Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR

From: "Norman" <theboyd@tisd.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2002 07:02:25 -0500
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I was afraid of that, more work on our part to learn what the analysts are
going to announce, before they announce it:-(
Thanks for the view point, Tom.

Here ya go Katherine, another entry for the group FAQ:  "s _ _ t happens"

Norm
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, August 28, 2002 6:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR


> the lesson to learn from CSTR is that s _ _ t happens, and sometimes you
> simply cannot see it coming, or avoid it. On the other hand, if the rumor
of
> a report alleging "saturation" is correct, then your own due diligence
might
> have drawn you to the same conclusion, and kept you out of the stock. As
> Katherine pointed out, SBUX has had to deal with this issue, so far
> successfully. Others have pointed out KKD as a saturation candidate,
hasn't
> stopped it going up either over the past year.
>
> On the other hand, both SBUX and KKD now have charts that most CANSLIMers
> would avoid, with SBUX forming a handle in the lower half of the cup, and
> KKD in a downtrend. Maybe saturation is finally a concern that the market
is
> starting to believe, or has finally become real. Compared to this, CSTR's
> chart looks pretty good. For me, their business simply never made sense,
> that's why I had no interest in it. I put my quarters in the piggy bank,
and
> roll them myself when its full. I use my pennies, nickels and dimes when I
> buy something in order to get more quarters back, or only get paper bills.
> So I never accumulate large amounts of coins, and have a limited amount of
> coins jingling in my pocket each day (and yes, I will stoop over and pick
up
> those pennies that others throw away, it may save me having to get more on
a
> future purchase).
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman" <theboyd@tisd.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, August 28, 2002 7:32 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
>
>
> I agree Tom, too much unknown about what their agenda is.  However, in the
> case of CSTR, the chart is too late to help a poor CAN SLIMer.  I have
been
> in and out of EASI in the past (pre-9/11) and found that a particular
> analyst kept killing rallies after short gains; no good reason other than
he
> thought it was "overvalued".  It almost seems that we need to know the
> analysts who are covering our holdings, know their history regarding those
> holdings, and read their reports, hopefully before everyone else does.  I
> dunno, seems like a catch 22.
>
> Norm
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, August 28, 2002 6:26 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
>
>
> > one of the problems I have with analysts is that they don't put all
their
> > cards on the table where we can see them. You don't know what their
> "hidden
> > agenda" is, or where their interests lie.  Certainly recent legal action
> has
> > shown us that they can tout stocks to the public, while trashing them
> within
> > their own organization. And we have also seen that they can continue to
> > recommend stocks like Enron all the way into bankruptcy.
> >
> > Yes, they very definitely can have an impact if they have a following,
or
> > work for a brokerage house with a sufficiently sized retail force.
Nothing
> > wrong in listening to an analyst (if you don't mind your mind and
thinking
> > process being potentially polluted and corrupted), but take what they
say
> > and apply simply common sense and logic to it. Ultimately, let the chart
> and
> > the fundamentals steer your decision making however, not what some
analyst
> > is saying. Far too often what they say today only lasts today, by
tomorrow
> > they may say something totally contradictory.
> >
> > The charts are fact, an analyst's report is an opinion.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Norman" <theboyd@tisd.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 28, 2002 7:16 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
> >
> >
> > Bill et al,
> >
> > RE the comments on a sell off of CSTR due to a "sell report".  How come
> > 'everyone else' is apparently listening to analysts while us CAN SLIMers
> are
> > supposed to ignore them as irrelevant?  This has always puzzled me.  Or,
> can
> > this "Off Wall Street" be considered one of the analysts to be ignored;
or
> > are they some other kind of M animal?  Sure seems like analysts have an
> > impact, time and again, even though WON says to disregard their advice.
> >
> > Norm
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 11:29 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
> >
> >
> > > Just to add - IBD mentioned tonight, A sell report from Off Wall
Street
> > > Consulting Group caused the selloff.
> > >
> > > Taken from another site: "Off Wall Street, based in Cambridge,
> > > Massachusetts, declined to confirm it had issued a report and said its
> > > research is provided only to clients who pay for the service."
> > >
> > > That explains the lack of news during the day.
> > >
> > > -Bill
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 7:16 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
> > >
> > >
> > > > I think the handle is fine, well into the upper half of the cup.
> Volume
> > > > declined ok, b/o on 8/15 on more than 3X ADV.
> > > >
> > > > Where I would fault it is on revenues, which over the past 4
quarters
> do
> > > not
> > > > show me the kind of consistent growth to justify either the growth
in
> > > > earnings, or the high PE, although if you believe the projected
> earnings
> > > (I
> > > > don't) then the projected PE is more moderate.
> > > >
> > > > I see this as a business that will best thrive when the economy
> falters
> > to
> > > > the point that everyone is taking their jars of pocket change, and
> > having
> > > it
> > > > counted, because they need a little "nest egg".
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 11:49 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Maybe that the handle formed part way up the right side of the cup
was
> a
> > > > warning
> > > > sign?  I'm assuming you would have bought a breakout at that level.
> > When
> > > > this was
> > > > originally mentioned here, I looked at it and thought it was such an
> odd
> > > > little niche
> > > > business that it probably had limited growth potential.  (doesn't
mean
> > it
> > > > could not
> > > > have moved on up a bit)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On 27 Aug 2002 at 10:22, michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall.
> > Does
> > > > > anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would
lead
> > them
> > > > to
> > > > > believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is
still
> > not
> > > > > strong enough?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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