Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 21 Sep 2002 09:11:16 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS The Treasury Secretary believes the economy is recovering, pointing out = that interest rates at 40 year record lows are boosting the housing and = auto industry. Commerce Dept reports that US retail sales jumped 0.8% in = August, ignoring the fact that in June and July this figure grew 1.4% = and 1.1% respectively. So while there is growth, the rate is slowing, = and the trend is down on the very element that made the recession so = mild and short. And business spending is not picking up as expected, = despite a rise in capital spending in Q2. And the Administration is = sticking to the 5.7% unemployment rate previously reported.=20 A war with Iraq is expected to cost the USA between $100 and 200 = billion, roughly 1-2% of the GDP. But the Treasury Secretary encourages = us that we taxpayers may not need to spend this much "Importantly, the = president hasn't said we're going to war. He said he's determined that = there's going to be a regime change and so we'll see how this unfolds."=20 Of course, what's a few hundred billion more when we are already back = into deficit spending?? And we can also throw in a hundred billion or so = for the bailout of various Latin American countries already bankrupt or = nearly so. Who cares if it will do nothing to fix the corruption that = caused their problems in the first place? Through 11 months of this govt = fiscal year, we already overspent the govt income by $255 billion. And = less than two weeks from the start of the new fiscal year, Congress has = yet to pass a budget for 2003. I was in govt service when the USA = changed its fiscal year from ending June to ending September. Why the = change? Congress kept complaining that there was not enough time to = produce a complete budget, and they had to rush to get it done before = summer recess. Their excuse now? They are back from summer recess and = haven't had enough time for all their meetings and hearings. I'll bet if = their paychecks stopped on Sep 30, and only resumed (and not = retroactively) once the budget was completely done, then we might = actually have an approved budget on Oct 1 each year. Industrial production overall was reported on Tuesday as well below = expectations, and a negative number to boot (not that takes much these = days) completely offsetting the brief rally on news that Iraq agreed to = an unconditional surrender, oops, I mean inspection for WMD (with many = conditions to be announced). For August, the production was down 0.3% = (expectations were for a rise of 0.2%) running at 76% of capacity, which = was down 0.2% from July. The unexpected drop is blamed on auto = manufacturers (production of cars and parts down 1.4%) as they clear out = 2002 models (gee, and the economists could not expect that and factor it = into their expectations?? Isn't that, like, an annual event or = something?). This was the first decline recorded in industrial = production since Dec '01. Of course, they still have to explain the 0.5% = drop in consumer goods production, and the 0.4% drop in business = equipment production (also fell in July). Must be my old age, and short = term memory loss, but I would have sworn these were the very things the = Treasury Secretary, and economists, were pointing to as what would = slowly take us out of recession. Even manufacturing production fell = 0.1%, and durable goods production was flat, both also the worst since = Dec '01. Trade gap fell in July more than expected due to strong growth in = exports (fifth straight month, highest since June 2001 - credit to the = weakening dollar). Totaled $34.5 billion vs 37.16 in June and = expectations of a slight drop to 37 billion. Imports fell for the first = time in six months, a possible signal of weakening consumer demand, but = most likely much more a result of the heavy importing done over prior = months due to worries of a longshoremen's union threatened strike. Both overall and core CPI rates rose 0.3% in August, each 0.1% higher = than expected and up slightly from July. Apparel prices and cost of = energy were the two big contributors. Housing starts for new homes fell to 1.609 million units in August, down = from 1.645 million units in July (which was also revised downward) and = well under expectations of 1.674 million units. Equally of concern, = Building Permits also fell 2.5% to 1.669 million units from 1.712 = million units (forecast was for a small rise to 1.674 million units). = Last time starts declined for three months straight was mid year 2000. = Single family homes were down 4.4% while multifamily units were up 8.2%. = Biggest rise was over 9% in the Northeast, biggest fall was the Midwest = at nearly 19%. Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week to 424K, but still = exceeded expectations of 414K. The 4 week moving average rose again, to = 418,500. Continuing claims rose 71,000, biggest increase since March. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Still the # 2 economy in the world, Japan continues to ride the back of = the USA economy, hoping for our economic recovery to increase their = exports (and our trade deficits) and pull them out of deflation and = recession. In the latest two moves, first the govt plans to initiate a = buyback of stock from their banks in order to give the banks more = liquidity to clean up the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bad = loans. Of course, where does the Japanese govt get the cash? From = selling govt bonds. And their deficit spending and national debt is = already one of the worst globally. And for the first time in history, = the latest monthly sale of JGB failed to be fully subscribed. The govt = was not concerned, they will still get the money, because the banks and = broker dealers doing the sale have to buy up the over $3 billion left = over. Then again, I never did understand why anyone wanted a JGB with a = 1.2% yield. There is something seriously wrong with this picture, seems = more like a shell game to me. And the US economic recovery is Japan's = last gasp chance to avoid massive financial collapse and painful = restructuring (and they are very pain averse when it comes to reform). - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Basically, it's mighty ugly, and not getting better. Looking more and = more like we will retest the July 24 lows, and paint a double bottom on = most indexes by early October. With forward looking forecasts from = corporations becoming more bearish lately, a recovery in corp profits in = Q4 looks less likely. No one (but me) apparently thinks the Feds will = cut rates next week, but more economists are starting to expect a cut = before end of year. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears stable, and = continues to be dominated by banks and other financial institutions. BYD - high handle CCDC - nano cap, under $12 COCO - B3, may be resuming its LLUR COH - LLUR that turned into a c&h, volume declining ERES - was a smooth LLUR, more volatile now that it has been = "discovered" ERIE - B7 INVN - fell back this week, but still looks to me like an early stage = LLUR MBFI - B5 MWRK - 2nd handle on the cup? OSIS - 1st b/o from the c&h failed PDCO - weak double bottom PETM - another LLUR that turned into a c&h, this time with a high handle PORT - B8 RINO - c&h RMCI - low volume b/o below the high, doing a 2:1 split TTWO - c&h UCFC - saucer?? WCNX - deep c&h WGBC - c&h Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Treasury Secretary believes the economy is = recovering,=20 pointing out that interest rates at 40 year record lows are boosting the = housing=20 and auto industry. Commerce Dept reports that US retail sales jumped = 0.8% in=20 August, ignoring the fact that in June and July this figure grew 1.4% = and 1.1%=20 respectively. So while there is growth, the rate is slowing, and the = trend is=20 down on the very element that made the recession so mild and short. And = business=20 spending is not picking up as expected, despite a rise in capital = spending in=20 Q2. And the Administration is sticking to the 5.7% unemployment rate = previously=20 reported. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A war with Iraq is expected to cost the USA = between $100=20 and 200 billion, roughly 1-2% of the GDP. But the Treasury = Secretary=20 encourages us that we taxpayers may not need to spend this much = "</FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman">Importantly, the president hasn't said we're = going to=20 war. He said he's determined that there's going to be a regime change = and so=20 we'll see how this unfolds." </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Of course, what's a few hundred billion more = when we are=20 already back into deficit spending?? And we can also throw in a hundred = billion=20 or so for the bailout of various Latin American countries already = bankrupt or=20 nearly so. Who cares if it will do nothing to fix the corruption that = caused=20 their problems in the first place? Through 11 months of this govt fiscal = year,=20 we already overspent the govt income by $255 billion. And less than two = weeks=20 from the start of the new fiscal year, Congress has yet to pass a budget = for=20 2003. I was in govt service when the USA changed its fiscal year from = ending=20 June to ending September. Why the change? Congress kept complaining that = there=20 was not enough time to produce a complete budget, and they had to rush = to get it=20 done before summer recess. Their excuse now? They are back from summer = recess=20 and haven't had enough time for all their meetings and hearings. I'll = bet if=20 their paychecks stopped on Sep 30, and only resumed (and not = retroactively) once=20 the budget was completely done, then we might actually have an approved = budget=20 on Oct 1 each year.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial production overall was reported = on Tuesday=20 as well below expectations, and a negative number to boot (not that = takes much=20 these days) completely offsetting the brief rally on news that Iraq = agreed to an=20 unconditional surrender, oops, I mean inspection for WMD (with many = conditions=20 to be announced). For August, the production was down 0.3% (expectations = were=20 for a rise of 0.2%) running at 76% of capacity, which was down 0.2% from = July.=20 The unexpected drop is blamed on auto manufacturers (production of cars = and=20 parts down 1.4%) as they clear out 2002 models (gee, and the economists = could=20 not expect that and factor it into their expectations?? Isn't that, = like, an=20 annual event or something?). This was the first decline recorded in = industrial=20 production since Dec '01. Of course, they still have to explain the 0.5% = drop in=20 consumer goods production, and the 0.4% drop in business equipment = production=20 (also fell in July). Must be my old age, and short term memory loss, but = I would=20 have sworn these were the very things the Treasury Secretary, and = economists,=20 were pointing to as what would slowly take us out of recession. Even=20 manufacturing production fell 0.1%, and durable goods production was = flat, both=20 also the worst since Dec '01.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Trade gap fell in July more than expected due to = strong=20 growth in exports (fifth straight month, highest since June 2001 - = credit=20 to the weakening dollar). Totaled $34.5 billion vs 37.16 in June and=20 expectations of a slight drop to 37 billion. Imports fell for the first = time in=20 six months, a possible signal of weakening consumer demand, but most = likely much=20 more a result of the heavy importing done over prior months due to = worries of a=20 longshoremen's union threatened strike.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both overall and core CPI rates rose 0.3% in = August, each=20 0.1% higher than expected and up slightly from July. Apparel prices and = cost of=20 energy were the two big contributors.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts for new homes fell to 1.609 = million units=20 in August, down from 1.645 million units in July (which was also revised = downward) and well under expectations of 1.674 million units. Equally of = concern, Building Permits also fell 2.5% to 1.669 million units from = 1.712=20 million units (forecast was for a small rise to 1.674 million units). = Last time=20 starts declined for three months straight was mid year 2000. Single = family homes=20 were down 4.4% while multifamily units were up 8.2%. Biggest rise was = over 9% in=20 the Northeast, biggest fall was the Midwest at nearly 19%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week = to 424K,=20 but still exceeded expectations of 414K. The 4 week moving average rose = again,=20 to 418,500. Continuing claims rose 71,000, biggest increase since = March.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Still the # 2 economy in the world, Japan continues to ride the = back of the=20 USA economy, hoping for our economic recovery to increase their exports = (and our=20 trade deficits) and pull them out of deflation and recession. In the = latest two=20 moves, first the govt plans to initiate a buyback of stock from their = banks in=20 order to give the banks more liquidity to clean up the hundreds of = billions of=20 dollars worth of bad loans. Of course, where does the Japanese govt get = the=20 cash? From selling govt bonds. And their deficit spending and national = debt is=20 already one of the worst globally. And for the first time in history, = the latest=20 monthly sale of JGB failed to be fully subscribed. The govt was not = concerned,=20 they will still get the money, because the banks and broker dealers = doing the=20 sale have to buy up the over $3 billion left over. Then again, I never = did=20 understand why anyone wanted a JGB with a 1.2% yield. There is something = seriously wrong with this picture, seems more like a shell game to me. = And the=20 US economic recovery is Japan's last gasp chance to avoid massive = financial=20 collapse and painful restructuring (and they are very pain averse when = it comes=20 to reform). <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Basically, it's mighty ugly, and not getting better. Looking more = and more=20 like we will retest the July 24 lows, and paint a double bottom on most = indexes=20 by early October. With forward looking forecasts from corporations = becoming more=20 bearish lately, a recovery in corp profits in Q4 looks less likely. No = one (but=20 me) apparently thinks the Feds will cut rates next week, but more = economists are=20 starting to expect a cut before end of year.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears stable, and continues to be dominated by banks and other = financial=20 institutions.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BYD - high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CCDC - nano cap, under $12</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COCO - B3, may be resuming its LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COH - LLUR that turned into a c&h, volume=20 declining</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - was a smooth LLUR, more volatile now that = it has=20 been "discovered"</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERIE - B7</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>INVN - fell back this week, but still looks to = me like an=20 early stage LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MWRK - 2nd handle on the cup?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OSIS - 1st b/o from the c&h = failed</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PDCO - weak double bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - another LLUR that turned into a c&h, = this time=20 with a high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PORT - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RINO - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RMCI - low volume b/o below the high, doing a = 2:1=20 split</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TTWO - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>UCFC - saucer??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WCNX - deep c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WGBC - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, and good = luck</FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:002601c26170$5e664fb0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <002601c26170$5e664fb0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ 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