Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

From: Jack Tencza <jtenz@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 05:15:39 -0700 (PDT)
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Holy Cow! Katherine thanks. Seems like I remember
seeing this somewhere. Where did you find this in IBD
help?

Jack
- --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
> Morning Tom,
> 
> Yes, they use the same methodology. I recalled we've
> discussed the 3 vs 5 yr difference between IBD and
> DGO data on the list recently, so didn't mention
> that specifically. Here's the IBD definition from
> their help files:
> 
> EPS Growth Rate %, 3 YEAR
> The compound 3-year growth rate calculated using the
> least squares fit over the latest two to three
> years' earnings per share on a running 12-month
> basis. Growth rate will be calculated only if there
> is a minimum of eight trailing 4-quarter periods of
> positive earnings (uses a minimum of 11 quarters of
> data). 
> 
> -Katherine
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Tom Worley 
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:01 AM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> 
> 
>   Hi Katherine,
> 
>   What I don't know is if IBD is also using the
> regression method. The only thing I ever saw
> confirmed is that they use only a 3 year period,
> while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Katherine Malm 
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> 
> 
>   Hermann & Tom, 
> 
>   No mystery, just need to know the definition, this
> one from the DailyGraph help files (highlighting is
> mine). The regression approach is the reason why a
> back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to
> match their numbers.
> 
>   Earnings Growth Rate %
>   This item is calculated by using a least squares
> regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings
> per share based on a trailing four-quarter count.
> For example, if a stock is currently in its second
> quarter, the first period used in this calculation
> will consist of the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current
> fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior fiscal year).
> Each successive period will be based on the next
> trailing four quarters of earnings per share. 
> 
>   The amount of time used to calculate the Growth
> Rate is based on two factors; 
> 
>     a.. Availability of data 
>     b.. Positive earnings 
>   If a stock does not have at least three years of
> positive earnings (based on the trailing
> four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will
> appear. 
> 
>   The amount of time used for this calculation will
> consist of at least three years but no more than
> five years of positive earnings per share. If a
> four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and
> additional earnings further back in time, will not
> be used in the calculation of this data item. 
> 
>   --Katherine
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
>   To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> 
> 
>   | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better.
> In 1998, ANSI earned 30
>   | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings
> declined from 30 cents to 21
>   | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be
> less, so I can't explain
>   | the -27%.  You should note that IBD uses a 3
> year cycle, while DGO (where
>   | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
>   | 
>   | ----- Original Message -----
>   | From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
>   | To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>   | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
>   | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
>   | 
>   | 
>   | > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
>   | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
>   | >
>   | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be
> careful with "calculated" long
>   | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by
> DGO's adjusted
>   | calculations)
>   | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9
> cents in 2000 and 21 cents
>   | in
>   | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but
> lousy on a 3 year basis. On
>   | the
>   | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this
> year and 77 cents next year
>   | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate
> that well exceeds market
>   | > norms.
>   | >
>   | > ----- Original Message -----
>   | > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
>   | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
>   | >
>   | >
>   | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at
> -27%.
>   | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight
> line
>   | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today
> it's
>   | > .73?
>   | 
>   | 
>   | 
>   | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at
> -27%."
>   | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack
> says, "3 yrs. ago")
>   | one needs data for four years - you supplied
> only data for three
>   | years.
>   | 
>   | If you supply data for four years we may can
> figure out the answer
>   | to Jack's question how the three year trend is
> calculated, or do
>   | you know?
>   | 
>   | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe
> quarterly results were
>   | used.
>   | 
>   | 
>   | 
>   | 
>   | 
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>   | 
>   | 
>   | 
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> 


=====
Jack

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