Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:50:41 -0500
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Hi Mike,

Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market like this--A
handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to the
pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals unless you
want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the cup, which
I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind.

There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high debt load
(though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in my sights
in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only turned EPS
positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky ground, I'd
rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive
in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are fundamentally
stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit back and
watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and
see how they're acting, CSTR included.

I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy that you
would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp dollar
bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand they're
appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based and not
to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM
card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation for
their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting fees
after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change can" and
dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd make my
ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that evening we
would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that they're
charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative. Personally, I'm
too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be using the
bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would consider
it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something about
"saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing more than
this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in the same
breath as CSTR----Starbucks.

Katherine


- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR


|
| I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten.  It is when stuff like
this
| happens that makes me question a trading "method".  I'm sure if CSTR stays
| down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using
| their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall.  Does
| anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them
to
| believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not
| strong enough?
|
| Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting.  Thank you all!
|
|
| Mike Niemotka , PE
| Sr. Principal Engineer
| Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| Route 120 & Wilson Road
| Round Lake, IL 60073
| Tel (847) 270-4075
| Fax (847) 270-4525
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
|
|
|
|                     "Edward W. Gjertsen
|                     II"                           To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
|                     <ed@macktracks.com>           cc:
|                     Sent by:                      Subject:     RE:
[CANSLIM] CSTR
|                     owner-canslim@lists.xm
|                     ission.com
|
|
|                     08/27/2002 10:09 AM
|                     Please respond to
|                     canslim
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dear Mike
|
| CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with
| buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar
| results, which unfortunately are on the downside.  You mentioned that
| you got into the office late.  Remember - there are people who do this
| for a living with millions at stake.  A slight smell of weakness and
| they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table -
| selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%.  We
| have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly -
| and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in
| other cases the stock kept declining.  Throw out your ego - sell - and
| if CSTR sets up again look at buying it.  I don't want to get too deep
| into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it
| back within 30 days.  Good luck
|
| Ed Gjertsen II
| ed@macktracks.com
|
| -----Original Message-----
| From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
| [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
| Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM
| To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
| Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR
|
| Does anyone know what is going on with this stock?  Got in late to the
| office today and it is down 18%!!!
|
| I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or
| wait
| it out to see if the day may turn a bit?
|
| Thanks
|
| Mike Niemotka , PE
| Sr. Principal Engineer
| Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| Route 120 & Wilson Road
| Round Lake, IL 60073
| Tel (847) 270-4075
| Fax (847) 270-4525
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
|
|
|
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|
|
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