Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "NANCY POLCARO" <ZILLAGIRL@msn.com>
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 20:07:54 -0700
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Kelly-will you please tell me what sources you used to get your figures??=
=20
=20
- ----- Original Message -----
From: NANCY POLCARO
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 6:18 PM
To: canslim
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis=
section)
=20
I know - our moments of feeling good are limited when your new-huh! It l=
aid out a format for me that I could understand, kind of like mikes cwhan=
dle chart. No one said a lot was missing, so Im using it for a reference=
right now with your permission. Glad you had a smile-Nancy
=20
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Kelly Short
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:02 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis=
section)
=20
Nancy,
Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are misdirected! The=
true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but none of them =
by the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, of such wisdom=
. I believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too would like to=
know where he would get such information to answer Question #4. So- not =
to pass the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hiding beneath th=
e shell? Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. Squad?
And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only for a fleeting=
moment!
Kelly
- -----Original Message-----
From: NANCY POLCARO []
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
dissection)
Kelly-catching up on myt mail also-I thought your presentation was really=
=20
good-I wish I was that far right now. Can you tell me where you got your=
=20
info? IBD? Daily Graphs? Other source? Thanks nancy
>From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Subject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for =20
>dissection)
>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400
>
>Winston, et al:
>
>I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM list messages, and a thought
>just occurred to me after reading Winston's reply to Kelly below. (Sans
>header I would have surely assumed it was Katherine's response!)
>
>Your point #4 is a true Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further
>thought, and is what I call an "a-ha". The reason? How bombarded we
>are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment
>net "tools." But when it's all said and done--technicals,
>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought about how
>will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue and how
>soon--is what it's all about, isn't it? You can't measure it, you can
>accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't feel it. But if the
>response to that question is not, albeit in you gut, positive, you
>shouldn't touch it, should you?
>
>Thank you for that.
>
>Duke
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston Little
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>My hope is that the note was of some help, but please keep the following
>in mind:
>1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond.
>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree with
>the point or issue stated or asked?
>3. If you agree with the point, then is what is the significance of the
>point or issue? The point may be true but of little value.
>4. How will the rest of the market traders/investors/or others react to
>the point or issue, and how soon?
>Depending on the results of the evaluate the points above (or others),
>you may then want to respond and show the other person a different
>perspective.
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>Winston,
>
>You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip
>myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the newbie
>pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- so close to
>making it from the pond to the big river, then the big bad human ("M")
>comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for your observations- I'll
>keep hacking away.
>
>Kelly
> -----Original Message-----
>From: Winston Little [mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>A few comments:
>1. Chart pattern:
>If cup-with handle (start 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup
>which is not ideal.
>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 and 05
>Aug.
>3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable)
>4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok.
>5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in the
>top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one exception
>was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 31.
>6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$998
>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001, $1234
>in Q2 of 2001 etc. Surprisingly the eps reported in Q2 of 2002 was
>highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does this imply there may
>be a re-statement in the works as day of reckoning approaches for CEO
>and CFO?
>CCR is believed to be a sub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as
>the slow economy persists and consumers start to run out of cash?
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc
>
>EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3
>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in
>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation
>(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything
>IBD would show us). Thoughts?
>
>
>IBD Ratings
>Smart Select 99
>EPS Rating 94
>RPS 89
>Industry Group Rank A
>S+P M+ROE A
>A/D A+
>
>
>Technical Rating 98
>Fundamental Rating 96
>Attractiveness Rating 99
>Group's Technical Rating 79
>Group's Fundamental Rating 86
>
>
>
>Rank within Industry Group
>Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32
>
>Overall 100
>Technical 100
>Fundamental 91
>Attriveness 100
>Top 5 Companies w/in Group
>
>
>
>CCR
>
>
>
>DORL
>
>
>
>NCEN
>
>
>
>NDE
>
>
>
>FRE
>Group % Chg to Date 2%
>Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4%
>Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4%
>
>
>Performance
>
>Up/Down Vol 1.3
>3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%
>3 Yr. Sales Growth 25%
>EPS Growth (Quarterly) % Chg
>Qtr -1 $0.64 5%
>Qtr -2 $0.61 8%
>Qtr -3 $0.56 5%
>Qtr -4 $0.53 8%
>Qtr -5 $0.49 0%
>Qtr -6 $0.49
>
>Revenue Growth
>Qtr -1 293,159 3%
>Qtr -2 285,799 1%
>Qtr -3 283,199 1%
>Qtr -4 281,332 3%
>Qtr -5 272,860 0%
>Qtr -6 272,489
>
> _____
>
>For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.
>
>Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/
>
> _____
>
>
>
>
_________________________________________________________________
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<HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>Kelly-will you=
please tell me what sources you used to get your figures?? </DIV> <=
DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5=
px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">=
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV> <DIV =
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: black"><B>From:</B=
> NANCY POLCARO</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesda=
y, August 13, 2002 6:18 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</=
B> canslim</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Pear=
l of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)</DIV> <D=
IV> </DIV> <DIV>I know - our moments of feeling good are limited whe=
n your new-huh! It laid out a format for me that I could understand=
, kind of like mikes cwhandle chart. No one said a lot was missing,=
so Im using it for a reference right now with your permission. =
; Glad you had a smile-Nancy</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE st=
yle=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LE=
FT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial=
">----- Original Message -----</DIV> <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; F=
ONT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: black"><B>From:</B> Kelly Short</DIV> <DIV style=3D=
"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:02 AM</DIV> <D=
IV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com</DIV>=
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was=
[CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV>N=
ancy,<BR><BR>Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are mis=
directed! The true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but =
none of them by the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, o=
f such wisdom. I believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too =
would like to know where he would get such information to answer Question=
#4. So- not to pass the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hidi=
ng beneath the shell? Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. =
Squad?<BR><BR>And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only =
for a fleeting moment!<BR><BR>Kelly<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>=
From: NANCY POLCARO []<BR>Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM<BR>To: ca=
nslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] C=
CR - I offer this up for<BR>dissection)<BR><BR><BR>Kelly-catching up on m=
yt mail also-I thought your presentation was really <BR>good-I wish I was=
that far right now. Can you tell me where you got your <BR>info? I=
BD? Daily Graphs? Other source? Thanks nancy<BR><BR><BR>>From: "=
Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com><BR>>Reply-To: canslim@li=
sts.xmission.com<BR>>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>>Sub=
ject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for <BR>>di=
ssection)<BR>>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400<BR>><BR>>Win=
ston, et al:<BR>><BR>>I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM li=
st messages, and a thought<BR>>just occurred to me after reading Winst=
on's reply to Kelly below. (Sans<BR>>header I would have surely =
assumed it was Katherine's response!)<BR>><BR>>Your point #4 is a t=
rue Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further<BR>>thought, and is wha=
t I call an "a-ha". The reason? How bombarded we<BR>>=
;are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment<B=
R>>net "tools." But when it's all said and done--technical=
s,<BR>>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought a=
bout how<BR>>will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue=
and how<BR>>soon--is what it's all about, isn't it? You can't m=
easure it, you can<BR>>accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't fe=
el it. But if the<BR>>response to that question is not, albeit i=
n you gut, positive, you<BR>>shouldn't touch it, should you?<BR>><B=
R>>Thank you for that.<BR>><BR>>Duke<BR>><BR>><BR>>&nbs=
p; -----Original Message-----<BR>>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<BR>>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston =
Little<BR>>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM<BR>>To: canslim@l=
ists.xmission.com<BR>>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for=
dissection<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>Kelly:<BR>>My hope is that =
the note was of some help, but please keep the following<BR>>in mind:<=
BR>>1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond.<BR=
>>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree =
with<BR>>the point or issue stated or asked?<BR>>3. If you agree wi=
th the point, then is what is the significance of the<BR>>point or iss=
ue? The point may be true but of little value.<BR>>4. How will the res=
t of the market traders/investors/or others react to<BR>>the poi=
nt or issue, and how soon?<BR>>Depending on the results of the e=
valuate the points above (or others),<BR>>you may then want to respond=
and show the other person a different<BR>>perspective.<BR>><BR>>=
;<BR>>----- Original Message -----<BR>>From: Kelly Short <mailto=
:kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com><BR>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<B=
R>>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM<BR>>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM=
] CCR - I offer this up for dissection<BR>><BR>>Winston,<BR>><BR=
>>You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip=
<BR>>myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the =
newbie<BR>>pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- =
so close to<BR>>making it from the pond to the big river, then the big=
bad human ("M")<BR>>comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for =
your observations- I'll<BR>>keep hacking away.<BR>><BR>>Kelly<BR=
>> -----Original Message-----<BR>>From: Winston Little [mailt=
o:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]<BR>>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM<B=
R>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - =
I offer this up for dissection<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>Kelly:<BR>&=
gt;A few comments:<BR>>1. Chart pattern:<BR>>If cup-with handle (st=
art 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup<BR>>which is not ideal=
.<BR>>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 an=
d 05<BR>>Aug.<BR>>3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable)<BR>=
>4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok.<BR>>=
;5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in the=
<BR>>top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one ex=
ception<BR>>was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 3=
1.<BR>>6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$9=
98<BR>>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001=
, $1234<BR>>in Q2 of 2001 etc. Surprisingly the eps reported in =
Q2 of 2002 was<BR>>highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does =
this imply there may<BR>>be a re-statement in the works as day of reck=
oning approaches for CEO<BR>>and CFO?<BR>>CCR is believed to be a s=
ub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as<BR>>the slow economy per=
sists and consumers start to run out of cash?<BR>><BR>>----- Origin=
al Message -----<BR>>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.ne=
oris.com><BR>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>>Sent: Thursday,=
August 08, 2002 4:50 PM<BR>>Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up =
for dissection<BR>><BR>>CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc<BR>><BR>&g=
t;EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3<BR=
>>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in=
<BR>>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH for=
mation<BR>>(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa o=
r anything<BR>>IBD would show us). Thoughts?<BR>><BR>><BR>>IB=
D Ratings<BR>>Smart Select 99<BR>>EPS Rating 94<BR>>RPS 89<BR>&g=
t;Industry Group Rank A<BR>>S+P M+ROE A<BR>>A/D A+<BR>><BR>><=
BR>>Technical Rating 98<BR>>Fundamental Rating 96<BR>>Attractive=
ness Rating 99<BR>>Group's Technical Rating 79<BR>>Group's Fundamen=
tal Rating 86<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>Rank within Industry Group<B=
R>>Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32<BR>><BR>>Overall 100<BR>>Techn=
ical 100<BR>>Fundamental 91<BR>>Attriveness 100<BR>>Top 5 Compan=
ies w/in Group<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>CCR<BR>><BR>><BR>>=
<BR>>DORL<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>NCEN<BR>><BR>><BR>><=
BR>>NDE<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>FRE<BR>>Group % Chg to Date =
2%<BR>>Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4%<BR>>Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4%<=
BR>><BR>><BR>>Performance<BR>><BR>>Up/Down Vol 1.3<BR>>=
3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%<BR>>3 Yr. Sales Growth 25%<BR>>EPS Growth (Qua=
rterly) % Chg<BR>>Qtr -1 $0.64 5%<BR>>Qtr -2 $0.61 8%<BR>>Qtr -3=
$0.56 5%<BR>>Qtr -4 $0.53 8%<BR>>Qtr -5 $0.49 0%<BR>>Qtr -6 $0.=
49<BR>><BR>>Revenue Growth<BR>>Qtr -1 293,159 3%<BR>>Qtr -2 2=
85,799 1%<BR>>Qtr -3 283,199 1%<BR>>Qtr -4 281,332 3%<BR>>Qtr -5=
272,860 0%<BR>>Qtr -6 272,489<BR>><BR>> _____<BR>&g=
t;<BR>>For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for v=
iruses.<BR>><BR>>Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/<BR>><BR>>=
_____<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>___=
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e world's largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. <BR>http://www.hotmail=
.com<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission=
.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscrib=
e canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR>_______________=
_____________________________________________________________<BR>For your=
protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.<BR>Visit u=
s at http://www.neoris.com/<BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim"=
or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>=
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