Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "NANCY POLCARO" <ZILLAGIRL@msn.com>
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 18:26:35 -0700
Previous Article (by Date): Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) "NANCY POLCARO"
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Tom-thats the thing I am learning-my exsperience is you get some great ca=
nslim stock, on several lists, in a good sector, under accumulation with =
all B's and A's and you look at it 3 months later and it is half of what =
it was 4 months ago and hasn't split. That is what was so frustrating to=
me when I first tried Canslim. At that time the market was up, but they =
all dont make it -just the ones the buyers want to spend their money on. =
It felt like I did the program and still blew it. What I didn't consider=
is what you just wrote. Hope you dont mind if I paste it to my computer.=
Nancy
=20
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:25 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis=
section)
=20
Kelly, while the market has always been one of the purest forms of supply
and demand dynamics, it is first and foremost controlled by human emotion=
.
Systems such as CANSLIM introduce a certain degree of mechanical aspects,
but our interpretation of what we see and hear, particularly with regard =
to
"M", remains very human, and emotional in our response.
If you have never studied human psychology, then you should, especially H=
erd
Mentality. It is routinely seen in the marketplace. I lost a lot of money
arguing with the markets over the outstanding fundamentals of stocks that
were out of favor. Bottom line, if the market doesn't like it, then it's =
not
going to perform up to expectations.
And that's why looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they are
merely history, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand,
forecasts / projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, hence
drive the price to where the stock trades at a premium based on that
expectation.
Right now, with fears of recession, terrorism, economy weak and not
recovering, corp profits very weak and may not recover as fast as expecte=
d,
the "M" is disconnected from its fundies. If the economic recovery, and
thereby corp profits, do in fact improve long term, the day will come whe=
n
the expectations will shift from negative to positive, and the markets wi=
ll
start a new bull market. And that will be because sentiment (human
psychology) shifts to bullish from bearish.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 10:01 AM
Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
dissection)
Nancy,
Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are misdirected! The
true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but none of them b=
y
the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, of such wisdom. I
believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too would like to kno=
w
where he would get such information to answer Question #4. So- not to pas=
s
the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hiding beneath the shell?
Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. Squad?
And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only for a fleeting
moment!
Kelly
- -----Original Message-----
From: NANCY POLCARO [mailto:zillagirl@msn.com]
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
dissection)
Kelly-catching up on myt mail also-I thought your presentation was really
good-I wish I was that far right now. Can you tell me where you got your
info? IBD? Daily Graphs? Other source? Thanks nancy
>From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Subject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
>dissection)
>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400
>
>Winston, et al:
>
>I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM list messages, and a thought
>just occurred to me after reading Winston's reply to Kelly below. (Sans
>header I would have surely assumed it was Katherine's response!)
>
>Your point #4 is a true Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further
>thought, and is what I call an "a-ha". The reason? How bombarded we
>are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment
>net "tools." But when it's all said and done--technicals,
>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought about how
>will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue and how
>soon--is what it's all about, isn't it? You can't measure it, you can
>accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't feel it. But if the
>response to that question is not, albeit in you gut, positive, you
>shouldn't touch it, should you?
>
>Thank you for that.
>
>Duke
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston Little
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>My hope is that the note was of some help, but please keep the following
>in mind:
>1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond.
>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree with
>the point or issue stated or asked?
>3. If you agree with the point, then is what is the significance of the
>point or issue? The point may be true but of little value.
>4. How will the rest of the market traders/investors/or others react to
>the point or issue, and how soon?
>Depending on the results of the evaluate the points above (or others),
>you may then want to respond and show the other person a different
>perspective.
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>Winston,
>
>You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip
>myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the newbie
>pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- so close to
>making it from the pond to the big river, then the big bad human ("M")
>comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for your observations- I'll
>keep hacking away.
>
>Kelly
> -----Original Message-----
>From: Winston Little [mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>A few comments:
>1. Chart pattern:
>If cup-with handle (start 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup
>which is not ideal.
>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 and 05
>Aug.
>3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable)
>4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok.
>5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in the
>top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one exception
>was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 31.
>6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$998
>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001, $1234
>in Q2 of 2001 etc. Surprisingly the eps reported in Q2 of 2002 was
>highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does this imply there may
>be a re-statement in the works as day of reckoning approaches for CEO
>and CFO?
>CCR is believed to be a sub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as
>the slow economy persists and consumers start to run out of cash?
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc
>
>EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3
>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in
>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation
>(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything
>IBD would show us). Thoughts?
>
>
>IBD Ratings
>Smart Select 99
>EPS Rating 94
>RPS 89
>Industry Group Rank A
>S+P M+ROE A
>A/D A+
>
>
>Technical Rating 98
>Fundamental Rating 96
>Attractiveness Rating 99
>Group's Technical Rating 79
>Group's Fundamental Rating 86
>
>
>
>Rank within Industry Group
>Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32
>
>Overall 100
>Technical 100
>Fundamental 91
>Attriveness 100
>Top 5 Companies w/in Group
>
>
>
>CCR
>
>
>
>DORL
>
>
>
>NCEN
>
>
>
>NDE
>
>
>
>FRE
>Group % Chg to Date 2%
>Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4%
>Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4%
>
>
>Performance
>
>Up/Down Vol 1.3
>3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%
>3 Yr. Sales Growth 25%
>EPS Growth (Quarterly) % Chg
>Qtr -1 $0.64 5%
>Qtr -2 $0.61 8%
>Qtr -3 $0.56 5%
>Qtr -4 $0.53 8%
>Qtr -5 $0.49 0%
>Qtr -6 $0.49
>
>Revenue Growth
>Qtr -1 293,159 3%
>Qtr -2 285,799 1%
>Qtr -3 283,199 1%
>Qtr -4 281,332 3%
>Qtr -5 272,860 0%
>Qtr -6 272,489
>
> _____
>
>For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.
>
>Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/
>
> _____
>
>
>
>
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<HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>Tom-thats the =
thing I am learning-my exsperience is you get some great canslim stock, o=
n several lists, in a good sector, under accumulation with all B's and A'=
s and you look at it 3 months later and it is half of what it was 4 month=
s ago and hasn't split. That is what was so frustrating to me when =
I first tried Canslim. At that time the market was up, but they all =
dont make it -just the ones the buyers want to spend their money on. =
;It felt like I did the program and still blew it. What I didn't co=
nsider is what you just wrote. Hope you dont mind if I paste it to my com=
puter. Nancy</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"PADDING-R=
IGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial">----- Original=
Message -----</DIV> <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt Arial;=
COLOR: black"><B>From:</B> Tom Worley</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Ari=
al"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:25 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FON=
T: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com</DIV> <DIV style=3D"=
FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR =
- - I offer this up for dissection)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV>Kelly, while the=
market has always been one of the purest forms of supply<BR>and demand d=
ynamics, it is first and foremost controlled by human emotion.<BR>Systems=
such as CANSLIM introduce a certain degree of mechanical aspects,<BR>but=
our interpretation of what we see and hear, particularly with regard to<=
BR>"M", remains very human, and emotional in our response.<BR><BR>If you =
have never studied human psychology, then you should, especially Herd<BR>=
Mentality. It is routinely seen in the marketplace. I lost a lot of money=
<BR>arguing with the markets over the outstanding fundamentals of stocks =
that<BR>were out of favor. Bottom line, if the market doesn't like it, th=
en it's not<BR>going to perform up to expectations.<BR><BR>And that's why=
looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they are<BR>merely his=
tory, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand,<BR>forecasts =
/ projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, hence<BR>drive t=
he price to where the stock trades at a premium based on that<BR>expectat=
ion.<BR><BR>Right now, with fears of recession, terrorism, economy weak a=
nd not<BR>recovering, corp profits very weak and may not recover as fast =
as expected,<BR>the "M" is disconnected from its fundies. If the economic=
recovery, and<BR>thereby corp profits, do in fact improve long term, the=
day will come when<BR>the expectations will shift from negative to posit=
ive, and the markets will<BR>start a new bull market. And that will be be=
cause sentiment (human<BR>psychology) shifts to bullish from bearish.<BR>=
<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@t=
x.us.neoris.com><BR>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>Sent: Tu=
esday, August 13, 2002 10:01 AM<BR>Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CAN=
SLIM] CCR - I offer this up for<BR>dissection)<BR><BR><BR>Nancy,<BR><BR>B=
elieve me when I tell you that your words of thanks are misdirected! The<=
BR>true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but none of the=
m by<BR>the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, of such w=
isdom. I<BR>believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too would=
like to know<BR>where he would get such information to answer Question #=
4. So- not to pass<BR>the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hid=
ing beneath the shell?<BR>Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O=
.B. Squad?<BR><BR>And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if o=
nly for a fleeting<BR>moment!<BR><BR>Kelly<BR><BR>-----Original Message--=
- ---<BR>From: NANCY POLCARO [mailto:zillagirl@msn.com]<BR>Sent: Monday, Au=
gust 12, 2002 6:57 PM<BR>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: P=
earl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for<BR>dissection)<BR=
><BR><BR>Kelly-catching up on myt mail also-I thought your presentation w=
as really<BR>good-I wish I was that far right now. Can you tell me =
where you got your<BR>info? IBD? Daily Graphs? Other source? Thanks=
nancy<BR><BR><BR>>From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>=
;<BR>>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>To: <canslim@list=
s.xmission.com><BR>>Subject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I=
offer this up for<BR>>dissection)<BR>>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33=
:54 -0400<BR>><BR>>Winston, et al:<BR>><BR>>I'm catching up w=
ith my backlog of CANSLIM list messages, and a thought<BR>>just occurr=
ed to me after reading Winston's reply to Kelly below. (Sans<BR>>=
;header I would have surely assumed it was Katherine's response!)<BR>>=
<BR>>Your point #4 is a true Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes furthe=
r<BR>>thought, and is what I call an "a-ha". The reason?&n=
bsp; How bombarded we<BR>>are with information and desktops riddled wi=
th shortcuts to investment<BR>>net "tools." But when it's =
all said and done--technicals,<BR>>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.=
- --spending time in thought about how<BR>>will the rest of the market..=
.react to the point or issue and how<BR>>soon--is what it's all about,=
isn't it? You can't measure it, you can<BR>>accurately predict =
it, can't touch it, can't feel it. But if the<BR>>response to th=
at question is not, albeit in you gut, positive, you<BR>>shouldn't tou=
ch it, should you?<BR>><BR>>Thank you for that.<BR>><BR>>Duke=
<BR>><BR>><BR>> -----Original Message-----<BR>>From: ow=
ner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmissio=
n.com] On Behalf Of Winston Little<BR>>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 1=
2:15 PM<BR>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>Subject: Re: [CANSLI=
M] CCR - I offer this up for dissection<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>Ke=
lly:<BR>>My hope is that the note was of some help, but please keep th=
e following<BR>>in mind:<BR>>1. The goal is neither to whip or thro=
w you back into the pond.<BR>>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said=
or stated.... do you agree with<BR>>the point or issue stated or aske=
d?<BR>>3. If you agree with the point, then is what is the significanc=
e of the<BR>>point or issue? The point may be true but of little value=
.<BR>>4. How will the rest of the market traders/investors/or others&n=
bsp; react to<BR>>the point or issue, and how soon?<BR>>Depending o=
n the results of the evaluate the points above (or others),<BR>>=
you may then want to respond and show the other person a different<BR>>=
;perspective.<BR>><BR>><BR>>----- Original Message -----<BR>>=
From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com><BR>>To: =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM<=
BR>>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection<BR>>=
;<BR>>Winston,<BR>><BR>>You give me new understanding of DD. Aft=
er reading your email I whip<BR>>myself for not investigating further =
before posting. Back to the newbie<BR>>pond for me. I feel like those =
Snakehead fish in Maryland- so close to<BR>>making it from the pond to=
the big river, then the big bad human ("M")<BR>>comes and throws me b=
ack in the pond. Thanks for your observations- I'll<BR>>keep hacking a=
way.<BR>><BR>>Kelly<BR>> -----Original Message-----<BR>>=
;From: Winston Little [mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]<BR>>Sent: Thursda=
y, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM<BR>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>S=
ubject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection<BR>><BR>>=
;<BR>><BR>>Kelly:<BR>>A few comments:<BR>>1. Chart pattern:<B=
R>>If cup-with handle (start 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-C=
up<BR>>which is not ideal.<BR>>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum de=
sired is five days) on 03 and 05<BR>>Aug.<BR>>3. Heavy volume in ha=
ndle (again undesirable)<BR>>4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of =
average daily =3D ok.<BR>>5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be =
a bit high, as others in the<BR>>top five of the IBD group were at 0.9=
8, 0.18 and 0.83. The one exception<BR>>was the government sponsored a=
gency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 31.<BR>>6. Largest concern was roll off in =
revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$998<BR>>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4=
of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001, $1234<BR>>in Q2 of 2001 etc. Surpr=
isingly the eps reported in Q2 of 2002 was<BR>>highest at $1.48 up fro=
m $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does this imply there may<BR>>be a re-statement=
in the works as day of reckoning approaches for CEO<BR>>and CFO?<BR>&=
gt;CCR is believed to be a sub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as=
<BR>>the slow economy persists and consumers start to run out of cash?=
<BR>><BR>>----- Original Message -----<BR>>From: Kelly Short <=
;mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com><BR>>To: canslim@lists.xmissio=
n.com<BR>>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM<BR>>Subject: [CAN=
SLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection<BR>><BR>>CCR - Countrywi=
de Cr Inds Inc<BR>><BR>>EPS growth could be better but are we more =
forgiving over the past 3<BR>>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS gro=
wth for past 3 qtrs which in<BR>>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears=
to be coming out of CWH formation<BR>>(all though not as beautiful a =
formation as the Mona Lisa or anything<BR>>IBD would show us). Thought=
s?<BR>><BR>><BR>>IBD Ratings<BR>>Smart Select 99<BR>>EPS R=
ating 94<BR>>RPS 89<BR>>Industry Group Rank A<BR>>S+P M+ROE A<BR=
>>A/D A+<BR>><BR>><BR>>Technical Rating 98<BR>>Fundamental=
Rating 96<BR>>Attractiveness Rating 99<BR>>Group's Technical Ratin=
g 79<BR>>Group's Fundamental Rating 86<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>=
Rank within Industry Group<BR>>Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32<BR>><BR>=
>Overall 100<BR>>Technical 100<BR>>Fundamental 91<BR>>Attrive=
ness 100<BR>>Top 5 Companies w/in Group<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>=
;CCR<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>DORL<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>N=
CEN<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>NDE<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>FRE=
<BR>>Group % Chg to Date 2%<BR>>Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4%<BR>>=
Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4%<BR>><BR>><BR>>Performance<BR>><BR=
>>Up/Down Vol 1.3<BR>>3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%<BR>>3 Yr. Sales Growt=
h 25%<BR>>EPS Growth (Quarterly) % Chg<BR>>Qtr -1 $0.64 5%<BR>>Q=
tr -2 $0.61 8%<BR>>Qtr -3 $0.56 5%<BR>>Qtr -4 $0.53 8%<BR>>Qtr -=
5 $0.49 0%<BR>>Qtr -6 $0.49<BR>><BR>>Revenue Growth<BR>>Qtr -=
1 293,159 3%<BR>>Qtr -2 285,799 1%<BR>>Qtr -3 283,199 1%<BR>>Qtr=
-4 281,332 3%<BR>>Qtr -5 272,860 0%<BR>>Qtr -6 272,489<BR>><BR>=
> _____<BR>><BR>>For your protection, this e-mail me=
ssage has been scanned for viruses.<BR>><BR>>Visit us at http://www=
.neoris.com/<BR>><BR>> _____<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR=
>><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>________________________________________________=
_________________<BR>Join the world's largest e-mail service with MSN Hot=
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ail.<BR><BR>_____________________________________________________________=
_______________<BR>For your protection, this e-mail message has been scan=
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bscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body=
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, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe =
canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your em=
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