock"
and a "base." On one hand, you will have a stock, like CECO, which has been
rising over time. Each time is rises for a while, then it pauses to
consolidate. That pause is the "base." Each time the stock reaches a new
high and then consolidates, it will demonstrate its ability to absorb the
gains from the previous rise of >=25%. That pattern that you see along the
rising trend line is what you want to see in a stock. The problem is, after
the stock has done this 3 or 4 times, it becomes well-known and obvious, and
so it is rare that it can continue tracing out this same rising behavior for
too much longer. What will normally happen is that the stock will often fail
in the next breakout and/or correct so deeply that it undercuts the low of
the previous base. That "resets the base count" and you then start over with
counting bases, assuming of course, that the stock *can* recover. WON
suggests that if the correction is more than 80% that the stock is too badly
damaged that it may not recover in any reasonable time period. (IBM and WMT
come to mind....look back at a 10 year chart of each of them and notice what
happened after they corrected so deeply. They essentially went into years of
sideways movement.)
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, so thought it easier to
write up some notes. See notes on the "Healthy Rising Stock" at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/HealthyRisingStock.JPG
Now, far different than the healthy rising stock is the *type* of base
that it forms while consolidating. There are many, though there are some
that are more common, more reliable, and far easier to spot than others. I'd
rank the ascending base as the most difficult to master. See my handwritten
notes on types of bases at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/TypesOfBases.JPG
Just to be complete, I've also uploaded quite a few resources related to
both rising stocks (base counting) and ascending bases. I figured it was far
easier to do that than to reinvent the wheel and describe the ascending base
in detail. See them at:
Counting bases:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountingBasesHowTo.doc
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountBasesB4Buy.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/MktWashoutNewBases.JPG
Ascending bases:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/AscendingBaseRally.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/FindAscendingBases.doc
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BuyPointABase.doc
In summary, there is no such thing as a "long term ascending base" as the
concept confuses a healthy rising stock pattern over a longer time period
with the ascending base pattern, which is a particular kind of consolidation
(>=6wks).
CECO has been exhibiting the characteristics of a "healthy rising stock"
and is currently forming a 3rd stage base. CECO is *not* currently forming
an ascending base. It is forming a very strange base on base (flat + C&H) as
far as I can tell. I saw many odd patterns like this at the September '01
low and many of the stocks were able to recover from the V shaped sell off,
breakout and move on. Many of the retailers, the gaming stocks,
homebuilders, security related stocks and Aero & Defense come to mind.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 10:20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
Hi Katherine,
I just opened my brand new copy of HTMMIS v 3 and found on P. 137-138
the topic "Ascending Base". The definition is somewhat similar to what you
describe:- "Ascending Bases, like flat bases, occur midway along a move up
after a stock has broken out of a cup-with-handle or double-bottom base. It
has three pullbacks from 10% to 20% with each low point during the sell-of
in price being higher than the preceding, which is why I call it and
ascending base. Each of the pullbacks usually ocurs due to the general
market declining at that time."
Looking at your annotated chart, it would seem CECO fits this
definition. It would also seem that the most recent pullback coincided with
the July selloff in the markets in agreement with the definition.
Maybe CECO is one to watch. Any other views?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 3:52 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
HI Mike,
I've noticed the term "long term ascending base" coming up in many
posts lately, so thought I'd make comment on that concept.
There's actually no such thing, as "ascending base" is a very
particular kind of conolidation in the stock's move. In general, a stock
will rise, then pause (base), rise, then pause, rise, then pause, and so on.
As long as the rise between consolidations is at least 25%, the next area of
consolidation is considered a new stage base. This is also the same reason
that an LLUR is not a base....it's a stock on the rise, though with low
volatility. (Sorry, Tom, just a point on which we don't agree.)
The base normally happens when the stock makes a new high, then falls
and/or refuses to continue the up move for some period of time. A flat base
for example, moves essentially sideways for at least 5 wks, the C&H or cup
without handle lasts for at least 7 wks and sports a deeper correction as
the stock retraces some of the previous move, etc. The ascending base is
just an odd consolidation in that it drifts upward, attempting to breakout 3
times. It's a subtle pattern that's hard to read, but shouldn't be confused
with a stock that is rising *between* consolidations.
I've uploaded an example on the CECO chart that shows the base, move
up, base, move up, etc.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg
Please note that I marked the chart quickly, so the circled areas for
the base are "general" and not exact for each base formation.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 7:54 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
When I brought up XRAY last week, Winston observed that the longer
term pattern was more like an ascending base. To my surprize, the XRAY
breakout hasn't failed yet, although it hasn't been strong either, and may
be in the process of forming another handle.
I came across another stock today with similar chart characteristics
to XRAY - now in the handle of a Cwh formation with good CANSLIM
characteristics
(http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=CECO) except for
v. high institutional ownership - but the longer term pattern looks like an
ascending base.
The CwH pattern is not ideal with the cup too short and V-shaped,
which I attribute to the market behavior in July, but perhaps its on its way
to resuming the long term ascending base pattern.
Comments anyone?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>Katherine,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>Shouldn't the base count be reset on CECO =
since the b/o=20
from a flat base on 6/24 failed and the curent base undercuts the lows =
of the=20
flat base.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>--Scott</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Katherine =
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:19 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and=20
CECO<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">HI =
Mike,</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">I can tell my response =
wasn't=20
clear. Let me try again with some examples and =
articles.</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">In general, it's =
important to=20
distinguish between a "healthy rising stock" and a "base." On one =
hand, you=20
will have a stock, like CECO, which has been rising over time. =
Each time=20
is rises for a while, then it pauses to consolidate. That pause is the =
"base."=20
Each time the stock reaches a new high and then consolidates, it will=20
demonstrate its ability to absorb the gains from the previous rise of=20
>=3D25%. That pattern that you see along the rising trend line is =
what you=20
want to see in a stock. The problem is, after the stock has done this =
3 or 4=20
times, it becomes well-known and obvious, and so it is rare that it =
can=20
continue tracing out this same rising behavior for too much longer. =
What will=20
normally happen is that the stock will often fail in the next breakout =
and/or=20
correct so deeply that it undercuts the low of the previous base. That =
"resets=20
the base count" and you then start over with counting bases, assuming =
of=20
course, that the stock *can* recover. WON suggests that if the =
correction is=20
more than 80% that the stock is too badly damaged that it may not =
recover in=20
any reasonable time period. (IBM and WMT come to mind....look back at =
a 10=20
year chart of each of them and notice what happened after they =
corrected so=20
deeply. They essentially went into years of sideways=20
movement.)</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Sometimes a picture is =
worth a=20
thousand words, so thought it easier to write up some notes. See notes =
on the=20
"Healthy Rising Stock" at:</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/HealthyRisingStock.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>HealthyRisingStock.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Now, far different than =
the=20
healthy rising stock is the *type* of base that it forms while =
consolidating.=20
There are many, though there are some that are more common, more =
reliable, and=20
far easier to spot than others. I'd rank the ascending base as the =
most=20
difficult to master. See my handwritten notes on types of bases =
at:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/TypesOfBases.JPG">http://WallSt=
reet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>TypesOfBases.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Just to be complete, =
I've also=20
uploaded quite a few resources related to both rising stocks (base=20
counting) and ascending bases. I figured it was far easier to do =
that=20
than to reinvent the wheel and describe the ascending base in detail. =
See them=20
at:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Counting =
bases:</SPAN></P></SPAN>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountingBasesHowTo.doc">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>CountingBasesHowTo.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG">http:/=
/WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG</A></SPAN></P>=
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountBasesB4Buy.JPG">http://Wal=
lStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>CountBasesB4Buy.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/MktWashoutNewBases.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>MktWashoutNewBases.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Ascending =
bases:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/AscendingBaseRally.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>AscendingBaseRally.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/FindAscendingBases.doc">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>FindAscendingBases.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BuyPointABase.doc">http://WallS=
treet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>BuyPointABase.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">In summary, there is no =
such=20
thing as a "long term ascending base" as the concept confuses a =
healthy=20
rising stock pattern over a longer time period with the =
ascending=20
base pattern, which is a particular kind of consolidation=20
(>=3D6wks). </SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">CECO has been =
exhibiting the=20
characteristics of a "healthy rising stock" and is currently forming a =
3rd=20
stage base. CECO is *not* currently forming an ascending base. It =
is=20
forming a very strange base on base (flat + C&H) as far as I can =
tell. I=20
saw many odd patterns like this at the September '01 low and many =
of the=20
stocks were able to recover from the V shaped sell off, breakout and =
move on.=20
Many of the retailers, the gaming stocks, homebuilders, security =
related=20
stocks and Aero & Defense come to mind.</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Katherine</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com=20
href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com">Mike Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 12, 2002 =
10:20=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Hi Katherine,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>I=20
just opened my brand new copy of HTMMIS v 3 and found on P. 137-138 =
the=20
topic "Ascending Base". The definition is somewhat similar to what =
you=20
describe:- "Ascending Bases, like flat bases, occur midway along a =
move up=20
after a stock has broken out of a cup-with-handle or double-bottom =
base. It=20
has three pullbacks from 10% to 20% with each low point during the =
sell-of=20
in price being higher than the preceding, which is why I call it and =
ascending base. Each of the pullbacks usually ocurs due to the =
general=20
market declining at that time."</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Looking at your annotated chart, it would seem CECO fits =
this=20
definition. It would also seem that the most recent pullback =
coincided with=20
the July selloff in the markets in agreement with the definition.=20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Maybe CECO is one to watch. Any other =
views?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 12, 2002 3:52 PM<BR><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>HI Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've noticed the term "long term ascending base" coming up in =
many=20
posts lately, so thought I'd make comment on that concept.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>There's actually no such thing, as "ascending base" is a very =
particular kind of conolidation in the stock's move. In general, a =
stock=20
will rise, then pause (base), rise, then pause, rise, then pause, =
and so=20
on. As long as the rise between consolidations is at least 25%, =
the next=20
area of consolidation is considered a new stage base. This is also =
the=20
same reason that an LLUR is not a base....it's a stock on the =
rise, though=20
with low volatility. (Sorry, Tom, just a point on which we don't=20
agree.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The base normally happens when the stock makes a new high, =
then falls=20
and/or refuses to continue the up move for some =
period of=20
time. A flat base for example, moves essentially sideways for at =
least 5=20
wks, the C&H or cup without handle lasts for at least 7 wks =
and sports=20
a deeper correction as the stock retraces some of the previous =
move, etc.=20
The ascending base is just an odd consolidation in that it drifts =
upward,=20
attempting to breakout 3 times. It's a subtle pattern that's hard =
to read,=20
but shouldn't be confused with a stock that is rising *between*=20
consolidations. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've uploaded an example on the CECO chart that shows the =
base, move=20
up, base, move up, etc.</DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg">http://WallStre=
et-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Please note that I marked the chart quickly, so the circled =
areas for=20
the base are "general" and not exact for each base =
formation.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmike@proactech.com =
href=3D"mailto:mike@proactech.com">Mike=20
Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 12, =
2002 7:54=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>When I brought up XRAY last week, =
Winston=20
observed that the longer term pattern was more like an ascending =
base.=20
To my surprize, the XRAY breakout hasn't failed yet, although it =
hasn't=20
been strong either, and may be in the process of forming another =
handle.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>I came across another stock today =
with similar=20
chart characteristics to XRAY - now in the handle of a Cwh =
formation=20
with good CANSLIM characteristics (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=3DCECO"=
>http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=3DCECO</A>)=20
except for v. high institutional ownership - but the longer =
term=20
pattern looks like an ascending base.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>The CwH pattern is not ideal with the =
cup too=20
short and V-shaped, which I attribute to the market behavior in =
July,=20
but perhaps its on its way to resuming the long term ascending =
base=20
pattern. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>Comments anyone?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
=
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BO=
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