Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "NANCY POLCARO" <ZILLAGIRL@msn.com>
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 20:04:21 -0700
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- ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Is a trailing PE simply the last 8 or 10 quarters of earnings posted and = is that what you look for in the figures? =20 =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:10 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis= section) =20 I disagree, Harvey, we are talking about a snapshot in time, doesn't matt= er for that purpose if the forecasts prove to be real or imaginary. If the investing community, right now, perceive them to be real (or even likely) and they are far superior to the rest of the industry group, or the marke= t at large, then they can create an expectation. If those expectations late= r start to be questioned, then the charts will warn you with other companie= s reducing forecasts, reporting below expectations, price lines on charts trending down, etc. While I don't give any weight to trailing PEs, I do look at the actual earnings for apparent trends (especially sequentially), and also take not= e where forecasts were then available how they compare to what was then expected. I also apply the "logical" test to any forecasts, including see= ing what they must do for the remainder of the year just to make forecasts. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Harvey Brion" <hbrion@ieee.org> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 4:18 PM Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) A caution here, it's good to keep in mind that trailing PE ratios at leas= t are "real," while projected PE ratios are only as good as the earnings foreca= sts and can be way off, especially beyond the current quarter and FY. This risk = is reduced somewhat for older/larger companies that have a history of making= or exceeding the quarterly earnings forecasts, so called "positive surprises= ." That said, I consider both trailing and projected PEs in my stock selecti= on. > <snip> > And that's why looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they a= re > merely history, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand, > forecasts / projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, henc= e > drive the price to where the stock trades at a premium based on that > expectation. > <snip> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>Is a trailing = PE simply the last 8 or 10 quarters of earnings posted and is that what y= ou look for in the figures? </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE sty= le=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEF= T: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"= >----- Original Message -----</DIV> <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FO= NT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: black"><B>From:</B> Tom Worley</DIV> <DIV style=3D= "FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:10 PM</DIV> <D= IV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com</DIV>= <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was= [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV>I= disagree, Harvey, we are talking about a snapshot in time, doesn't matte= r<BR>for that purpose if the forecasts prove to be real or imaginary. If = the<BR>investing community, right now, perceive them to be real (or even = likely)<BR>and they are far superior to the rest of the industry group, o= r the market<BR>at large, then they can create an expectation. If those e= xpectations later<BR>start to be questioned, then the charts will warn yo= u with other companies<BR>reducing forecasts, reporting below expectation= s, price lines on charts<BR>trending down, etc.<BR><BR>While I don't give= any weight to trailing PEs, I do look at the actual<BR>earnings for appa= rent trends (especially sequentially), and also take note<BR>where foreca= sts were then available how they compare to what was then<BR>expected. I = also apply the "logical" test to any forecasts, including seeing<BR>what = they must do for the remainder of the year just to make forecasts.<BR><BR= >----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Harvey Brion" <hbrion@ieee.org= ><BR>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>Sent: Tuesday, August 1= 3, 2002 4:18 PM<BR>Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I of= fer this up for<BR>dissection)<BR><BR><BR>A caution here, it's good to ke= ep in mind that trailing PE ratios at least<BR>are<BR>"real," while proje= cted PE ratios are only as good as the earnings forecasts<BR>and<BR>can b= e way off, especially beyond the current quarter and FY. This risk = is<BR>reduced somewhat for older/larger companies that have a history of = making or<BR>exceeding the quarterly earnings forecasts, so called "posit= ive surprises."<BR><BR>That said, I consider both trailing and projected = PEs in my stock selection.<BR><BR><BR>> <snip><BR>> And that'= s why looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they are<BR>> = merely history, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand,<BR>= > forecasts / projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, h= ence<BR>> drive the price to where the stock trades at a premium based= on that<BR>> expectation.<BR>> <snip><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To su= bscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body= , write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not us= e quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, em= ail "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe cans= lim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.= <BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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