RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts

From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 2002 11:01:01 -1000

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Norm and kelly,

I don't want to be picky, but the S&P 500 sank to below 905 at about 10:00.
It then rose and fell again with a turn later in the day at 911. So the turn
was actually lower than Ernie predicted.

That said, I do agree that Ernie's forecasts since I've been following them
have certainly been on the money and within what I would consider
"experimental error".

However, I have the same kind of feeling about Elliot Wave Theory as
Einstein had about the uncertainty principal - without a rational
explanation for why it works (if it does reliably), its hard to believe in
it.

I can understand fibonacci numbers recurring frequently in nature because
they could be somehow encoded in DNA, but I have a hard time seeing how they
could apply to the stock market. But then again, I haven't put any time into
trying to understand the causal connection and my comments are based largely
on ignorance. If any member of the group can explain a possible causal
relationship, I would find that helpful.

Also, why is this off topic? Understanding M is fundamental to CANSLIM
because 75% of stocks go with the flow.

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short
Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 10:36 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts


Norm,

I was commenting at lunch at perfectly he called it today and yesterday.
Almost to the hour. I wonder if he tracks the success of his predictions.

Kelly

- -----Original Message-----
From: Norman [mailto:theboyd@tisd.net]
Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 3:27 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts


All,

I know it's a little (OK a lot<G>) off topic, but is interesting.  For those
of you who subscribed to Ernie's S&P 500 forecasts, did you notice he has
apparently called this one perfectly.  He predicted a turn window or
910-913.  Today it turned at 911.06.  For now, his crystal ball is working.
For those of you who are not subscribed I copied last nights forecast below.

Norm


Once again today could be the bottom, as we came within a whisker of the
910-913 target range, and both of my short term cycle indicators are
suggesting that a turn is imminent. While the next target level of 876-884
is still a possibility, at this point I would have to say that it is not
very likely that we will go that low.



The 910-913 range has emerged as the high probability target for the
termination of this short term down move. The most likely scenario for
tomorrow would be a move slightly lower into the target range or just below
before the market terminates the move, and begins to go higher. The second
most likely scenario is that the market will open higher and continue to
move higher from there. And the third most likely scenario would be a
continuation of the down move possibly as low as 900, with an intra-day
reversal featuring a closing price above at least 911. Each of these
scenarios involves the 910-913 target range.



Despite the high probability that we are about to make a turn and not likely
to go much lower, until we see the turn confirmation signal this market
could still reach the lower target range



E



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