Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 06:57:21 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hermann & Tom,=20 No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is = the reason why a back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to = match their numbers. =20 Earnings Growth Rate % This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a = 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second = quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the = sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior = fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing = four quarters of earnings per share.=20 The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two = factors;=20 a.. Availability of data=20 b.. Positive earnings=20 If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will = appear.=20 The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least = three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional = earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of = this data item.=20 - --Katherine - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, ANSI earned 30 | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined from 30 cents to = 21 | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, so I can't = explain | the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 year cycle, while DGO = (where | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years. |=20 | ----- Original Message ----- | From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net> | To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI |=20 |=20 | > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net> | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400 | > | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with "calculated" = long | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted | calculations) | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents | in | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year basis. = On | the | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next = year | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds = market | > norms. | > | > ----- Original Message ----- | > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com> | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM | > | > | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%. | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's | > .73? |=20 |=20 |=20 | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%." | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago") | one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three | years. |=20 | If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer | to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do | you know? |=20 | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were | used. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV>Hermann & Tom, </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph=20 help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is the reason = why a=20 back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to match their = numbers.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Earnings Growth Rate %</STRONG></DIV> <P>This item is calculated by using a <EM><FONT color=3D#0000ff>least = squares=20 regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on = a=20 trailing four-quarter count.</FONT></EM> For example, if a stock is = currently in=20 its second quarter, the first period used in this calculation will = consist of=20 the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the = prior fiscal=20 year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing four = quarters=20 of earnings per share. <BR><BR>The amount of time used to calculate the = Growth=20 Rate is based on two factors;=20 <UL> <LI>Availability of data=20 <LI>Positive earnings </LI></UL> <DIV>If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based=20 on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will appear.=20 <BR><BR>The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at = least=20 three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a=20 four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional earnings = further=20 back in time, will not be used in the calculation of this data item. = </DIV> <P></P> <DIV>--Katherine</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>----- Original Message -----=20 <DIV>From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A>></DIV>= <DIV>To: <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ></DIV> <DIV>Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM</DIV> <DIV>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>| Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, = ANSI=20 earned 30<BR>| cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined = from 30=20 cents to 21<BR>| cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, = so I=20 can't explain<BR>| the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 = year cycle,=20 while DGO (where<BR>| the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.<BR>| = <BR>|=20 - ----- Original Message -----<BR>| From: "Hermann Ertl" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:hertl@attglobal.net">hertl@attglobal.net</A>><BR>| To: = <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>|=20 Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM<BR>| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = ANSI<BR>|=20 <BR>| <BR>| > From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A>><BR>| = >=20 Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400<BR>| ><BR>| > Jack, a good = example=20 of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long<BR>| > term = statistics.=20 In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted<BR>| calculations)<BR>| = > a=20 total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents<BR>|=20 in<BR>| > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 = year=20 basis. On<BR>| the<BR>| > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this = year and=20 77 cents next year<BR>| > continue the short term trend higher at a = rate that=20 well exceeds market<BR>| > norms.<BR>| ><BR>| > ----- Original = Message=20 - -----<BR>| > From: "Jack Tencza" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:jtenz@yahoo.com">jtenz@yahoo.com</A>><BR>| > Sent: = Saturday,=20 August 17, 2002 9:34 AM<BR>| ><BR>| ><BR>| > IBD vital = statistics shows=20 ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%.<BR>| > Am I correct in assuming this is a = straight=20 line<BR>| > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's<BR>| = >=20 .73?<BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at = - -27%."<BR>| In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. = ago")<BR>| one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for = three<BR>|=20 years.<BR>| <BR>| If you supply data for four years we may can figure = out the=20 answer<BR>| to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, = or=20 do<BR>| you know?<BR>| <BR>| Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. = Maybe=20 quarterly results were<BR>| used.<BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| = - -<BR>| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| -<BR>| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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