Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

From: Jack Tencza <jtenz@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 05:11:29 -0700 (PDT)
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Good morning all. Good to see others up so early too.

Tom, thanks for your answer yesterday. Based on your
1999-2003 I calculated that 1998 EPS should be around
.30. However, I couldn't confirm it. Moneycentral.msn
did not have the data in their 10 year financial
summary, at least for non-subscribers. I'm going to
call IBD on Monday.

I'm not sure why this "hunt for an answer" is so
important to me but something to do while watching
some PGA yesterday.

Jack

- --- Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:
> Hi Katherine,
> 
> What I don't know is if IBD is also using the
> regression method. The only thing I ever saw
> confirmed is that they use only a 3 year period,
> while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: Katherine Malm 
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
> Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> 
> 
> Hermann & Tom, 
> 
> No mystery, just need to know the definition, this
> one from the DailyGraph help files (highlighting is
> mine). The regression approach is the reason why a
> back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to
> match their numbers.
> 
> Earnings Growth Rate %
> This item is calculated by using a least squares
> regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings
> per share based on a trailing four-quarter count.
> For example, if a stock is currently in its second
> quarter, the first period used in this calculation
> will consist of the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current
> fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior fiscal year).
> Each successive period will be based on the next
> trailing four quarters of earnings per share. 
> 
> The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate
> is based on two factors; 
> 
>   a.. Availability of data 
>   b.. Positive earnings 
> If a stock does not have at least three years of
> positive earnings (based on the trailing
> four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will
> appear. 
> 
> The amount of time used for this calculation will
> consist of at least three years but no more than
> five years of positive earnings per share. If a
> four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and
> additional earnings further back in time, will not
> be used in the calculation of this data item. 
> 
> --Katherine
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> 
> 
> | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In
> 1998, ANSI earned 30
> | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings
> declined from 30 cents to 21
> | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be
> less, so I can't explain
> | the -27%.  You should note that IBD uses a 3 year
> cycle, while DGO (where
> | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
> | 
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
> | To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
> | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
> | 
> | 
> | > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
> | >
> | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be
> careful with "calculated" long
> | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by
> DGO's adjusted
> | calculations)
> | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9
> cents in 2000 and 21 cents
> | in
> | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but
> lousy on a 3 year basis. On
> | the
> | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year
> and 77 cents next year
> | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate
> that well exceeds market
> | > norms.
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
> | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
> | >
> | >
> | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at
> -27%.
> | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line
> | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today
> it's
> | > .73?
> | 
> | 
> | 
> | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at
> -27%."
> | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack
> says, "3 yrs. ago")
> | one needs data for four years - you supplied only
> data for three
> | years.
> | 
> | If you supply data for four years we may can
> figure out the answer
> | to Jack's question how the three year trend is
> calculated, or do
> | you know?
> | 
> | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe
> quarterly results were
> | used.
> | 
> | 
> | 
> | 
> | 
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> | 
> | 
> | 
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> 


=====
Jack

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