Re: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 22:49:37 -0400
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concur, the port strike takes about a billion dollars off the GDP every =
day it goes on (now day 4 and counting). I suspect the ripple effect on =
both manufacturing and retail sales makes this figure understated if it =
goes on for more than several weeks. Lots of manufacturers depend on =
"just in time" supply of parts and components. Many stocked up in =
anticipation of the strike, but typically only about a week's supply of =
what they need. After that, they start shutting down production lines =
and laying off workers.

Isidore, and now Lili, forced the evacuation of oil platforms in the =
Gulf. Barring major damage to them, they lose a few days production. =
Inventories were already low despite the lack of heavy consumption =
during the summer (no one wants to pay the Iraqi war premium currently =
priced into the market). But daily consumption of course continued while =
these storms were/are in the Gulf, so of course inventories would see a =
"dramatic decline", which lasts a few days. Long term effect (barring =
major damage to a lot of oil rigs, that is) will be just a blip on the =
charts.

I am a pretty good hurricane forecaster, and studied the oil futures for =
several years to see if I could make some money off them during =
hurricane induced volatility. Conclusion: unless I was willing (and had =
the time) to day trade, the effect was so short lived it wasn't worth =
the risk.

- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Fred Richards=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, October 02, 2002 6:03 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of


It won't have nearly the effect on the U.S. economy that the West Coast =
port stoppage will if that is not settled by Friday.
  -----Original Message-----
  From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Kelly Short
  Sent: Wednesday, October 02, 2002 4:24 PM
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
  Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of


  Any thoughts on how Hurricane Lili(putian?) will affect oil production =
given this info from DismalEconomist.com:

  RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States] (275.2 MB)
  FIRST TAKE: Crude oil inventories showed a dramatic decline during the
  week ending September 27. According to the EIA, crude stocks fell to
  their lowest level since 1982. The steep draw in crude inventories can =
be
  attributed to Tropical Storm Isidore. Markets will be looking =
anxiously
  for signs of normalization next week.=20

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>concur, the port strike takes about a billion =
dollars off=20
the GDP every day it goes on (now day 4 and counting). I suspect the =
ripple=20
effect on both manufacturing and retail sales makes this figure =
understated if=20
it goes on for more than several weeks. Lots of manufacturers depend on =
"just in=20
time" supply of parts and components. Many stocked up in anticipation of =
the=20
strike, but typically only about a week's supply of what they need. =
After that,=20
they start shutting down production lines and laying off =
workers.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Isidore, and now Lili, forced the evacuation of =
oil=20
platforms in the Gulf. Barring major damage to them, they lose a few =
days=20
production. Inventories were already low despite the lack of heavy =
consumption=20
during the summer (no one wants to pay the Iraqi war premium currently =
priced=20
into the market). But daily consumption of course continued while these =
storms=20
were/are in the Gulf, so of course inventories would see a "dramatic =
decline",=20
which lasts a few days. Long term effect (barring major damage to a lot =
of oil=20
rigs, that is) will be just a blip on the charts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am a pretty good hurricane forecaster, and =
studied the=20
oil futures for several years to see if I could make some money off them =
during=20
hurricane induced volatility. Conclusion: unless I was willing (and had =
the=20
time) to day trade, the effect was so short lived it wasn't worth the=20
risk.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dffradrich@attbi.com href=3D"mailto:ffradrich@attbi.com">Fred =
Richards</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 02, 2002 6:03 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D930050322-02102002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>It=20
won't have nearly the effect on the U.S. economy that the West Coast =
port=20
stoppage will if that is not settled by Friday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
  size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
  [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Kelly=20
  Short<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 02, 2002 4:24 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B> <A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR><B>Subject:</B>=20
  [CANSLIM] "M" ..... sort of<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <P><FONT size=3D2>Any thoughts on how Hurricane Lili(putian?) will =
affect oil=20
  production given this info from DismalEconomist.com:<BR><BR>RELEASE: =
Oil and=20
  Gas Inventories [United States] (275.2 MB)<BR>FIRST TAKE: Crude oil=20
  inventories showed a dramatic decline during the<BR>week ending =
September 27.=20
  According to the EIA, crude stocks fell to<BR>their lowest level since =
1982.=20
  <U>The steep draw in crude inventories can be<BR>attributed to =
Tropical Storm=20
  Isidore</U>. Markets will be looking anxiously<BR>for signs of =
normalization=20
  next week.</FONT> </P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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