Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - disclaimer updated
Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2002 21:11:32 -0400
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] Investor Quiz 9/5/02 "Katherine Malm"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01F7_01C25C33.4CF0EB60 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_01F8_01C25C33.4CF0EB60" - ------=_NextPart_001_01F8_01C25C33.4CF0EB60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS In another disturbing sign of a weakening economy, Wholesale Inventories = rose by 0.6% in July after rising 0.4% in June. That is the biggest = increase since Nov 2000, and corporations are not likely to forget how = long it took to remove the last inventory glut. It is also another = indication that the weak job market is not going to strengthen soon, and = may weaken further. The only encouraging sign was that sales also rose = 0.6% after rising 0.7% in June, however more recent figures from the = likes of Wal-Mart and Target reflect below expectation sales, and = represent more current data. Home mortgage late payments and foreclosures are on the rise, with = foreclosures rising to 1.23% of all mortgages at the end of the second = quarter, highest on record. The hot housing market, and continued levels = of unemployment, may be affecting this. The delinquency rate rose to = 4.77% from 4.65% in the first quarter. The Fed Reserve reports that growth in consumer credit rose to a 7.6% = annual growth rate in July, while revolving credit (credit card debt, = home equity loans, etc.) jumped 10.8%. Demand for home mortgages remains high, with a new record set for = applications (up 16.9% from the prior week), and the seasonally adjusted = index up 19% from the prior week. The purchase index rose 11.6%, just = under a new record. The employment market continues its weakening trend, with new claims for = unemployment rising to 426,000 from an upward revision of the prior week = of 407K. Expectations were for a decline to 400K, and marks the third = week in a row where new claims exceeded 400K. The 4 week moving average = also rose, to 409,500 from 400,750. Continuing claims rose to 3.57 = million from 3.53 million. Makes last week's report by the Labor Dept = that overall unemployment dropped by 0.2% look even more unbelievable. Mr. Greenspan spoke to Congress on Thursday, and the best indications I = get are that the "recovery" in the economy is progressing slower than he = and the rest of FOMC expected. I see nothing to change my opinion that = we will get at least a 25 BP cut in rates at the 9/24 meeting. Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in August, continuing the weak = trend shown in the July report when it declined 0.2%. The core rate for = August fell 0.1% after the 0.3% decline in July. Expectations were for a = rise overall of 0.2% and 0.1% on the core rate. If producers cannot = raise prices, then profits can only improve through continuing growth in = productivity, or layoffs / cost reductions, neither of which will help = the job market. Anyone else see similarities to where Japan was several = years ago, and their deflationary cycle they now are in??=20 Japan won't cure their intrinsic problems with a corrupt banking system, = closed markets, and a cultural attitude of business and employment on a = "best friends" basis. They are now totally dependent on the US and = European economic recovery to generate demand for exports, and that's = just not happening fast enough to save them.=20 Who to believe, revisited?? Commerce Dept reports that retail sales rose = in August, Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment fell to 86.2 in early = Sept from 87.6 in August (current conditions, and expectations indexes = also fell sharply), and Wal-Mart and Target report weakening sales.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears essentially = stable, and small. ACMR - not sure how to read this one, did a decent double bottom before, = now just basing, or more a c&h?? ACXM - weak double bottom BLL - one of the few to hold a successful b/o from c&h, volume declining BLUD - B4 BMI - c&h, very low ADV DORL - B5 ERIE - B4 FBP - B5 FFFL - long consolidation (22 weeks) HBHC - LLUR HET - saucer HOV - c&h HRB - c&h IBKC - B6 INVN - starting to look like an early LLUR MBFI - B4 MCO - long consolidation MME - c&h, volume really dried up NUTR - B4 OCFC - c&h, volume picked up last two days over ADV, but still below = pivot PENN - rough c&h, approaching pivot PORT - B7 RMCI - nice base forming under the high SSNC - long consolidation, in my VR Fund TTWO - c&h Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_01F8_01C25C33.4CF0EB60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another disturbing sign of a weakening = economy,=20 Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.6% in July after rising 0.4% in June. = That is=20 the biggest increase since Nov 2000, and corporations are not likely to = forget=20 how long it took to remove the last inventory glut. It is also another=20 indication that the weak job market is not going to strengthen soon, and = may=20 weaken further. The only encouraging sign was that sales also rose 0.6% = after=20 rising 0.7% in June, however more recent figures from the likes of = Wal-Mart and=20 Target reflect below expectation sales, and represent more current=20 data.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Home mortgage late payments and foreclosures are = on the=20 rise, with foreclosures rising to 1.23% of all mortgages at the end of = the=20 second quarter, highest on record. The hot housing market, and continued = levels=20 of unemployment, may be affecting this. The delinquency rate rose to = 4.77% from=20 4.65% in the first quarter.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Fed Reserve reports that growth in consumer = credit=20 rose to a 7.6% annual growth rate in July, while revolving credit = (credit card=20 debt, home equity loans, etc.) jumped 10.8%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Demand for home mortgages remains high, with a = new record=20 set for applications (up 16.9% from the prior week), and the seasonally = adjusted=20 index up 19% from the prior week. The purchase index rose 11.6%, just = under a=20 new record.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The employment market continues its weakening = trend, with=20 new claims for unemployment rising to 426,000 from an upward revision of = the=20 prior week of 407K. Expectations were for a decline to 400K, and marks = the third=20 week in a row where new claims exceeded 400K. The 4 week moving average = also=20 rose, to 409,500 from 400,750. Continuing claims rose to 3.57 million = from 3.53=20 million. Makes last week's report by the Labor Dept that overall = unemployment=20 dropped by 0.2% look even more unbelievable.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mr. Greenspan spoke to Congress on Thursday, and = the best=20 indications I get are that the "recovery" in the economy is progressing = slower=20 than he and the rest of FOMC expected. I see nothing to change my = opinion that=20 we will get at least a 25 BP cut in rates at the 9/24 = meeting.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in = August,=20 continuing the weak trend shown in the July report when it declined = 0.2%. The=20 core rate for August fell 0.1% after the 0.3% decline in July. = Expectations were=20 for a rise overall of 0.2% and 0.1% on the core rate. If producers = cannot raise=20 prices, then profits can only improve through continuing growth in = productivity,=20 or layoffs / cost reductions, neither of which will help the job market. = Anyone=20 else see similarities to where Japan was several years ago, and their=20 deflationary cycle they now are in?? </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Japan won't cure their intrinsic problems with a = corrupt=20 banking system, closed markets, and a cultural attitude of business and=20 employment on a "best friends" basis. They are now totally dependent on = the US=20 and European economic recovery to generate demand for exports, and = that's just=20 not happening fast enough to save them. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Who to believe, revisited?? Commerce Dept = reports that=20 retail sales rose in August, Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment fell = to 86.2=20 in early Sept from 87.6 in August (current conditions, and expectations = indexes=20 also fell sharply), and Wal-Mart and Target report weakening sales.=20 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal=20 investing.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears essentially stable, and small.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACMR - not sure how to read this one, did a decent double bottom = before,=20 now just basing, or more a c&h??</DIV> <DIV>ACXM - weak double bottom</DIV> <DIV>BLL - one of the few to hold a successful b/o from c&h, volume=20 declining</DIV> <DIV>BLUD - B4</DIV> <DIV>BMI - c&h, very low ADV</DIV> <DIV>DORL - B5</DIV> <DIV>ERIE - B4</DIV> <DIV>FBP - B5</DIV> <DIV>FFFL - long consolidation (22 weeks)</DIV> <DIV>HBHC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HET - saucer</DIV> <DIV>HOV - c&h</DIV> <DIV>HRB - c&h</DIV> <DIV>IBKC - B6</DIV> <DIV>INVN - starting to look like an early LLUR</DIV> <DIV>MBFI - B4</DIV> <DIV>MCO - long consolidation</DIV> <DIV>MME - c&h, volume really dried up</DIV> <DIV>NUTR - B4</DIV> <DIV>OCFC - c&h, volume picked up last two days over ADV, but still = below=20 pivot</DIV> <DIV>PENN - rough c&h, approaching pivot</DIV> <DIV>PORT - B7</DIV> <DIV>RMCI - nice base forming under the high</DIV> <DIV>SSNC - long consolidation, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>TTWO - c&h</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting, and good luck</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:01f601c25c54$d4001a60$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_01F8_01C25C33.4CF0EB60-- - ------=_NextPart_000_01F7_01C25C33.4CF0EB60 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <01f601c25c54$d4001a60$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA 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