Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 2002 23:09:25 -0400
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Mike, While I have never really studied, much less tried, any of the number crunching approaches like Ernie is using (and yes, I also subscribed, if for no other reason than to learn a little), the only causal connection I ever came up with was that ultimately, people are behind the trading activity of the marketplace. Even today, with more basket trading and automated trading than ever before, it's still people doing the chart interpretations. I do believe a lot of the market gyrations are little more than "herd instinct", and that certainly can go back to DNA coding, or cultural evolution, or how we were raised, or whatever else makes us both human and investors. I have met many people over the years that have never invested, never intend to, perfectly content to keep their money in a CD or, at the most, a money market. I cannot understand their attitude any more than they can understand me wanting to be fully invested in good markets and bad. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 5:01 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts Norm and kelly, I don't want to be picky, but the S&P 500 sank to below 905 at about 10:00. It then rose and fell again with a turn later in the day at 911. So the turn was actually lower than Ernie predicted. That said, I do agree that Ernie's forecasts since I've been following them have certainly been on the money and within what I would consider "experimental error". However, I have the same kind of feeling about Elliot Wave Theory as Einstein had about the uncertainty principal - without a rational explanation for why it works (if it does reliably), its hard to believe in it. I can understand fibonacci numbers recurring frequently in nature because they could be somehow encoded in DNA, but I have a hard time seeing how they could apply to the stock market. But then again, I haven't put any time into trying to understand the causal connection and my comments are based largely on ignorance. If any member of the group can explain a possible causal relationship, I would find that helpful. Also, why is this off topic? Understanding M is fundamental to CANSLIM because 75% of stocks go with the flow. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 10:36 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts Norm, I was commenting at lunch at perfectly he called it today and yesterday. Almost to the hour. I wonder if he tracks the success of his predictions. Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Norman [mailto:theboyd@tisd.net] Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 3:27 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts All, I know it's a little (OK a lot<G>) off topic, but is interesting. For those of you who subscribed to Ernie's S&P 500 forecasts, did you notice he has apparently called this one perfectly. He predicted a turn window or 910-913. Today it turned at 911.06. For now, his crystal ball is working. For those of you who are not subscribed I copied last nights forecast below. Norm Once again today could be the bottom, as we came within a whisker of the 910-913 target range, and both of my short term cycle indicators are suggesting that a turn is imminent. While the next target level of 876-884 is still a possibility, at this point I would have to say that it is not very likely that we will go that low. The 910-913 range has emerged as the high probability target for the termination of this short term down move. The most likely scenario for tomorrow would be a move slightly lower into the target range or just below before the market terminates the move, and begins to go higher. The second most likely scenario is that the market will open higher and continue to move higher from there. And the third most likely scenario would be a continuation of the down move possibly as low as 900, with an intra-day reversal featuring a closing price above at least 911. Each of these scenarios involves the 910-913 target range. Despite the high probability that we are about to make a turn and not likely to go much lower, until we see the turn confirmation signal this market could still reach the lower target range E - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ____________________________________________________________________________ For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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