Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 07:25:13 -0500
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Hi Jack,

Yes, copied the definition in the help files at IBD. Click on the Stock
Checkup for ANSI (or any stock) and there is a small gray rectangular "Help"
button to the top right. There's a glossary of terms, etc. Same is true for
DailyGraphs Online, where they have a complete Help file available from the
menu selections.

Katherine

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:15 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI


| Holy Cow! Katherine thanks. Seems like I remember
| seeing this somewhere. Where did you find this in IBD
| help?
|
| Jack
| --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
| > Morning Tom,
| >
| > Yes, they use the same methodology. I recalled we've
| > discussed the 3 vs 5 yr difference between IBD and
| > DGO data on the list recently, so didn't mention
| > that specifically. Here's the IBD definition from
| > their help files:
| >
| > EPS Growth Rate %, 3 YEAR
| > The compound 3-year growth rate calculated using the
| > least squares fit over the latest two to three
| > years' earnings per share on a running 12-month
| > basis. Growth rate will be calculated only if there
| > is a minimum of eight trailing 4-quarter periods of
| > positive earnings (uses a minimum of 11 quarters of
| > data).
| >
| > -Katherine
| >   ----- Original Message -----
| >   From: Tom Worley
| >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
| >   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:01 AM
| >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
| >
| >
| >   Hi Katherine,
| >
| >   What I don't know is if IBD is also using the
| > regression method. The only thing I ever saw
| > confirmed is that they use only a 3 year period,
| > while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.
| >
| >   ----- Original Message -----
| >   From: Katherine Malm
| >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
| >   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM
| >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
| >
| >
| >   Hermann & Tom,
| >
| >   No mystery, just need to know the definition, this
| > one from the DailyGraph help files (highlighting is
| > mine). The regression approach is the reason why a
| > back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to
| > match their numbers.
| >
| >   Earnings Growth Rate %
| >   This item is calculated by using a least squares
| > regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings
| > per share based on a trailing four-quarter count.
| > For example, if a stock is currently in its second
| > quarter, the first period used in this calculation
| > will consist of the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current
| > fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior fiscal year).
| > Each successive period will be based on the next
| > trailing four quarters of earnings per share.
| >
| >   The amount of time used to calculate the Growth
| > Rate is based on two factors;
| >
| >     a.. Availability of data
| >     b.. Positive earnings
| >   If a stock does not have at least three years of
| > positive earnings (based on the trailing
| > four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will
| > appear.
| >
| >   The amount of time used for this calculation will
| > consist of at least three years but no more than
| > five years of positive earnings per share. If a
| > four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and
| > additional earnings further back in time, will not
| > be used in the calculation of this data item.
| >
| >   --Katherine
| >
| >   ----- Original Message -----
| >   From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
| >   To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
| >   Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
| >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
| >
| >
| >   | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better.
| > In 1998, ANSI earned 30
| >   | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings
| > declined from 30 cents to 21
| >   | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be
| > less, so I can't explain
| >   | the -27%.  You should note that IBD uses a 3
| > year cycle, while DGO (where
| >   | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
| >   |
| >   | ----- Original Message -----
| >   | From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
| >   | To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
| >   | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
| >   | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI
| >   |
| >   |
| >   | > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
| >   | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
| >   | >
| >   | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be
| > careful with "calculated" long
| >   | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by
| > DGO's adjusted
| >   | calculations)
| >   | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9
| > cents in 2000 and 21 cents
| >   | in
| >   | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but
| > lousy on a 3 year basis. On
| >   | the
| >   | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this
| > year and 77 cents next year
| >   | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate
| > that well exceeds market
| >   | > norms.
| >   | >
| >   | > ----- Original Message -----
| >   | > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
| >   | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
| >   | >
| >   | >
| >   | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at
| > -27%.
| >   | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight
| > line
| >   | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today
| > it's
| >   | > .73?
| >   |
| >   |
| >   |
| >   | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at
| > -27%."
| >   | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack
| > says, "3 yrs. ago")
| >   | one needs data for four years - you supplied
| > only data for three
| >   | years.
| >   |
| >   | If you supply data for four years we may can
| > figure out the answer
| >   | to Jack's question how the three year trend is
| > calculated, or do
| >   | you know?
| >   |
| >   | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe
| > quarterly results were
| >   | used.



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