Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 07:10:35 -0500
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Morning Tom,
Yes, they use the same methodology. I recalled we've discussed the 3 vs =
5 yr difference between IBD and DGO data on the list recently, so didn't =
mention that specifically. Here's the IBD definition from their help =
files:
EPS Growth Rate %, 3 YEAR
The compound 3-year growth rate calculated using the least squares fit =
over the latest two to three years' earnings per share on a running =
12-month basis. Growth rate will be calculated only if there is a =
minimum of eight trailing 4-quarter periods of positive earnings (uses a =
minimum of 11 quarters of data).=20
- -Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:01 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Hi Katherine,
What I don't know is if IBD is also using the regression method. The =
only thing I ever saw confirmed is that they use only a 3 year period, =
while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Hermann & Tom,=20
No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the =
DailyGraph help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is =
the reason why a back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to =
match their numbers.
Earnings Growth Rate %
This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a =
3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing =
four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second =
quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the =
sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior =
fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing =
four quarters of earnings per share.=20
The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two =
factors;=20
a.. Availability of data=20
b.. Positive earnings=20
If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings =
(based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will =
appear.=20
The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least =
three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. =
If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional =
earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of =
this data item.=20
--Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
| Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, ANSI earned =
30
| cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined from 30 cents =
to 21
| cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, so I can't =
explain
| the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 year cycle, while DGO =
(where
| the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
|=20
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
| To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
| Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
|=20
|=20
| > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
| > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
| >
| > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with =
"calculated" long
| > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted
| calculations)
| > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and =
21 cents
| in
| > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year =
basis. On
| the
| > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next =
year
| > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds =
market
| > norms.
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
| > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
| >
| >
| > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%.
| > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line
| > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's
| > .73?
|=20
|=20
|=20
| Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%."
| In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago")
| one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three
| years.
|=20
| If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer
| to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do
| you know?
|=20
| Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were
| used.
|=20
|=20
|=20
|=20
|=20
| -
| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
|=20
|=20
|=20
|=20
| -
| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.=20
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<DIV>Morning Tom,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Yes, they use the same methodology. I recalled we've discussed the =
3 vs 5=20
yr difference between IBD and DGO data on the list recently, so didn't =
mention=20
that specifically. Here's the IBD definition from their help =
files:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>EPS Growth Rate %</STRONG>, <STRONG>3 YEAR</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>The compound 3-year growth rate calculated using the least squares =
fit over=20
the latest two to three years=92 earnings per share on a running =
12-month basis.=20
Growth rate will be calculated only if there is a minimum of eight =
trailing=20
4-quarter periods of positive earnings (uses a minimum of 11 quarters of =
data).=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 18, 2002 =
7:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
ANSI</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>What I don't know is if IBD is also using the =
regression=20
method. The only thing I ever saw confirmed is that they use only a 3 =
year=20
period, while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hermann & Tom, </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the=20
DailyGraph help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach =
is the=20
reason why a back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to match =
their=20
numbers.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>Earnings Growth Rate %</STRONG></DIV>
<P>This item is calculated by using a <EM><FONT color=3D#0000ff>least =
squares=20
regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based =
on a=20
trailing four-quarter count.</FONT></EM> For example, if a stock is =
currently=20
in its second quarter, the first period used in this calculation will =
consist=20
of the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the =
prior=20
fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next =
trailing four=20
quarters of earnings per share. <BR><BR>The amount of time used to =
calculate=20
the Growth Rate is based on two factors;=20
<UL>
<LI>Availability of data=20
<LI>Positive earnings </LI></UL>
<DIV>If a stock does not have at least three years of positive =
earnings (based=20
on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will =
appear.=20
<BR><BR>The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of =
at least=20
three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per =
share. If a=20
four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional =
earnings=20
further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of this data =
item.=20
</DIV>
<P></P>
<DIV>--Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV>From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A>></DIV>=
<DIV>To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>| Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In =
1998, ANSI=20
earned 30<BR>| cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined =
from 30=20
cents to 21<BR>| cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be =
less, so I=20
can't explain<BR>| the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 =
year=20
cycle, while DGO (where<BR>| the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 =
years.<BR>|=20
<BR>| ----- Original Message -----<BR>| From: "Hermann Ertl" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:hertl@attglobal.net">hertl@attglobal.net</A>><BR>| =
To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>|=20
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM<BR>| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] =
ANSI<BR>|=20
<BR>| <BR>| > From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A>><BR>| =
>=20
Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400<BR>| ><BR>| > Jack, a good =
example=20
of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long<BR>| > term=20
statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted<BR>|=20
calculations)<BR>| > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 =
cents=20
in 2000 and 21 cents<BR>| in<BR>| > 2001. So 2001 looks good by =
comparison,=20
but lousy on a 3 year basis. On<BR>| the<BR>| > other hand, the =
forecasts=20
of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next year<BR>| > continue the =
short term=20
trend higher at a rate that well exceeds market<BR>| > norms.<BR>|=20
><BR>| > ----- Original Message -----<BR>| > From: "Jack =
Tencza"=20
<<A href=3D"mailto:jtenz@yahoo.com">jtenz@yahoo.com</A>><BR>| =
> Sent:=20
Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM<BR>| ><BR>| ><BR>| > IBD =
vital=20
statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%.<BR>| > Am I correct in =
assuming=20
this is a straight line<BR>| > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. =
ago,=20
today it's<BR>| > .73?<BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| Tom, your data do not =
explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%."<BR>| In order to calculate a three year =
trend=20
(Jack says, "3 yrs. ago")<BR>| one needs data for four years - you =
supplied=20
only data for three<BR>| years.<BR>| <BR>| If you supply data for four =
years=20
we may can figure out the answer<BR>| to Jack's question how the three =
year=20
trend is calculated, or do<BR>| you know?<BR>| <BR>| Maybe the problem =
lies=20
somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were<BR>| used.<BR>| <BR>| =
<BR>| <BR>|=20
<BR>| <BR>| -<BR>| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>| =
- -In the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| <BR>| -<BR>| -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>| =
- -In the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email. </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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