Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR

From: Marc Deiter <dites@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 09:12:14 -0700 (PDT)
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Mike,

I'm in the same situation as you with CSTR and may be somewhat
responsible for the drop.  I found IBD/CANSLIM and this list last
August and have learned a tremendous amount over the last year while
not trading at all.  CSTR was my first stock purchase in over a year
- - the last two (prior to finding this list and CANSLIM) were Nortel
(twice on the way down) and Global Crossing.  I'm afraid I've brought
my bad karma to the list :)  

Live and learn,
Marc

- --- michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote:
> 
> Katherine,
> 
> Thanks for the analysis.  It does make me feel a little better
> knowing that
> no one else saw it coming.
> 
> And I hope you will drop the list an e-mail to let us know how the
> waiter
> at the pricey restaurant reacts when you pay for your dinner in
> coins!
> 
> Mike
> 
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> 
> 
>                                                                    
>                                                         
>                     "Katherine Malm"                               
>                                                         
>                     <kmalm@earthlink.net>         To:    
> canslim@lists.xmission.com                                        
>                     Sent by:                      cc:              
>                                                         
>                     owner-canslim@lists.xm        Subject:     Re:
> [CANSLIM] CSTR                                           
>                     ission.com                                     
>                                                         
>                                                                    
>                                                         
>                                                                    
>                                                         
>                     08/27/2002 10:50 AM                            
>                                                         
>                     Please respond to                              
>                                                         
>                     canslim                                        
>                                                         
>                                                                    
>                                                         
>                                                                    
>                                                         
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi Mike,
> 
> Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market
> like
> this--A
> handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to
> the
> pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals
> unless you
> want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the
> cup, which
> I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind.
> 
> There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high
> debt load
> (though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in
> my sights
> in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only
> turned EPS
> positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky
> ground, I'd
> rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive
> in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are
> fundamentally
> stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit
> back
> and
> watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a
> follow-through and
> see how they're acting, CSTR included.
> 
> I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy
> that
> you
> would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp
> dollar
> bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand
> they're
> appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based
> and not
> to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use
> our ATM
> card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater
> appreciation for
> their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting
> fees
> after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change
> can" and
> dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd
> make my
> ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that
> evening we
> would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that
> they're
> charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative.
> Personally, I'm
> too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be
> using
> the
> bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would
> consider
> it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something
> about
> "saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing
> more than
> this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in
> the same
> breath as CSTR----Starbucks.
> 
> Katherine
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
> 
> 
> |
> | I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten.  It is when stuff
> like
> this
> | happens that makes me question a trading "method".  I'm sure if
> CSTR
> stays
> | down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write
> up
> using
> | their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall.
>  Does
> | anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would
> lead them
> to
> | believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is
> still not
> | strong enough?
> |
> | Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting.  Thank you all!
> |
> |
> | Mike Niemotka , PE
> | Sr. Principal Engineer
> | Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> | Route 120 & Wilson Road
> | Round Lake, IL 60073
> | Tel (847) 270-4075
> | Fax (847) 270-4525
> | michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> |
> |
> |
> |                     "Edward W. Gjertsen
> |                     II"                           To:
> canslim@lists.xmission.com
> |                     <ed@macktracks.com>           cc:
> |                     Sent by:                      Subject:    
> RE:
> [CANSLIM] CSTR
> |                     owner-canslim@lists.xm
> |                     ission.com
> |
> |
> |                     08/27/2002 10:09 AM
> |                     Please respond to
> |                     canslim
> |
> |
> |
> |
> |
> |
> | Dear Mike
> |
> | CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we
> faced with
> | buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing
> similar
> | results, which unfortunately are on the downside.  You mentioned
> that
> | you got into the office late.  Remember - there are people who do
> this
> | for a living with millions at stake.  A slight smell of weakness
> and
> | they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the
> table -
> | selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over
> 20%. 
=== message truncated ===


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