RE: [CANSLIM] M

From: "Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Wed, 4 Sep 2002 15:25:29 -0500
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There are some Fibonacci support numbers that come in around 874 - also,
we are in the throws of a Fibonacci time cycle, possibly indicating a
temporary bottom here. 

Ed Gjertsen II
ed@macktracks.com

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Mike Gibbons
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 3:17 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M

Continuing the thread from last week about Ernie Hills M predictions,
its
very interesting to me that yesterday he said in his newsletter "876 is
literally the line in the sand. My work does not show any support levels
of
significant strength below 876."

Guess what, the S&P hit a low of 875.9 at about 12:28 EST and bounced
back
to 893.3.

Now I wonder if this is a case of the tail wagging the dog? By which I
mean
are the big traders using the same models as Ernie and jumped in at
875.9
betting that the market had hit bottom? In other words, are the models
creating self-fulfilling predictions? Maybe those who work in the
industry
have a view.

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 7:25 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M


Katherine,

Thank you as always for the information. I would not have picked up on
the
"wedging action" simply because it was not on my radar- but it has since
been placed in the notes to look for. Also, the comment regarding
bottoming
action below the 200dma comment was interesting- I don't remember this
rule
from HTMMIS. Is this something WON teaches or something you have
developed
an eye for based on years of experience?

Also- thanks for the charts!

Kelly

- -----Original Message-----
From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 12:14 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M


Hi Mike,

You don't know you've reached the "tip" of the wedge until the price
falls
and "triggers" the move down. This really isn't CANSLIM, so I don't want
to
get off topic...best for me to point you to TradingMarkets.com where you
can
read all about shorting and covering, which is a short term trading
tactic.
Dave Landry is a very good source and has numerous trading lessons on
the
subject. (If you haven't already done so, you can take advantage of
their 3
month free trial which was posted here last week. That'll give you
access to
all their lessons and archives.) [I've no affiliation with
TradingMarkets,
just a satisfied customer and member since early 2000]

Katherine

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 11:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M


|
| Thanks for the great info. Now the $20,000 question, how do you
identify
| the tip of the wedge (which I assume is the change point from area 2
to
| area 3) so you can maximize your gain?
|
| And how do you know when to cover?
|
| See how I only ask the "easy questions?
|
|
|
| Mike Niemotka , PE
| Sr. Principal Engineer
| Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| Route 120 & Wilson Road
| Round Lake, IL 60073
| Tel (847) 270-4075
| Fax (847) 270-4525
| michael_niemotka@baxter.com
|
|
|
|                     "Katherine Malm"
|                     <kmalm@earthlink.net>         To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
|                     Sent by:                      cc:
|                     owner-canslim@lists.xm        Subject:     Re:
[CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M
|                     ission.com
|
|
|                     09/04/2002 11:23 AM
|                     Please respond to
|                     canslim
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hi Mike,
|
| Yes...that's it. "Wedging" is a pattern of increasing prices on
decreasing
| volume. MIK isn't a textbook case of wedging, as the volume isn't
clearly
| decreasing, but the volume was fairly light and then under heavy
| distribution in the last couple of days in that area I identified, so
I
| considered it a "quasi-wedge." This wedging action is particularly
| troublesome in the right side of the cup and/or in a handle because it
| shows
| lack of conviction as the price is rising.
|
| I've uploaded a chart of another stock that gives a better view of
some
| wedging action and the subsequent price action. I can see I've cut off
part
| of my comments on the chart, but that last bit should read "Notice how
in
| area 3 the price tanks and retraces the move up." BTW, this is exactly
the
| sort of setup one looks for in a good short candidate (shorting as the
| price
| fails at the tip of the wedge)!
|
| http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/Wedging090402.jpg
|
| Katherine
|
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
| To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
| Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 10:27 AM
| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M
|
|
| |
| | Katherine,
| |
| | Can you define the "wedging" action you note?  Does it mean price
| increase
| | with a corresponding volume decrease over a number of days?
| |
| | Thanks
| |
| |
| | Mike Niemotka , PE
| | Sr. Principal Engineer
| | Baxter Healthcare Corporation
| | Route 120 & Wilson Road
| | Round Lake, IL 60073
| | Tel (847) 270-4075
| | Fax (847) 270-4525
| | michael_niemotka@baxter.com
| |
| |
| |
| |                     "Katherine Malm"
| |                     <kmalm@earthlink.net>         To:
| canslim@lists.xmission.com
| |                     Sent by:                      cc:
|
| |                     owner-canslim@lists.xm        Subject:     Re:
| [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M
| |                     ission.com
| |
| |
| |                     09/04/2002 09:40 AM
| |                     Please respond to
| |                     canslim
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Hi Kelly,
| |
| | I've marked a chart with my interpretation of MIK's chart. See it
at:
| |
| | http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/MIK090402.jpg
| |
| | Katherine
| |  ----- Original Message -----
| |  From: Kelly Short
| |  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
| |  Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 9:12 AM
| |  Subject: [CANSLIM] MIK BO? Academic discussion considering M
| |
| |  Has MIK created a CwH formation (6/10 - 8/29) hitting its pivot
point
on
| |  8/29 and now retreating to make a handle? EPS and Revenue growth
have
| been
| |  strong for the past three qtrs (all though last qtr's EPS was down
by
| |  $0.01). Volume looks suspiciously high though both in the bottom of
the
| |  cup and now in the handle. Since M has heartburn right now I
wouldn't
| |  imagine trading in it (given my level of expertise). Thoughts?
| |
| |  Kelly
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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