Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to the memory of those lost in the 9/11 attacks
Date: Sun, 8 Sep 2002 07:22:17 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00BB_01C25708.7662B350 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00BC_01C25708.7662B350" - ------=_NextPart_001_00BC_01C25708.7662B350 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS ISM (Institute for Supply Management, formerly NAPM) reported that its = index slipped to 50.5, unchanged from July, and well under expectations = of 51.8. While this is still technically growth (7th straight month over = 50, indicating expansion), it is still weak. And the New Orders Index = component came in at 49.7%, down from 50.4%, while the employment index = rose to 45.8% from 45.0% (indicating jobs are being lost, but at a = slower rate, contradictory to Friday's Employment report from Commerce, = who can we trust, business, or government??). Construction spending was essentially unchanged in July after two = straight months of declines (note that this is July data, what will = August show in a month), primarily helped by data on single family homes = (HOV lifted the whole sector with its astonishing earnings report this = past week). But without the $1.7 billion boost in govt spending on = construction, this would have made a third month of declines. Commerce Dept reported that factory orders in July rose 4.7%, as = expected. Note that this is stale data, and contrasts with the weak = report for August from ISM. Inventories in July fell 0.1%, for the 18th = month in a row. Worth noting that the new orders for durable goods, = previously reported at up 8.7%, was revised up further to 9.2%. Finally, to close out the weak week, ISM reports that service sector = activity, which represents well over a third of the US economy, fell to = 50.9 in August from 53.1, well under expectations of growth to 54.0. = Worth noting - the service sector represents 82% of all jobs in the USA, = and this is the third month in a row where the rate of growth slowed = (anything over 50 is expansion, or growth).=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT This was a confusing week on this most critical factor of the current = economy, and one I suspect the Feds have been focusing on far more than = usual. It started the week off with a report that current layoffs in = August increased 46% (over 37,000) over those in July, a disturbing = trend for an economy waiting for corporate spending to finally kick in. = On Thursday, we see both WalMart and Target reporting slowing sales and = below expectations (Target actually had declining same store sales), not = a good sign for the service sector which has been gaining jobs from = manufacturing. And we get the weekly new unemployment claims, down = slightly from the prior week but still over 400,000 and well above = expectations. Even the 4 week moving average of new claims hit 400K. = And Q2 Productivity was revised up to 1.5% from 1.1% as business still = continues to squeeze more out of its employees (fear of losing their = job, maybe?). Then Friday, we get the Commerce Dept report on employment = for August, and it shows a surprising drop of 0.2% to 5.7% unemployment, = with 39K jobs added (expected was an unchanged rate, and 30K jobs = added). July's jobs added was revised sharply up to 67K jobs, so it = looks like the increase in layoff announcements was covered at least. = But with the estimate of lost jobs in 2001 ranging from 1.5 million to = 1.9 million, and using Commerce's latest two months total job growth of = 106K, it will only take another 28 months to regain the level of = employment at the start of 2001, not counting what has been lost in = 2002. Personally, I find the latest monthly Employment report from = Commerce (despite it helping boost the market on Friday) as confusing = and illogical. It includes details like 68K job drop in factory = payrolls, 55K drop in retail payrolls, 41K new jobs added from = government (some for airport security), an increase in the overall labor = force of 226K, a huge increase of 429K in the number of people described = as "employed" (where did that come from if only 39K jobs were created, = and payrolls were falling??). Because the labor force data comes from a = govt survey of households, and the payrolls data from a survey of = businesses, can we trust the data? More importantly, will the FOMC trust = the data at their Sept 24 meeting? Are people working, and continuing to = claim unemployment as well? With an election coming, and after the = scandals of Enron and Worldcom, and the disclosures of unethical conduct = by wirehouse analysts, who can we trust anymore, government? business? = anyone?=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- FOMC The Feds meet again on 9/24, and until Friday's report the thinking was = nearly 50:50 that they would lower rates at that meeting. There are a = lot of important economic reports due out in the next two weeks, and = could even be some important corporate preannouncements of Q3 earnings. = Based on the past two months of economic reports in particular, and = despite Friday's employment report, I think there is more than a 50% = chance of a rate cut, at least 25 basis points (and I don't rule out 50 = BP) at this meeting. The Feds are very "forward" looking, usually 9 = months or more. And the data of the past two months, and the slippage in = forecasts of future recovery both in the economy, employment, and = corporate earnings, has to be falling well short of their models and = expectations. We are very close to Q3's GDP slipping back into a = negative figure (and future revision downward of Q2's weak 1.1%), and I = see little evidence at this time that the Feds have any choice, despite = the already record low rates. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, = as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this = year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as = Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend (in 20 seconds or = less each) is once again on the decline. APOL - channeling BRKL - c&h ERES - LLUR turned into a double bottom, handle forming FBP - B4 FNFG - B3 FVB - high handle GGC - triple bottom, volume needs to decline in the handle HBHC - LLUR IBCP - poor c&h IBKC - B5 NYCB - high handle OSIS - small c&h below the high, EPS only 73 PORT - B6 SSNC - long consolidation, in my VR Fund TRBS - B5 TTWO - b/o failed on over 4X ADV WCNX - possible c&h WM - B4 YDNT - possible c&h Happy Hunting, may everyone remain safe and secure this week Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00BC_01C25708.7662B350 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ISM (Institute for Supply Management, formerly = NAPM)=20 reported that its index slipped to 50.5, unchanged from July, and well = under=20 expectations of 51.8. While this is still technically growth (7th = straight month=20 over 50, indicating expansion), it is still weak. And the New Orders = Index=20 component came in at 49.7%, down from 50.4%, while the employment index = rose to=20 45.8% from 45.0% (indicating jobs are being lost, but at a slower rate,=20 contradictory to Friday's Employment report from Commerce, who can we = trust,=20 business, or government??).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Construction spending was essentially=20 unchanged in July after two straight months of declines (note that = this is=20 July data, what will August show in a month), primarily helped by data = on single=20 family homes (HOV lifted the whole sector with its astonishing earnings = report=20 this past week). But without the $1.7 billion boost in govt spending on=20 construction, this would have made a third month of = declines.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Commerce Dept reported that factory orders in = July rose=20 4.7%, as expected. Note that this is stale data, and contrasts with the = weak=20 report for August from ISM. Inventories in July fell 0.1%, for the 18th = month in=20 a row. Worth noting that the new orders for durable goods, previously = reported=20 at up 8.7%, was revised up further to 9.2%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Finally, to close out the weak week, ISM reports = that=20 service sector activity, which represents well over a third of the US = economy,=20 fell to 50.9 in August from 53.1, well under expectations of growth to = 54.0.=20 Worth noting - the service sector represents 82% of all jobs in the USA, = and=20 this is the third month in a row where the rate of growth slowed = (anything over=20 50 is expansion, or growth).=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>EMPLOYMENT / = UNEMPLOYMENT</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This was a confusing week on this most critical = factor of=20 the current economy, and one I suspect the Feds have been focusing on = far more=20 than usual. It started the week off with a report that current layoffs = in August=20 increased 46% (over 37,000) over those in July, a disturbing trend for = an=20 economy waiting for corporate spending to finally kick in. On Thursday, = we see=20 both WalMart and Target reporting slowing sales and below expectations = (Target=20 actually had declining same store sales), not a good sign for the = service sector=20 which has been gaining jobs from manufacturing. And we get the weekly = new=20 unemployment claims, down slightly from the prior week but still over = 400,000=20 and well above expectations. Even the 4 week moving average of new = claims hit=20 400K. And Q2 Productivity was revised up to 1.5% from 1.1% as = business=20 still continues to squeeze more out of its employees (fear of losing = their job,=20 maybe?). Then Friday, we get the Commerce Dept report on employment for = August,=20 and it shows a surprising drop of 0.2% to 5.7% unemployment, with 39K = jobs added=20 (expected was an unchanged rate, and 30K jobs added). July's jobs added = was=20 revised sharply up to 67K jobs, so it looks like the increase in layoff=20 announcements was covered at least. But with the estimate of lost jobs = in=20 2001 ranging from 1.5 million to 1.9 million, and = using Commerce's=20 latest two months total job growth of 106K, it will only take another 28 = months=20 to regain the level of employment at the start of 2001, not counting = what has=20 been lost in 2002. Personally, I find the latest monthly = Employment report=20 from Commerce (despite it helping boost the market on Friday) as = confusing and=20 illogical. It includes details like 68K job drop in factory payrolls, = 55K drop=20 in retail payrolls, 41K new jobs added from government (some for airport = security), an increase in the overall labor force of 226K, a huge = increase of=20 429K in the number of people described as "employed" (where did that = come from=20 if only 39K jobs were created, and payrolls were falling??). = Because the=20 labor force data comes from a govt survey of households, and the = payrolls=20 data from a survey of businesses, can we trust the data? More = importantly,=20 will the FOMC trust the data at their Sept 24 meeting? Are people = working, and=20 continuing to claim unemployment as well? With an election coming, and = after the=20 scandals of Enron and Worldcom, and the disclosures of unethical conduct = by=20 wirehouse analysts, who can we trust anymore, government? business? = anyone?=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>FOMC</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Feds meet again on 9/24, and until Friday's = report the=20 thinking was nearly 50:50 that they would lower rates at that meeting. = There are=20 a lot of important economic reports due out in the next two weeks, and = could=20 even be some important corporate preannouncements of Q3 earnings. Based = on the=20 past two months of economic reports in particular, and despite Friday's=20 employment report, I think there is more than a 50% chance of a rate = cut, at=20 least 25 basis points (and I don't rule out 50 BP) at this meeting. The = Feds are=20 very "forward" looking, usually 9 months or more. And the data of the = past two=20 months, and the slippage in forecasts of future recovery both in the = economy,=20 employment, and corporate earnings, has to be falling well short of = their models=20 and expectations. We are very close to Q3's GDP slipping back into a = negative=20 figure (and future revision downward of Q2's weak 1.1%), and I see = little=20 evidence at this time that the Feds have any choice, despite the already = record=20 low rates.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's "M"=20 and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I no longer will actively = consider earnings=20 forecast for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. = I do no=20 other due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any = CANSLIM=20 patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat = bases=20 (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower=20 Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend (in=20 20 seconds or less each) is once again on the decline.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>APOL - channeling</DIV> <DIV>BRKL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>ERES - LLUR turned into a double bottom, handle forming</DIV> <DIV>FBP - B4</DIV> <DIV>FNFG - B3</DIV> <DIV>FVB - high handle</DIV> <DIV>GGC - triple bottom, volume needs to decline in the = handle</DIV> <DIV>HBHC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>IBCP - poor c&h</DIV> <DIV>IBKC - B5</DIV> <DIV>NYCB - high handle</DIV> <DIV>OSIS - small c&h below the high, EPS only 73</DIV> <DIV>PORT - B6</DIV> <DIV>SSNC - long consolidation, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>TRBS - B5</DIV> <DIV>TTWO - b/o failed on over 4X ADV</DIV> <DIV>WCNX - possible c&h</DIV> <DIV>WM - B4</DIV> <DIV>YDNT - possible c&h</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, may everyone remain safe and = secure this=20 week</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:00ba01c25729$fd5559a0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00BC_01C25708.7662B350-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00BB_01C25708.7662B350 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00ba01c25729$fd5559a0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z 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