Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 07:27:41 -0400
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Curt, if you had lurked here more than a few days, you might have caught =
the fact that commercial solicitation is prohibited.
If that's not what you intended, then I suggest you introduce yourself =
and tell us why you have joined our group.
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Curt Corley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:16 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter
I've been lurking here for a few days, and I would like to put in my two =
cents' worth about the question of whether we're in a bull or a bear =
market. I'd also like to give my personal opinion of what the ultimate =
"M" meter is. But first, I want to get some definitions down to make =
sure we're speaking the same language here. I will use the definitions =
that are put forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described =
in the book "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by by Robert D. =
Edwards, John Magee, W. H. C. Bassetti (Editor). =20
=20
What's a bull/bear market?
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
In "TA of Stock Trends," the authors state that a primary trend is the =
general direction of price movement over a year or more. A bull market =
is a primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in price. A =
bear market is a primary trend containing lower highs and lower lows in =
price. Within the primary trend are secondary trends. Secondary trends =
last from 3 weeks to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify =
as bear or bull markets. The secondary trends are merely the =
corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a bear markets. =
In addition to the primary and secondary trends, there are minor trends =
that usually last less than 6 days and rarely as long as 3 weeks, but =
they are of little importance here. The main thing that I would like to =
get across is this: Using the definitions just described, you can't =
talk about bear and bull markets unless you're talking about a time =
frame of about a year.
=20
What do we use for an "M" Meter?
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Now that the definitions are out of the way, we can talk about how to =
get in and out of bull markets easily using our "M" meter. If you're =
having CWs (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a bear market, you might =
try CANSLIM'ing during a rally within the bear market. You can use our =
"M" meter to detect rallies as well. The "M" meter is so simple that I =
feel like a few of you are not going to believe me and will tell me to =
pack sand - but, oh well, here it goes. The "M" meters are moving =
averages. =20
For a good explanation as to why this works, visit =
http://www.401k-maximizer.com/. =20
=20
How do we use the "M" Meter?
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
The index you choose to graph will depend on the kind of security you're =
investing in. For general growth stocks, the QQQ ticker symbol (NASDAQ) =
is a good one to use. For especially small cap growth stocks, you can =
choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell 2000. To get a =
feel for whether you're in a bull/bear market, plot the index against a =
200-day moving average. To get a feel for whether you're in a =
rally/correction, plot the index against a 50-day moving average. The =
reasons we choose a 200-day average for bear/bull "M" indicator are =
because it is: (1) a length of time that approximates the number of =
trading days in one year - the minimum time frame for a bull/bear =
market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by many =
elephants. The reasons we choose a 50-day average for the =
rally/correction "M" indicator are fairly the same: (1) it's a highly =
watched indicator, (2) it is a time frame that makes a good compromise =
between getting you in and out of a rally without whipsawing you in and =
out.
=20
Defense of the "M" Meter
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Try plotting a 3-year graph of QQQ against a 200-day EMA moving average. =
Imagine yourself getting in on that market when the prices crossed =
above the 200-day MA and getting out of the market when the prices =
crossed below the 200-day MA. You might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 =
times between April and September of 2000 (allowing you to participate =
in the rallies of June and August). But you would have stayed out of =
the bear market since September.
=20
Are we still in a bear market?
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Truth is: nobody knows yet, because enough time hasn't passed. That's =
the way it goes. In a reversal like this, you never know whether it's =
rally or the start of a new bull market until enough time has passed =
(like the saying goes: Hindsight is 20/20). But whether we're truly in =
a bull market or bear market is irrelevant to me. All I care about is =
our meter. And the meter says this. Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally =
crossed above the 50-day EMA, but it's still a long way from reaching =
the 200-day EMA. I might get into stocks slowly and cautiously right =
now, but I'm certainly not ready to jump in with both feet.
=20
- -- Curt
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Curt, if you had lurked here more than a few =
days, you=20
might have caught the fact that commercial solicitation is=20
prohibited.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>If that's not what you intended, then I suggest =
you=20
introduce yourself and tell us why you have joined our =
group.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcjcorley@hiwaay.net href=3D"mailto:cjcorley@hiwaay.net">Curt =
Corley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:16 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I=92ve been lurking here =
for a few=20
days, and I would like to put in my two cents=92 worth about the =
question of=20
whether we=92re in a bull or a bear market.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>I=92d also like to give my personal opinion of what the ultimate =
=93M=94 meter=20
is.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>But first, I want to =
get some=20
definitions down to make sure we=92re speaking the same language =
here.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I will use the definitions =
that are put=20
forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described in the book=20
=93Technical Analysis of Stock Trends=94 by </SPAN></FONT><SPAN =
class=3DSpellE><FONT=20
face=3DVerdana size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Verdana">by</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT=20
face=3DVerdana size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Verdana"> <A=20
href=3D"http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=3Dbooks=
&field-author=3DEdwards%2C%20Robert%20D./102-0711160-4510545">Robert =
D. Edwards</A>, <A=20
href=3D"http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=3Dbooks=
&field-author=3DMagee%2C%20John/102-0711160-4510545">John=20
Magee</A>, <A=20
href=3D"http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=3Dbooks=
&field-author=3DBassetti%2C%20W.%20H.%20C./102-0711160-4510545">W.=20
H. C. <SPAN class=3DSpellE>Bassetti</SPAN></A> =
(Editor).</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">What=92s a bull/bear=20
market?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<o:p></o:=
p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In =93TA of Stock =
Trends,=94 the authors=20
state that a primary trend is the general direction of price movement =
over a=20
year or more.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>A bull =
market is a=20
primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in price.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>A bear market is a primary =
trend=20
containing lower highs and lower lows in price.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Within the primary trend are =
secondary=20
trends.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Secondary trends =
last from=20
3 weeks to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify as bear or =
bull=20
markets.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The secondary =
trends are=20
merely the corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a =
bear=20
markets.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>In addition to =
the primary=20
and secondary trends, there are minor trends that usually last less than =
6 days=20
and rarely as long as 3 weeks, but they are of little importance =
here.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The main thing that I would =
like to get=20
across is this:<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Using the =
definitions just described, you can=92t talk about bear and bull markets =
unless=20
you=92re talking about a time frame of about a =
year.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">What do we use for an =
=93M=94=20
Meter?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Now that the definitions =
are out of=20
the way, we can talk about how to get in and out of bull markets easily =
using=20
our =93M=94 meter.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>If =
you=92re having=20
<SPAN class=3DSpellE>CWs</SPAN> (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a =
bear market,=20
you might try <SPAN class=3DSpellE>CANSLIM=92ing</SPAN> during a rally =
within the=20
bear market.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>You can use =
our =93M=94=20
meter to detect rallies as well. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The =93M=94 meter is so simple =
that I feel=20
like a few of you are not going to believe me and will tell me to pack =
sand =96=20
but, oh well, here it goes.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>The =93M=94=20
meters are moving averages.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =20
</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">For a good explanation as =
to why=20
this works, visit <A=20
href=3D"http://www.401k-maximizer.com/">http://www.401k-maximizer.com/</A=
>. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">How do we use the =93M=94=20
Meter?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<o:=
p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The index you choose to =
graph will=20
depend on the kind of security you=92re investing in.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>For general growth stocks, the =
QQQ=20
ticker symbol (NASDAQ) is a good one to use.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>For especially small cap =
growth stocks,=20
you can choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell =
2000.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>To get a feel for whether =
you=92re in a=20
bull/bear market, plot the index against a 200-day moving average.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>To get a feel for whether =
you=92re in a=20
rally/correction, plot the index against a 50-day moving average.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The reasons we choose a =
200-day average=20
for bear/bull =93M=94 indicator are because it is: (1) a length of time =
that=20
approximates the number of trading days in one year =96 the minimum time =
frame for=20
a bull/bear market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by =
many=20
elephants.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The reasons we =
choose a=20
50-day average for the rally/correction =93M=94 indicator are fairly the =
same: (1)=20
it=92s a highly watched indicator, (2) it is a time frame that makes a =
good=20
compromise between getting you in and out of a rally without whipsawing =
you in=20
and out.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Defense of the =93M=94=20
Meter<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<o:p></o:p><=
/SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Try plotting a 3-year =
graph of QQQ=20
against a 200-day EMA moving average. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Imagine <SPAN =
class=3DGramE>yourself</SPAN>=20
getting in on that market when the prices crossed above the 200-day MA =
and=20
getting out of the market when the prices crossed below the 200-day MA. =
You=20
might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 times between April and September of =
2000=20
(allowing you to participate in the rallies of June and August).<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>But you would have stayed out =
of the=20
bear market since September.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Are we still in a bear=20
market?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<o:=
p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Truth is: nobody knows =
yet, because=20
enough time hasn=92t passed. That=92s the way it goes.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>In a reversal like this, you =
never know=20
whether <SPAN class=3DGramE>it=92s</SPAN> rally or the start of a new =
bull market=20
until enough time has passed (like the saying goes: Hindsight is =
20/20).<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>But whether we=92re truly in a =
bull market=20
or bear market is irrelevant to me.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>All I care about is our meter.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>And the meter says this.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =20
</SPAN>Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally crossed above the 50-day EMA, but =
it=92s=20
still a long way from reaching the 200-day EMA.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I might get into stocks slowly =
and=20
cautiously right now, but I=92m certainly not ready to jump in with both =
feet.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">--=20
Curt<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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