Re: [CANSLIM] COLM

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COLM
Date: Wed, 11 Sep 2002 19:39:34 -0500
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sorry...the link on that 3 yr chart should be
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/COLM0911023Yrs.jpg

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 11, 2002 7:22 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COLM


| Hi Kent,
|
| Re: "What we don't see is how many shares bought at some price have really
| | been sold at a loss, thus decreasing actual overhead supply.
| |
| | It would be nice to see how many shares still exist at each buy point
| | in the past. Even better to see the shares that are inclined to sell on
| | the way up and those that would hold on for the long run."
|
| Short of reading people's minds, I'm not sure how that would be possible!
|
| What we *do* know is the amount of activity at different price points and
| thus, the probability that it will create problems down the road. The only
| way to gauge that is to:
|
| (1) Know how long ago shares exchanged hands at higher prices. The longer
| ago it was, the less likely people will be itching to get out at those
| prices. See http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/COLM091102.jpg
| (2) The pattern of activity at different price points. The more selling
| activity at a price point, the greater the likelihood that this is a zone
of
| resistance. http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/COLM0911023yrs.jpg
| (3) The current activity leading up to the breakout area. The U/D volume
is
| a clue. While the stock is in the base, the higher the U/D volume, the
| greater the likelihood that buying is overcoming selling pressure as the
| stock nears its breakout.
| http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/COLM091102CwH.jpg
|
| Katherine
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Kent Norman" <kent_norman@yahoo.com>
| To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
| Sent: Wednesday, September 11, 2002 5:52 PM
| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COLM
|
|
| | Please set me straight if the following is in error:
| |
| | (Assuming a downward price pattern )
| |
| | The problem with a price and volume is that it only shows how many
| | shares traded at a certain price.
| |
| | When vol decreases, we interpret it as selling pressure diminishing.
| | Looking at the old prices, we assume there is overhead supply waiting
| | to bail out if the price ever gets near break even (could be a faulty
| | assumption).
| |
| | What we don't see is how many shares bought at some price have really
| | been sold at a loss, thus decreasing actual overhead supply.
| |
| | It would be nice to see how many shares still exist at each buy point
| | in the past. Even better to see the shares that are inclined to sell on
| | the way up and those that would hold on for the long run.
| |
| | Regards
| | Kent Norman
| |
| | --- Patrick Wahl <pjwahl@attbi.com> wrote:
| | > Its still valid though, isn't it?  The idea of overhead supply is
| | > that all those people
| | > who bought at old highs are just sitting there ready to get out at
| | > break even if the
| | > price ever gets back there, I would think that is still the situation
| | > after a year,
| | > although as time passes I suppose there is some share turnover as
| | > people just give
| | > up.  If this seems incorrect, let me know why.
| | >
| | > On 11 Sep 2002 at 12:55, Jack Tencza wrote:
| | >
| | > > Patrick, Why the overhead supply comment when it
| | > > hasn't been that high since 7/01? Thanks, Jack
| | >
| | >
| | >
| | > -
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