Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2002 07:44:59 -0400
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that's the least of Japan's problems
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: NANCY POLCARO=20
To: canslim=20
Sent: Tuesday, September 10, 2002 1:33 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
i read an article that said that one of the problems in Japan is that no =
on is spending but everyone is saving. Just the opposite of the U.S. =
where everyone is spending and running up debt and no one is saving.=20
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 10:05 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Hi Gene,
I was referring to Prechter's stance on stock cycles and doom and =
gloom based on Elliott Wave analysis, so was tongue-in-cheek suggesting =
an economics text to balance the view. (I think his "Tidal Wave" Bear =
book came out in 95 or 96. Add him to the stack with Ravi Batra "The =
Great Depression of 1990" and, just to be fair, "Dow 36000" and "Dow =
100000"). Either way, all things are possible.
Katherine
PS Scary thought to think anybody's reading Wade Cook for investment =
advice.
PPS...all dogs have their day.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:19 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Katherine, not sure what a 'real' economics book is...=20
I also bought O'Higgins book Beating the DJIA with the Dogs of the Dow =
strategy. Saw more interest in that strategy at yesterday's CANSLIM =
meeting than I did in what WON had to say. Heck they were even talking =
about a 'couch potato' strategy buying indexes.... My longs for tomorrow =
are: EK, XOM, SBC, JPM and IP.... the selections were 'no-brainers' ... =
http://www.dogsofthedow.com/doggish.htm May even buy some more IDA (hot =
pick 3 or 4 weeks ago)... paying about 7%
As I was leaving the country club one of the CANSLIM members was =
sitting in the lobby reading CASH FLOW and BEYOND by Wade Cook...=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 10:29 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Hi Gene,
Make sure you order some *real* economics books to go with it. :))
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 9:08 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Thanks Tom, this is from amazon.com ..... I just ordered his =
book...
Gene
In Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter explains why he thinks the =
boom times are behind us. Based on his interpretation of the Elliott =
Wave principle (an idea premised on the notion that mass investor =
psychology is what really drives markets), Prechter believes that the =
U.S. economy is about to enter into a deflationary depression that few =
investors are prepared to deal with. In making his case, Prechter =
assembles an impressive array of data that in essence suggests that the =
bill for the last 10 years of market excess is about to come due. The =
second half of the book shows how to avoid becoming "a zombie-eyed =
victim of the depression" and offers advice on protecting one's assets =
in a deflationary environment (cash is king). If there's any good news =
in the future that Prechter sees coming (other than how to avoid it), =
it's that all-out depressions don't last very long. Conquer the Crash =
should appeal to gloom-and-doom investors and to those desperately =
looking for a safe haven from the uncertainties of today's markets. =
- --Harry C. Edwards=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 8:51 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
I will take a shot at it, but am sure Katherine and others can =
do a better job.
Japan currently is suffering a deflationary recession. The =
deflation part of that phrase means prices are falling (opposite of =
inflation). The second part means the economy is shrinking. The key =
concern for investors is that producers cannot raise their prices to =
improve profits, and at the same time the shrinking economy means things =
are not going to get better any time soon.
A deflationary depression would seem to me to be essentially the =
same, but with the economy in even worse shape (I never did get the hang =
of the difference between recession and depression, other than the =
latter lasts longer and hurts more).
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 9:46 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.
Tom, can you help me understand deflationary depression?
Thanks,
Gene
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<BODY=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none; FONT: 10pt =
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>that's the least of Japan's =
problems</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DZILLAGIRL@msn.com href=3D"mailto:ZILLAGIRL@msn.com">NANCY =
POLCARO</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 10, 2002 1:33 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>i read an article that said that one of the problems in Japan is =
that no on=20
is spending but everyone is saving. Just the opposite of the U.S. where =
everyone=20
is spending and running up debt and no one is saving. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
Katherine Malm</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September 08, =
2002 10:05=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] For Tom =
W.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
<DIV>Hi Gene,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I was referring to Prechter's stance on stock cycles and doom and =
gloom=20
based on Elliott Wave analysis, so was tongue-in-cheek suggesting an =
economics=20
text to balance the view. (I think his "Tidal Wave" Bear book came out =
in 95=20
or 96. Add him to the stack with Ravi Batra "The Great Depression of =
1990"=20
and, just to be fair, "Dow 36000" and "Dow 100000"). Either way, all =
things=20
are possible.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS Scary thought to think anybody's reading Wade Cook for =
investment=20
advice.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PPS...all dogs have their day.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:19 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] For Tom W.</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Katherine, not sure what a 'real' =
economics=20
book is... </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I also bought O'Higgins book =
Beating the=20
DJIA with the Dogs of the Dow strategy. </FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic =
Sans MS">Saw=20
more interest in that strategy at yesterday's CANSLIM meeting than I =
did in=20
what WON had to say. Heck they were even talking about a 'couch =
potato'=20
strategy buying indexes.... M<FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">y longs for =
tomorrow=20
are: <FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">EK, XOM, SBC, JPM and IP.... the =
selections=20
were 'no-brainers' ... <A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.dogsofthedow.com/doggish.htm">http://www.dogsofthedow.=
com/doggish.htm</A> May=20
even buy some more IDA (hot pick 3 or 4 weeks ago)... paying about=20
7%</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">As I was leaving the country club =
one of the=20
CANSLIM members was sitting in the lobby reading CASH FLOW and BEYOND =
by Wade=20
Cook... </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September 08, =
2002 10:29=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] For =
Tom W.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Gene,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Make sure you order some *real* economics books to go with it.=20
:))</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September 08, =
2002 9:08=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] For =
Tom=20
W.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3Dserif><FONT face=3DTimes>Thanks Tom, this is =
from=20
amazon.com ..... I just ordered his book...</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3Dserif><FONT =
face=3DTimes>Gene</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3Dserif><FONT =
face=3DTimes></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3Dserif><FONT =
face=3DTimes></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3Dserif><FONT face=3DTimes>In <I>Conquer the =
Crash</I>,=20
Robert Prechter explains why he thinks the boom times are behind =
us. Based=20
on his interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle (an idea =
premised on=20
the notion that mass investor psychology is what really drives =
markets),=20
<STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Prechter believes that the U.S. =
economy is=20
about to enter into a deflationary depression that few investors =
are=20
prepared to deal with. In making his case, Prechter assembles an=20
impressive array of data that in essence suggests that the bill =
for the=20
last 10 years of market excess is about to come =
due.</FONT></STRONG> The=20
second half of the book shows how to avoid becoming "a zombie-eyed =
victim=20
of the depression" and offers advice on protecting one's assets in =
a=20
deflationary environment (cash is king). If there's any good news =
in the=20
future that Prechter sees coming (other than how to avoid it), =
it's that=20
all-out depressions don't last very long. <I>Conquer the Crash</I> =
should=20
appeal to gloom-and-doom investors and to those desperately =
looking for a=20
safe haven from the uncertainties of today's markets. <I>--Harry =
C.=20
Edwards</I> </FONT></SPAN><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September =
08, 2002=20
8:51 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
For Tom=20
W.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I will take a shot at it, but am sure =
Katherine=20
and others can do a better job.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Japan currently is suffering a =
deflationary=20
recession. The deflation part of that phrase means prices =
are=20
falling (opposite of inflation). The second part means the =
economy is=20
shrinking. The key concern for investors is that producers =
cannot raise=20
their prices to improve profits, and at the same time the =
shrinking=20
economy means things are not going to get better any time=20
soon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A deflationary depression would seem to =
me to be=20
essentially the same, but with the economy in even worse shape =
(I never=20
did get the hang of the difference between recession and =
depression,=20
other than the latter lasts longer and hurts more).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, September 08, 2002 9:46 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] For Tom W.</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Tom, can you help me=20
understand deflationary depression?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS">Gene</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>=
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