Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 22:49:37 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C26A65.FC748110 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable concur, the port strike takes about a billion dollars off the GDP every = day it goes on (now day 4 and counting). I suspect the ripple effect on = both manufacturing and retail sales makes this figure understated if it = goes on for more than several weeks. Lots of manufacturers depend on = "just in time" supply of parts and components. Many stocked up in = anticipation of the strike, but typically only about a week's supply of = what they need. After that, they start shutting down production lines = and laying off workers. Isidore, and now Lili, forced the evacuation of oil platforms in the = Gulf. Barring major damage to them, they lose a few days production. = Inventories were already low despite the lack of heavy consumption = during the summer (no one wants to pay the Iraqi war premium currently = priced into the market). But daily consumption of course continued while = these storms were/are in the Gulf, so of course inventories would see a = "dramatic decline", which lasts a few days. Long term effect (barring = major damage to a lot of oil rigs, that is) will be just a blip on the = charts. I am a pretty good hurricane forecaster, and studied the oil futures for = several years to see if I could make some money off them during = hurricane induced volatility. Conclusion: unless I was willing (and had = the time) to day trade, the effect was so short lived it wasn't worth = the risk. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, October 02, 2002 6:03 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of It won't have nearly the effect on the U.S. economy that the West Coast = port stoppage will if that is not settled by Friday. -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short Sent: Wednesday, October 02, 2002 4:24 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of Any thoughts on how Hurricane Lili(putian?) will affect oil production = given this info from DismalEconomist.com: RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States] (275.2 MB) FIRST TAKE: Crude oil inventories showed a dramatic decline during the week ending September 27. According to the EIA, crude stocks fell to their lowest level since 1982. The steep draw in crude inventories can = be attributed to Tropical Storm Isidore. Markets will be looking = anxiously for signs of normalization next week.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C26A65.FC748110 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE></TITLE> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>concur, the port strike takes about a billion = dollars off=20 the GDP every day it goes on (now day 4 and counting). I suspect the = ripple=20 effect on both manufacturing and retail sales makes this figure = understated if=20 it goes on for more than several weeks. Lots of manufacturers depend on = "just in=20 time" supply of parts and components. Many stocked up in anticipation of = the=20 strike, but typically only about a week's supply of what they need. = After that,=20 they start shutting down production lines and laying off = workers.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Isidore, and now Lili, forced the evacuation of = oil=20 platforms in the Gulf. Barring major damage to them, they lose a few = days=20 production. Inventories were already low despite the lack of heavy = consumption=20 during the summer (no one wants to pay the Iraqi war premium currently = priced=20 into the market). But daily consumption of course continued while these = storms=20 were/are in the Gulf, so of course inventories would see a "dramatic = decline",=20 which lasts a few days. Long term effect (barring major damage to a lot = of oil=20 rigs, that is) will be just a blip on the charts.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am a pretty good hurricane forecaster, and = studied the=20 oil futures for several years to see if I could make some money off them = during=20 hurricane induced volatility. Conclusion: unless I was willing (and had = the=20 time) to day trade, the effect was so short lived it wasn't worth the=20 risk.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20 <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20 title=3Dffradrich@attbi.com href=3D"mailto:ffradrich@attbi.com">Fred = Richards</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 02, 2002 6:03 PM</DIV> <DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D930050322-02102002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>It=20 won't have nearly the effect on the U.S. economy that the West Coast = port=20 stoppage will if that is not settled by Friday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com</A>=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Kelly=20 Short<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 02, 2002 4:24 = PM<BR><B>To:</B> <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR><B>Subject:</B>=20 [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <P><FONT size=3D2>Any thoughts on how Hurricane Lili(putian?) will = affect oil=20 production given this info from DismalEconomist.com:<BR><BR>RELEASE: = Oil and=20 Gas Inventories [United States] (275.2 MB)<BR>FIRST TAKE: Crude oil=20 inventories showed a dramatic decline during the<BR>week ending = September 27.=20 According to the EIA, crude stocks fell to<BR>their lowest level since = 1982.=20 <U>The steep draw in crude inventories can be<BR>attributed to = Tropical Storm=20 Isidore</U>. Markets will be looking anxiously<BR>for signs of = normalization=20 next week.</FONT> </P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C26A65.FC748110-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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