Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:Technicals vs Fundamentals (was: NVDA)
Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2002 13:48:34 -0500
Next Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] Re:Technicals vs Fundamentals (was: NVDA) "Mike Gibbons"
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Hi Mike,
I understand your question and see that it was my wording that may have =
prompted it. Yes, my assessment is that you can never go wrong *in any =
market* by screening for technicals first. Why? Because:
(1) Stocks that have broken down technically are telling you something, =
despite the rosy fundamental picture. ("Buy on the fundamentals, sell on =
the technicals").
(2) Despite good fundamentals, a CANSLIM stock is not a valid buy unless =
it is also setting up technically. That helps you avoid a stock with =
good fundamentals that nobody wants to own. Afterall, if nobody's =
bidding the price up, you're not going to make any money in the =
intermediate term.
(3) Sometimes a good stock gets lost in the noise of fundamental =
screening. That is, if you screen too tightly for *all* the recommended =
CANSLIM fundamental characteristics and/or the data itself is missing =
and/or erroneous, you miss good potential candidates. Also, when a stock =
is in turnaround mode, you'll find that some fundamental indicators take =
a while to shape up. If you screen for the right technical action, it's =
hard to miss good candidates. Why? Because if you have a decent data =
source, it's pretty hard to have bad data on basic price/volume =
activity.
So, my preference is to look for *very* simple and basic fundamental =
requirements that would qualify a stock as a potential CANSLIM =
candidate. Simply, forward growth rate (>=3D15%) and liquidity (I =
personally use $10/90000 AvgVol, but opinions vary on that). I don't =
bother looking further if these requirements aren't met, technicals or =
no. Why? If it's not a growth stock, it's not CANSLIM. If it's not =
liquid enough to attract the institutional crowd, then I'm not =
interested. At that point, I then look to technical condition to draw my =
eye to strength, then narrow down the stocks and/or rank them based on a =
"preponderance of evidence" review of the fundamentals and the DDDD to =
which you refer because it's there you uncover potential =
business/accounting red flags and make an assessment as to the "N"(ew) =
that fuels future growth. (And by the way, I *love* the DDDD term...down =
and dirty due diligence....excellent!)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 1:31 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re:Technicals vs Fundamentals (was: NVDA)
Thanks Katherine,
I seem to be getting more than my fair share of coaching lately, I =
hope others are benefiting also.=20
So if I've understood, you look to the technicals first to alert you =
to stocks that warrant more careful scrutiny, then look at the =
fundamentals to screen for those that are CANSLIMish and finally do the =
real down and dirty due diligence ( I think I just invented a new =
acronym - DDDD).
Now when you say "the bear has taught me to favor technicals first", =
does that mean "in a bear market, I favor technicals first" or would =
this approach apply in all markets? If not, why not?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 5:55 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:Technicals vs Fundamentals (was: NVDA)
Hi Mike,
Thought I might first clear up Charley's reference to my comment =
about technicals. As I see it, technicals have *always* been important, =
but the Bear has taught me to favor technicals first in my =
analysis/mining techniques. This is a subtle shift in my thinking, maybe =
due to the Bear and maybe due to a new understanding of the CANSLIM =
discipline which continues to evolve day by day.=20
Your comments brought some things to mind:
(1) You can always make money using technicals as your only =
indicator, but the entry/exit has to be in the short term, as that is =
the only period in which fundamentals would have no influence on the =
stock movement. Intermediate term and beyond, the fundamentals are what =
drive the business and create value. In other words, the earnings and =
cash stream, reinvested in the business for growth or distributed to =
shareholders via dividends, create value in the underlying investment. =
If trading in the short term, you would never wait for the entire period =
of intermediate term consolidation to form, but instead would take =
advantage of the current directional ride. For example, in a cup & =
handle, you would essentially hitch a ride on the right side of a cup. =
You would also trade, e.g., reversals from extremely oversold =
conditions, regardless of the relative strength of the stock to the =
market. In some cases, you'd be bottom fishing. That's fine in a short =
term trade because you don't care what the next direction is going to be =
once you exit. In intermediate term and beyond, the next direction is =
what matters the most, because you are riding an underlying wave of =
movement that covers a longer period of time. Essentially, the short =
term trader gets *really* close to the chart and looks for ups/downs to =
ride. The intermediate term trader steps back 3 feet and looks for the =
underlying movement, up or down, with the close up price wiggles =
smoothed out. The long term trader steps back 7 feet and looks for =
underlying movement, with most all of the wiggles smoothed out.
(2) If you have 200 stocks with identical technicals and you are =
trading intermediate term and beyond, how would you choose between them? =
Fundamentals and due diligence allow you to assess the potential return =
on investment given (1) above. That, in turn, allows you to eliminate =
some and rank the remainder.
(3) WON's wording is "Buy on the fundamentals, sell on the =
technicals" meaning buy based on the fundamental characteristics of the =
company using technicals for entry, but on the flipside, consider only =
technicals when selling because fundamental indicators don't tell you =
that sales and profits are deteriorating until after the fact. Look at =
any highflier from the last Bull. Take CSCO as example. At the time the =
price peaked around 80-85 in 2000, the fundamentals looked peachy. ROE, =
sales/earnings growth, etc. The technicals topped and began to slide, =
but it wasn't until 3 or 4 quarters later that it be came apparent that =
fundamentals were stinky.=20
(4) When you select and enter a stock well under intermediate term =
rules, the longer the underlying upward movement in the market, the more =
likely it is that you will have a "big winner." During the Bear, the =
upward waves have been short-lived. The best you could hope for was an =
excellent move while the market was in an intermediate term rally within =
the longer term bear. That means the exits are designed to protect =
capital. Despite a good company, the majority of stocks eventually get =
caught in the downdraft. However, if you are in the habit of catching =
things as they begin their ascent and the market as a whole moves from =
Bear rally mode to sustainable Bull mode, you're on for the ride =
already. That will allow you to stay with a winning position much =
longer, despite the near term price wiggles.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, August 11, 2002 4:47 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NVDA
I didn't realize what a pandora's box I was opening , but I'm glad =
I did raise the lid on NVDA.
What I learned was:
a.. an excellent "C" and "A" can be misleading=20
b.. The technicals such as RS, up/down volume, etc were =
indicators that there's something rotten in the state of Denmark, =
despite the fundamentals
Which would appear to confirm that everything you need to know is =
already in the tape.
Question: is this only true in a bear market? (I'm referring to =
Katherine's statement quoted by Charley), and if it's universally true =
then can't the lazy one's among us (and I include myself in that =
category) simply cheat by swing trading patterns, not CANSLIM =
fundamentals?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Chazmoore@aol.com
Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 5:49 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] NVDA
A week or so ago, (time passes so fast), Katherine made a =
statement to the effect that the technicals are more important than the =
fundamentals in a bear market. I have now observed this to be true on =
numerous recent occasions, but my first impulse is to look for =
fundamental excuses for a falling stock price.=20
Quoting from a book I am reading, "The fundamental work answers =
the question what, and the technical side of the equation answers the =
question when." , points out how important it is to have all the facts.=20
Thanks for calling my attention to the SEC investigation. It is =
so discouraging to learn of these repeated accounting problems. One of =
these days I will stop believing in Santa Claus.=20
Charley=20
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<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I understand your question and see that it was my wording that may =
have=20
prompted it. Yes, my assessment is that you can never go wrong *in any =
market*=20
by screening for technicals first. Why? Because:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(1) Stocks that have broken down technically are telling you =
something,=20
despite the rosy fundamental picture. ("Buy on the fundamentals, sell on =
the=20
technicals").</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(2) Despite good fundamentals, a CANSLIM stock is not a valid buy =
unless it=20
is also setting up technically. That helps you avoid a stock with good=20
fundamentals that nobody wants to own. Afterall, if nobody's bidding the =
price=20
up, you're not going to make any money in the intermediate term.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(3) Sometimes a good stock gets lost in the noise of fundamental =
screening.=20
That is, if you screen too tightly for *all* the recommended CANSLIM =
fundamental=20
characteristics and/or the data itself is missing and/or erroneous, you =
miss=20
good potential candidates. Also, when a stock is in turnaround mode, =
you'll find=20
that some fundamental indicators take a while to shape up. If you screen =
for the=20
right technical action, it's hard to miss good candidates. Why? Because =
if you=20
have a decent data source, it's pretty hard to have bad data on basic=20
price/volume activity.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>So, my preference is to look for *very* simple and basic =
fundamental=20
requirements that would qualify a stock as a potential CANSLIM =
candidate.=20
Simply, forward growth rate (>=3D15%) and liquidity (I personally use =
$10/90000=20
AvgVol, but opinions vary on that). I don't bother looking further if =
these=20
requirements aren't met, technicals or no. Why? If it's not a growth =
stock, it's=20
not CANSLIM. If it's not liquid enough to attract the institutional =
crowd, then=20
I'm not interested. At that point, I then look to technical condition to =
draw my=20
eye to strength, then narrow down the stocks and/or rank them based on a =
"preponderance of evidence" review of the fundamentals and the DDDD to =
which you=20
refer because it's there you uncover potential business/accounting red =
flags and=20
make an assessment as to the "N"(ew) that fuels future growth. (And by =
the way,=20
I *love* the DDDD term...down and dirty due =
diligence....excellent!)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmike@proactech.com href=3D"mailto:mike@proactech.com">Mike =
Gibbons</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 14, =
2002 1:31=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
Re:Technicals vs=20
Fundamentals (was: NVDA)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Thanks Katherine,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>I=20
seem to be getting more than my fair share of coaching lately, I hope =
others=20
are benefiting also. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>So=20
if I've understood, you look to the technicals first to alert you to =
stocks=20
that warrant more careful scrutiny, then look at the fundamentals to =
screen=20
for those that are CANSLIMish and finally do the real down and =
dirty due=20
diligence ( I think I just invented a new acronym - =
DDDD).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D510260918-14082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Now=20
when you say "the bear has taught me to favor technicals first", does =
that=20
mean "in a bear market, I favor technicals first" or would this =
approach apply=20
in all markets? If not, why not?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 14, 2002 5:55 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Re:Technicals vs=20
Fundamentals (was: NVDA)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thought I might first clear up Charley's reference to my =
comment about=20
technicals. As I see it, technicals have *always* been important, =
but the=20
Bear has taught me to favor technicals first in my analysis/mining=20
techniques. This is a subtle shift in my thinking, maybe due to the =
Bear and=20
maybe due to a new understanding of the CANSLIM discipline =
which=20
continues to evolve day by day. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Your comments brought some things to mind:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(1) You can always make money using technicals as your only =
indicator,=20
but the entry/exit has to be in the short term, as that is the only =
period=20
in which fundamentals would have no influence on the stock movement. =
Intermediate term and beyond, the fundamentals are what drive the =
business=20
and create value. In other words, the earnings and cash stream, =
reinvested=20
in the business for growth or distributed to shareholders via =
dividends,=20
create value in the underlying investment. If trading in the short =
term, you=20
would never wait for the entire period of intermediate term =
consolidation to=20
form, but instead would take advantage of the current directional =
ride. For=20
example, in a cup & handle, you would essentially hitch a ride =
on the=20
right side of a cup. You would also trade, e.g., reversals from =
extremely=20
oversold conditions, regardless of the relative strength of the =
stock to the=20
market. In some cases, you'd be bottom fishing. That's fine in a =
short term=20
trade because you don't care what the next direction is going to be =
once you=20
exit. In intermediate term and beyond, the next direction is what =
matters=20
the most, because you are riding an underlying wave of movement that =
covers=20
a longer period of time. Essentially, the short term trader gets =
*really*=20
close to the chart and looks for ups/downs to ride. The intermediate =
term=20
trader steps back 3 feet and looks for the underlying movement, up =
or down,=20
with the close up price wiggles smoothed out. The long term trader =
steps=20
back 7 feet and looks for underlying movement, with most all of the =
wiggles=20
smoothed out.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(2) If you have 200 stocks with identical technicals and you =
are=20
trading intermediate term and beyond, how would you choose between =
them?=20
Fundamentals and due diligence allow you to assess the potential =
return on=20
investment given (1) above. That, in turn, allows you to eliminate =
some and=20
rank the remainder.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(3) WON's wording is "Buy on the fundamentals, sell on the =
technicals"=20
meaning buy based on the fundamental characteristics of the company =
using=20
technicals for entry, but on the flipside, consider only technicals =
when=20
selling because fundamental indicators don't tell you that sales and =
profits=20
are deteriorating until after the fact. Look at any highflier from =
the last=20
Bull. Take CSCO as example. At the time the price peaked around =
80-85 in=20
2000, the fundamentals looked peachy. ROE, sales/earnings =
growth, etc.=20
The technicals topped and began to slide, but it wasn't until 3 or 4 =
quarters later that it be came apparent that fundamentals were =
stinky.=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(4) When you select and enter a stock well under intermediate =
term=20
rules, the longer the underlying upward movement in the market, the =
more=20
likely it is that you will have a "big winner." During the Bear, the =
upward=20
waves have been short-lived. The best you could hope for was an =
excellent=20
move while the market was in an intermediate term rally within the =
longer=20
term bear. That means the exits are designed to protect capital. =
Despite a=20
good company, the majority of stocks eventually get caught in the =
downdraft.=20
However, if you are in the habit of catching things as they begin =
their=20
ascent and the market as a whole moves from Bear rally mode to =
sustainable=20
Bull mode, you're on for the ride already. That will allow you to =
stay with=20
a winning position much longer, despite the near term price =
wiggles.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com=20
href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com">Mike Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 11, =
2002 4:47=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
NVDA</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>I didn't realize what a pandora's box I was opening , but =
I'm glad=20
I did raise the lid on NVDA.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>What I learned was:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>an excellent "C" and "A" can=20
be misleading</FONT></SPAN>=20
<LI><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002></SPAN><FONT face=3DTahoma=20
color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN class=3D500042409-11082002>The =
technicals such=20
as RS, up/down volume, etc were indicators that there's =
something rotten=20
in the state of Denmark, despite the =
fundamentals</SPAN></FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D500042409-11082002>Which would appear to confirm that =
everything you=20
need to know is already in the tape.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D500042409-11082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D500042409-11082002>Question: is this only true in a bear =
market?=20
(I'm referring to Katherine's statement quoted by Charley), and if =
it's=20
universally true then can't the lazy one's among us (and I include =
myself=20
in that category) simply cheat by swing trading patterns, not =
CANSLIM=20
fundamentals?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D500042409-11082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of=20
</B>Chazmoore@aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, August 10, 2002 =
5:49=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
[CANSLIM]=20
NVDA<BR><BR></FONT></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT =
size=3D2>A week=20
or so ago, (time passes so fast), Katherine made a statement to =
the=20
effect that the technicals are more important than the =
fundamentals in a=20
bear market. I have now observed this to be true on numerous =
recent=20
occasions, but my first impulse is to look for fundamental =
excuses for a=20
falling stock price. <BR>Quoting from a book I am reading, "The=20
fundamental work answers the question <I>what,</I> and the =
technical=20
side of the equation answers the question <I>when." </I>, points =
out how=20
important it is to have all the facts. <BR>Thanks for calling my =
attention to the SEC investigation. It is so discouraging to =
learn of=20
these repeated accounting problems. One of these days I will =
stop=20
believing in Santa Claus. <BR><BR>Charley</FONT>=20
=
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>=
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Next Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] Re:Technicals vs Fundamentals (was: NVDA) "Mike Gibbons"
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