Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Gasta, Jeffrey" <Jeff.Gasta@marriott.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2002 18:42:40 -0400
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I certainly agree that it sure seems like there are too many starbucks
already - there are more than 70 in the DC metro area alone! The Washington
Post did a feature story on them this past Sunday. Yes, new stores do
cannibalize existing ones for the first year. But after that, demand
increase so much that all stores are profitable. Also, starbucks considers
their stores to be their advertising medium. They spend almost no money on
advertising. Who knew? Link to the article is below. Thanks, jg
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56030-2002Aug24.html
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56030-2002Aug24.html>
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:32 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
market saturation, in this case (and Starbucks) would be where locations are
getting so numerous that the new facilities begin to cannibalize the
existing ones. If the existing ones are overwhelmed with demand beyond
capacity, that may be ok, but if not it's really bad.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Mike <mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com> Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 3:35 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Does anyone know what "market saturation" is?
I'm somewhat gratified by the several comments about the strength of CSTR's
chart, because my own algorithm had rated it top of about 50 CwH patterns
yesterday. It would have been better with less volatility and less volume in
the handle, but no stock's perfect.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of NANCY POLCARO
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 8:52 AM
To: canslim
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
cnbc said it was caused by market saturation.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: David Taggart
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:08 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
I have a bunch of coin rolls located on my dresser and just fill them up as
I go (except for the pennies which go in a bucket in my closet) Once a roll
is filled I then use it to buy gas. The gas station people never seem to
mind getting a $10 quarter roll or a $2 nickel roll. It works for me
because like you I will never haul my change to the store only to be charged
for it.
Happy Trading,
David Taggart
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:51 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR
Hi Mike,
Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market like this--A
handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to the
pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals unless you
want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the cup, which
I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind.
There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high debt load
(though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in my sights
in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only turned EPS
positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky ground, I'd
rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive
in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are fundamentally
stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit back and
watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and
see how they're acting, CSTR included.
I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy that you
would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp dollar
bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand they're
appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based and not
to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM
card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation for
their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting fees
after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change can" and
dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd make my
ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that evening we
would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that they're
charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative. Personally, I'm
too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be using the
bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would consider
it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something about
"saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing more than
this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in the same
breath as CSTR----Starbucks.
Katherine
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR
|
| I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like
this
| happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays
| down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using
| their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does
| anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them
to
| believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not
| strong enough?
|
| Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all!
|
|
| Mike Niemotka , PE
| Sr. Principal Engineer
| Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| Route 120 & Wilson Road
| Round Lake, IL 60073
| Tel (847) 270-4075
| Fax (847) 270-4525
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
|
|
|
| "Edward W. Gjertsen
| II" To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
| <ed@macktracks.com> cc:
| Sent by: Subject: RE:
[CANSLIM] CSTR
| owner-canslim@lists.xm
| ission.com
|
|
| 08/27/2002 10:09 AM
| Please respond to
| canslim
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dear Mike
|
| CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with
| buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar
| results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that
| you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this
| for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and
| they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table -
| selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We
| have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly -
| and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in
| other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and
| if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep
| into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it
| back within 30 days. Good luck
|
| Ed Gjertsen II
| ed@macktracks.com
|
| -----Original Message-----
| From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
| [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
| Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM
| To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
| Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR
|
| Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the
| office today and it is down 18%!!!
|
| I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or
| wait
| it out to see if the day may turn a bit?
|
| Thanks
|
| Mike Niemotka , PE
| Sr. Principal Engineer
| Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| Route 120 & Wilson Road
| Round Lake, IL 60073
| Tel (847) 270-4075
| Fax (847) 270-4525
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
|
|
|
| -
| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
|
|
| -
| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| -
| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none; FONT: 10pt =
verdana; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none"=20
bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D830203822-28082002><FONT face=3Dverdana>I certainly =
agree that it=20
sure seems like there are too many starbucks already - there are more =
than 70 in=20
the DC metro area alone! The Washington Post did a feature story =
on them=20
this past Sunday. Yes, new stores do cannibalize existing ones =
for the=20
first year. But after that, demand increase so much that all =
stores are=20
profitable. Also, starbucks considers their stores to be their =
advertising=20
medium. They spend almost no money on advertising. Who=20
knew? Link to the article is below. Thanks,=20
jg</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D830203822-28082002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D830203822-28082002><FONT face=3Dverdana><A=20
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56030-2002Aug24.h=
tml">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56030-2002Aug24.html=
</A></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Tom Worley=20
[mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 27, =
2002 10:32=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
CSTR<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>market saturation, in this case (and =
Starbucks)=20
would be where locations are getting so numerous that the new =
facilities begin=20
to cannibalize the existing ones. If the existing ones are =
overwhelmed with=20
demand beyond capacity, that may be ok, but if not it's really bad.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A =
title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com =
href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com">Mike=20
Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A=
> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 27, 2002 3:35 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D120400119-27082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080>Does=20
anyone know what "market saturation" is?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D120400119-27082002><FONT face=3DTahoma=20
color=3D#000080></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D120400119-27082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080>I'm=20
somewhat gratified by the several comments about the strength of =
CSTR's chart,=20
because my own algorithm had rated it top of about 50 CwH patterns =
yesterday.=20
It would have been better with less volatility and less volume in the =
handle,=20
but no stock's perfect.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D120400119-27082002><FONT face=3DTahoma=20
color=3D#000080></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D120400119-27082002></SPAN><FONT face=3DTahoma=20
color=3D#000080>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080>Mike Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080>Proactive Technologies, =
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>NANCY=20
POLCARO<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 27, 2002 8:52 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>cnbc said it was caused by market saturation. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial">----- Original Message =
- -----</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
David Taggart</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 27, =
2002 9:08=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
CSTR</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>I have a bunch of coin rolls located on my =
dresser and=20
just fill them up as<BR>I go (except for the pennies which go in =
a bucket=20
in my closet) Once a roll<BR>is filled I then use it to buy =
gas. The=20
gas station people never seem to<BR>mind getting a $10 quarter =
roll or a=20
$2 nickel roll. It works for me<BR>because like you I will =
never=20
haul my change to the store only to be charged<BR>for =
it.<BR><BR>Happy=20
Trading,<BR>David Taggart<BR><BR>-----Original =
Message-----<BR>From:=20
=
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission=
.com]On=20
Behalf Of Katherine Malm<BR>Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:51 =
AM<BR>To:=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] =
CSTR<BR><BR><BR>Hi=20
Mike,<BR><BR>Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets =
in a=20
market like this--A<BR>handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on =
volume, an=20
orderly pullback to the<BR>pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed =
to fault=20
the technicals unless you<BR>want to argue the somewhat light =
volume on=20
the right side of the cup, which<BR>I won't, because it's =
insignificant in=20
my mind.<BR><BR>There are a couple of things that kept me away =
from=20
CSTR---high debt load<BR>(though they've been restructuring debt =
recently,=20
so they stay in my sights<BR>in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% =
(primarily=20
because they only turned EPS<BR>positive in the last 4 quarters). =
Given=20
the market is on shaky ground, I'd<BR>rather sit back and watch =
the=20
behavior of the stock than to dive<BR>in....preferring to stalk =
the trade=20
on other stocks which are fundamentally<BR>stronger, but not yet =
finished=20
with their bases. I also like to sit back and<BR>watch most of =
the early=20
stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and<BR>see how =
they're=20
acting, CSTR included.<BR><BR>I've often scratched my head at the =
business=20
model.....seemed crazy that you<BR>would *pay* to count your =
change and be=20
happy to receive some crisp dollar<BR>bills and a few store =
coupons for=20
the "privilege." But I understand they're<BR>appealing to a part =
of the=20
population that is primarily cash-based and not<BR>to those of us =
who've=20
forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM<BR>card for=20
everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation=20
for<BR>their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin =
counting=20
fees<BR>after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a =
"change=20
can" and<BR>dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's =
about=20
$200....I'd make my<BR>ritual trek to the bank to have them count =
it out,=20
then that evening we<BR>would go out for a pricey dinner, =
something we=20
rarely do. Now that they're<BR>charging, however, the CSTR kiosks =
become=20
an alternative. Personally, I'm<BR>too cheap to pay *anybody* to =
count my=20
money for me, so I won't be using the<BR>bank *or* CSTR...but =
I'll bet you=20
there are many folks who would consider<BR>it. The blurb I saw on =
the=20
OffWallStreet report mentioned something about<BR>"saturation." =
Though I=20
haven't seen the report and know nothing more than<BR>this, I =
have only=20
one thought when I hear something like that in the same<BR>breath =
as=20
CSTR----Starbucks.<BR><BR>Katherine<BR><BR><BR>----- Original =
Message=20
-----<BR>From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com><BR>To:=20
<canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>Sent: Tuesday, August 27, =
2002 10:22=20
AM<BR>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR<BR><BR><BR>|<BR>| I appreciate =
all the=20
advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff =
like<BR>this<BR>|=20
happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure =
if CSTR=20
stays<BR>| down, it will only be a matter of time before I see =
and IBD=20
write up using<BR>| their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it =
was=20
destined to fall. Does<BR>| anyone else see anything in the =
price=20
volume action that would lead them<BR>to<BR>| believe that this =
was going=20
to happen, or is it the M that is still not<BR>| strong =
enough?<BR>|<BR>|=20
Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you=20
all!<BR>|<BR>|<BR>| Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>| Sr. Principal =
Engineer<BR>|=20
Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>| Route 120 & Wilson =
Road<BR>| Round=20
Lake, IL 60073<BR>| Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>| Fax (847) =
270-4525<BR>|=20
=
michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>| &=
nbsp; &=
nbsp; =20
"Edward W.=20
=
Gjertsen<BR>|  =
; =20
=
II" &nb=
sp; &nb=
sp; =20
=
To:<BR>canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>| &nbs=
p; &nbs=
p; =20
=
<ed@macktracks.com>  =
; =20
=
cc:<BR>| &nbs=
p; =20
Sent=20
=
by: &nb=
sp; =20
Subject: RE:<BR>[CANSLIM]=20
=
CSTR<BR>| &nb=
sp; =20
=
owner-canslim@lists.xm<BR>| &nb=
sp; &nb=
sp;=20
=
ission.com<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|  =
;  =
;=20
08/27/2002 10:09=20
=
AM<BR>|  =
; =20
Please respond=20
=
to<BR>|  =
; =20
canslim<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>| Dear Mike<BR>|<BR>| =
CSTR was a=20
favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced =
with<BR>| buying=20
CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing =
similar<BR>|=20
results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You =
mentioned=20
that<BR>| you got into the office late. Remember - there =
are people=20
who do this<BR>| for a living with millions at stake. A =
slight smell=20
of weakness and<BR>| they may sell some of their position to take =
some=20
risk off the table -<BR>| selling begets selling and before you =
know it=20
CSTR is down over 20%. We<BR>| have been in this situation =
several=20
times before - and sold quickly -<BR>| and yes much to our =
chagrin - some=20
stocks came roaring back - but in<BR>| other cases the stock kept =
declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and<BR>| if CSTR =
sets up=20
again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep<BR>| =
into wash=20
sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy =
it<BR>| back=20
within 30 days. Good luck<BR>|<BR>| Ed Gjertsen II<BR>|=20
ed@macktracks.com<BR>|<BR>| -----Original Message-----<BR>| From: =
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>|=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of<BR>|=20
michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR>| Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 =
9:25=20
AM<BR>| To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>| Subject: [CANSLIM]=20
CSTR<BR>|<BR>| Does anyone know what is going on with this =
stock? =20
Got in late to the<BR>| office today and it is down =
18%!!!<BR>|<BR>| I=20
know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, =
or<BR>|=20
wait<BR>| it out to see if the day may turn a bit?<BR>|<BR>|=20
Thanks<BR>|<BR>| Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>| Sr. Principal =
Engineer<BR>|=20
Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>| Route 120 & Wilson =
Road<BR>| Round=20
Lake, IL 60073<BR>| Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>| Fax (847) =
270-4525<BR>|=20
michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>| -<BR>| -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>| -In =
the email=20
body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR>|<BR>|<BR>| -<BR>| -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>| -In =
the email=20
body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your =
email.<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|<BR>|=20
-<BR>| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>| -In=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>| -"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your =
email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the =
email=20
body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do not=20
use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To =
subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20
"majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe =
canslim"=20
or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
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