Re: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts

From: "Norman" <theboyd@tisd.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
Date: Fri, 30 Aug 2002 08:30:17 -0500
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All,

We DON'T really want to get into a rigorous examination of these phenomena,
on a case by case basis, and whither or not there is any cause & effect
relationship that can be assigned to them.  Not here!

I think this is the reason there was at one time a TA group formed from this
group.  Maybe the folks in the HGSI forum would accommodate this discussion
as they seem to delve into TA a bit more than this group.

Norm
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "DAVID KELLER, BLOOMBERG/ 499 PARK" <DKELLER2@bloomberg.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, August 30, 2002 7:08 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts


> even more examples of Fibonacci: bottom of a pine cone (each direction is
a
> Fibonacci number), architecture (Parthenon's columns use Fibonacci
proportions),
>  or my personal favorite: music (Beethoven's 5th, Dvorak, etc)...
>
> Regarding why it works in the financial markets, check out the S&P from
> 5/01-12/01.  61.8% almost to the dollar.  Think anyone on the street was
> watching that?...
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mike Gibbons  <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> At:  8/29 18:06
>
> > Hi Norm,
> >
> > My information came from quotetracker as follows:
> >
> >
> >
> > As for my hypothesis about DNA and fibonacci numbers: DNA transmits the
code
> by
> > which every organsim develops. So the "shape" of a
> > plant for example is determined by its DNA. I recall (although its been
a long
> > time ) that fibonacci numbers are found, for example,
> > in the number of leaves on a fern frond. In other words, that fibonacci
> pattern
> > must have been encoded in the DNA in some way.
> > Presumanbly, also, ferns with that DNA pattern were "fitter" for
survival than
> > ferns that didn't have fibonacci numbers encoded in
> > their DNA. Now we are definitely off topic, but I enjoy a little
intellectual
> > diversion sometimes.
> >
> > Aloha,
> >
> > Mike Gibbons
> > Proactive Technologies, LLC
> > http://www.proactech.com
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Norman
> > Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 11:14 AM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
> >
> >
> > Hi Maui Mike,
> >
> > OK, on topic and out of the shadows<G>  The investors.com chart shows a
low
> > of 911.06.  I know that sometimes there are trades that confound the
> > charting sites, so where can I get the same info you have?
> >
> > As for encoding Fib lines in DNA; that's a little far fetched even for
this
> > Trekker to consider<G>  My ecology understanding dictates that genes
survive
> > by increasing the reproductive success of the species.  Now I can think
> > "outside of the box" as good as the next scientist, but this one doesn't
> > seem to be in the same room with the box<g>  Looks like an observation
has
> > been made, now you have postulated a theory, who's gonna test it<G>
> >
> > Elliot wave theory is 'nother story and one that I don't have enuf
knowledge
> > to address at this time.
> >
> > There, now *that's* OT!
> >
> > Norm
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 4:01 PM
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
> >
> >
> > > Norm and kelly,
> > >
> > > I don't want to be picky, but the S&P 500 sank to below 905 at about
> > 10:00.
> > > It then rose and fell again with a turn later in the day at 911. So
the
> > turn
> > > was actually lower than Ernie predicted.
> > >
> > > That said, I do agree that Ernie's forecasts since I've been following
> > them
> > > have certainly been on the money and within what I would consider
> > > "experimental error".
> > >
> > > However, I have the same kind of feeling about Elliot Wave Theory as
> > > Einstein had about the uncertainty principal - without a rational
> > > explanation for why it works (if it does reliably), its hard to
believe in
> > > it.
> > >
> > > I can understand fibonacci numbers recurring frequently in nature
because
> > > they could be somehow encoded in DNA, but I have a hard time seeing
how
> > they
> > > could apply to the stock market. But then again, I haven't put any
time
> > into
> > > trying to understand the causal connection and my comments are based
> > largely
> > > on ignorance. If any member of the group can explain a possible causal
> > > relationship, I would find that helpful.
> > >
> > > Also, why is this off topic? Understanding M is fundamental to CANSLIM
> > > because 75% of stocks go with the flow.
> > >
> > > Aloha,
> > >
> > > Mike Gibbons
> > > Proactive Technologies, LLC
> > > http://www.proactech.com
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short
> > > Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 10:36 AM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
> > >
> > >
> > > Norm,
> > >
> > > I was commenting at lunch at perfectly he called it today and
yesterday.
> > > Almost to the hour. I wonder if he tracks the success of his
predictions.
> > >
> > > Kelly
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Norman [mailto:theboyd@tisd.net]
> > > Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 3:27 PM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Ernie's Forecasts
> > >
> > >
> > > All,
> > >
> > > I know it's a little (OK a lot<G>) off topic, but is interesting.  For
> > those
> > > of you who subscribed to Ernie's S&P 500 forecasts, did you notice he
has
> > > apparently called this one perfectly.  He predicted a turn window or
> > > 910-913.  Today it turned at 911.06.  For now, his crystal ball is
> > working.
> > > For those of you who are not subscribed I copied last nights forecast
> > below.
> > >
> > > Norm
> > >
> > >
> > > Once again today could be the bottom, as we came within a whisker of
the
> > > 910-913 target range, and both of my short term cycle indicators are
> > > suggesting that a turn is imminent. While the next target level of
876-884
> > > is still a possibility, at this point I would have to say that it is
not
> > > very likely that we will go that low.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The 910-913 range has emerged as the high probability target for the
> > > termination of this short term down move. The most likely scenario for
> > > tomorrow would be a move slightly lower into the target range or just
> > below
> > > before the market terminates the move, and begins to go higher. The
second
> > > most likely scenario is that the market will open higher and continue
to
> > > move higher from there. And the third most likely scenario would be a
> > > continuation of the down move possibly as low as 900, with an
intra-day
> > > reversal featuring a closing price above at least 911. Each of these
> > > scenarios involves the 910-913 target range.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Despite the high probability that we are about to make a turn and not
> > likely
> > > to go much lower, until we see the turn confirmation signal this
market
> > > could still reach the lower target range
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > E
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> >
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>
>


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