Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:48:20 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_004D_01C266DC.8F3C09B0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_004E_01C266DC.8F3C09B0" - ------=_NextPart_001_004E_01C266DC.8F3C09B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Leading Indicators failed to revive the market on Tuesday, coming in at = a negative 0.2% for August (expectations of 0.1% decline), even with the = upward revision of July from neg 0.4% to neg 0.1%. Third month in a row = that the Leading Indicators declined. Seven of the ten components of the = index indicated a weakening economy. Consumer confidence dipped again, to 93.3, for the fourth monthly drop = in a row, despite August being revised up to 94.5. The good news was = that it was not as bad as expected, which was a drop to 92.4. = Interestingly, the Present Situation Index plunged to 88.5 from 93.1. = Offsetting it was the Future Expectations, which managed to rise from = 95.5 to 96.5. Feds kept rates unchanged, and a bias towards a concern over economic = weakness rather than any fear of inflation. Still, two of the twelve = voters wanted a rate cut, first time there has been dissent in nine = months. Personally, I think Mr. G is waiting too long if he wants to get = this feeble economy doing anything before it slips back into recession. = Odds are now 88% in favor of a rate cut at the Nov 6 meeting, but = unlikely to be any action between this meeting and next. The Census Bureau reports that poverty level in the USA rose last year = for the first time in eight years, hitting a rate of 11.7%, up from = 11.3% in 2000. Overall, 32.9 million Americans were living in poverty = compared to 31.6 million. Median household income also declined 2.2% to = $42,228. Sales of existing homes fell 1.3% to 5.28 million/year (expectations for = a rise to 5.4 million from a revised July rate of 5.37 million). Last = year's record was 5.3 million units sold, expectations for this year's = total remain at 5.44 million units. And mortgage rates hit a new record = low last week (5.85% for a 30 year), but may start rising in the future = due increasing delinquency and default rates causing lending practices = to tighten. New jobless claims fell to 406,000 from 430K, expected was 420K. The 4 = week moving average slipped to 419K from 420K. Durable goods orders for August only fell 0.6% against expectations of a = drop of 2.6 to 3.4%. Some forecasts were for a drop of as much as 4.8%. = Excluding defense goods, the rate rose 0.6%. Excluding transportation, = the orders fell 0.9%. IMF (Int'l Monetary Fund) trimmed its forecasts for this year and next = globally. Overall, it lowered forecasts for the global economy to 2.8%, = only slightly ahead of last year's 2.2% growth (worst in a decade). For = 2003, they shaved 0.3%, lowering the forecast to 3.7%. For the USA, = growth this year was cut to 2.2% and for next year to only 2.6% (down = 0.8%). Sure, the worst is over, and if you are sure of that, I have a bridge or = two to sell you. That's why SBC Comms announced layoffs of another = 11,000 workers for the 4th qtr, along with a cut in capital equipment = spending of over 30% for next year. Remember the scenario, eventually = the strong consumer spending that made the recession so shallow and = brought us out so quickly would slow, but by then corporate spending = would kick in as the economy improved and they ramped up production?? So = far consumer spending has not substantially slowed, even tho retailers = including WalMart and Target already warned of weak sales at stores = opened a year or more. But business spending is not increasing either. Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment for Sept was revised down = slightly, to 86.1 from 86.2, and continuing a trend down (August final = was 87.6). Expectations were for a revision to 86.0. Current conditions = index fell to 95.8 from 98.5 in August, and Expectation index fell to = 79.9 from 80.6. Final figures for the 2nd Qtr GDP were revised upward to 1.3% from 1.1%. = Consumer spending rose 1.8%. Business investment in new plants and = equipment fell 2.4%.=20 Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill reassured the Group of 7 that met in = advance of the annual meetings of IMF and the World Bank that the USA = had "weathered the storm" and should resume stronger growth in the = months ahead. In a continuing labor dispute during ongoing contract negotiations, = Management of all West Coast ports locked out dock workers from 6PM = Friday to 8 AM Sunday, charging the union with "strike with pay" by = organizing a work slowdown. One sticking point? Data collected at other = computers is entered by hand at computers at the port by union clerks, = Management wants the data downloaded and offered job guarantees for = clerks no longer needed. The union wants staffing level guarantees, and = jurisdiction for other work at the ports. Worth noting - major retailers = estimate that every one day delay at the port can back up goods for = about one week, and right now the ports are busy with unloading = merchandise for the Christmas shopping season. If it's not on the shelf = in the stores, consumers don't buy it. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is the smallest I = can recall in a long time. I don't expect much from it. APOL - LLUR BYD - nice b/o from the handle 9/25, but volume not convincing CCCG - c&h CECO - consolidating COCO - B4 DF - B3 ERES - LLUR MWRK - c&h, nice capitulation right in the middle of the cup, good = symmetry PETM - c&h PORT - B8 PXXI - B4 SBMC - B3 THO - c&h TTWO - passed pivot of the handle on 3X ADV on Friday Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_004E_01C266DC.8F3C09B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Leading Indicators failed to revive the market = on Tuesday,=20 coming in at a negative 0.2% for August (expectations of 0.1% decline), = even=20 with the upward revision of July from neg 0.4% to neg 0.1%. Third month = in a row=20 that the Leading Indicators declined. Seven of the ten components of the = index=20 indicated a weakening economy.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer confidence dipped again, to 93.3, for = the fourth=20 monthly drop in a row, despite August being revised = up to=20 94.5. The good news was that it was not as bad as expected, which was a = drop to=20 92.4. Interestingly, the Present Situation Index plunged to 88.5 from = 93.1.=20 Offsetting it was the Future Expectations, which managed to rise from = 95.5 to=20 96.5.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Feds kept rates unchanged, and a bias towards a = concern=20 over economic weakness rather than any fear of inflation. Still, two of = the=20 twelve voters wanted a rate cut, first time there has been dissent in = nine=20 months. Personally, I think Mr. G is waiting too long if he wants to get = this=20 feeble economy doing anything before it slips back into recession. Odds = are now=20 88% in favor of a rate cut at the Nov 6 meeting, but unlikely to be any = action=20 between this meeting and next.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Census Bureau reports that poverty level in = the USA=20 rose last year for the first time in eight years, hitting a rate of = 11.7%, up=20 from 11.3% in 2000. Overall, 32.9 million Americans were living in = poverty=20 compared to 31.6 million. Median household income also declined 2.2% to=20 $42,228.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sales of existing homes fell 1.3% to 5.28 = million/year=20 (expectations for a rise to 5.4 million from a revised July rate of 5.37 = million). Last year's record was 5.3 million units sold, expectations = for this=20 year's total remain at 5.44 million units. And mortgage rates hit a new = record=20 low last week (5.85% for a 30 year), but may start rising in the future = due=20 increasing delinquency and default rates causing lending practices to=20 tighten.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New jobless claims fell to 406,000 from 430K, = expected was=20 420K. The 4 week moving average slipped to 419K from 420K.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders for August only fell 0.6% = against=20 expectations of a drop of 2.6 to 3.4%. Some forecasts were for a drop of = as much=20 as 4.8%. Excluding defense goods, the rate rose 0.6%. Excluding = transportation,=20 the orders fell 0.9%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMF (Int'l Monetary Fund) trimmed its forecasts = for this=20 year and next globally. Overall, it lowered forecasts for the global=20 economy to 2.8%, only slightly ahead of last year's 2.2% growth = (worst in a=20 decade). For 2003, they shaved 0.3%, lowering the forecast to 3.7%. For = the USA,=20 growth this year was cut to 2.2% and for next year to only 2.6% (down=20 0.8%).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sure, the worst is over, and if you are sure of = that, I=20 have a bridge or two to sell you. That's why SBC Comms announced layoffs = of=20 another 11,000 workers for the 4th qtr, along with a cut in capital = equipment=20 spending of over 30% for next year. Remember the scenario, eventually = the strong=20 consumer spending that made the recession so shallow and brought us out = so=20 quickly would slow, but by then corporate spending would kick in as the = economy=20 improved and they ramped up production?? So far consumer spending has = not=20 substantially slowed, even tho retailers including WalMart and Target = already=20 warned of weak sales at stores opened a year or more. But business = spending is=20 not increasing either.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment for Sept = was=20 revised down slightly, to 86.1 from 86.2, and continuing a trend down = (August=20 final was 87.6). Expectations were for a revision to 86.0. Current = conditions=20 index fell to 95.8 from 98.5 in August, and Expectation index fell to = 79.9 from=20 80.6.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Final figures for the 2nd Qtr GDP were revised = upward to=20 1.3% from 1.1%. Consumer spending rose 1.8%. Business investment in new = plants=20 and equipment fell 2.4%. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill reassured the = Group of 7=20 that met in advance of the annual meetings of IMF and the World Bank = that the=20 USA had "weathered the storm" and should resume stronger growth in the = months=20 ahead.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In a continuing labor dispute during ongoing = contract=20 negotiations, Management of all West Coast ports locked out dock workers = from=20 6PM Friday to 8 AM Sunday, charging the union with "strike with pay" by=20 organizing a work slowdown. One sticking point? Data collected at other=20 computers is entered by hand at computers at the port by union clerks,=20 Management wants the data downloaded and offered job guarantees for = clerks no=20 longer needed. The union wants staffing level guarantees, and = jurisdiction for=20 other work at the ports. Worth noting - major retailers estimate that = every one=20 day delay at the port can back up goods for about one week, and right = now the=20 ports are busy with unloading merchandise for the Christmas shopping = season. If=20 it's not on the shelf in the stores, consumers don't buy = it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 the smallest I can recall in a long time. I don't expect much from=20 it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BYD - nice b/o from the handle 9/25, but volume = not=20 convincing</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CCCG - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CECO - consolidating</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COCO - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DF - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MWRK - c&h, nice capitulation right in the = middle of=20 the cup, good symmetry</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PORT - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PXXI - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SBMC - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>THO - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TTWO - passed pivot of the handle on 3X ADV on=20 Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:004c01c266fe$1641c2d0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_004E_01C266DC.8F3C09B0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_004D_01C266DC.8F3C09B0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <004c01c266fe$1641c2d0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z 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