Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: RWElmer@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 14:14:27 EDT
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Hello Tom,

Thanks for continuing to post your Worley's Weekend Weeview, despite this 
awful Market. This kind of discipline obviously serves you well in investing. 

This week's Weeview was particularly thorough and informative. I sell Real 
Estate in extreme northern California and I have felt extremely lucky to be 
experiencing the most vigorous Real Estate Market in a decade while the rest 
of the Economy is floundering. I must admit to feeling a bit nervous lately 
as to how long the good times will last here though. Our area is considered a 
bargain compared to other areas in California, but an increase of prices YTD 
of about 30% is starting to dissolve that advantage. 

Our biggest problem here in Redding is that we are almost totally a service 
based economy, with the vast majority of jobs being in the minimum wage to 
$10 an hour range. I can't help but see our area as a bit of a microcosm of 
the larger economy. Things are all well and good as long as consumer demand 
is high. For us that means and inflow of money from down in the Bay area. But 
once that source dries up, the locals cannot support house prices much higher 
than they are now.

In the greater Economy the spending is coming courtesy of 0% financing and 
low rate mortgage refinancing. What happens when this dries up? Will 
manufacturing and corporate cap ex spending kick in to bail us out? One thing 
I'm wondering is how long a life so much of the high tech equipment bought 
pre Y2K has. When will it be time to start replacing this equipment? 
Hopefully it's before too much longer. At this point that's one of only two 
possible light I see. The other light I see is a grasp. That is that nobody 
seems to see things getting better and the masses are usually wrong. 
Basically the old Contrarian stance. 

With that thought in mind, and realizing that you are in that rare time 
period of holding cash, I wonder if you would be so kind as to publicly throw 
in the towel and swear off stocks for good. Then, until the next Bull is 
firmly in place, you could begin any thoughts on things you're considering 
buying with a, "If I were ever to buy a stock again, here's one I'd 
consider." 

Just some random thoughts in a dull, dull, dull Market.

Best Regards, 

Robert W. Elmer
Coldwell Banker First Shasta
2837 Bechelli Ln.
Redding, CA 96002
RWElmer@aol.com
221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156
www.robertelmer.com

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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2>Hello Tom,
<BR>
<BR>Thanks for continuing to post your Worley's Weekend Weeview, despite this awful Market. This kind of discipline obviously serves you well in investing. 
<BR>
<BR>This week's Weeview was particularly thorough and informative. I sell Real Estate in extreme northern California and I have felt extremely lucky to be experiencing the most vigorous Real Estate Market in a decade while the rest of the Economy is floundering. I must admit to feeling a bit nervous lately as to how long the good times will last here though. Our area is considered a bargain compared to other areas in California, but an increase of prices YTD of about 30% is starting to dissolve that advantage. 
<BR>
<BR>Our biggest problem here in Redding is that we are almost totally a service based economy, with the vast majority of jobs being in the minimum wage to $10 an hour range. I can't help but see our area as a bit of a microcosm of the larger economy. Things are all well and good as long as consumer demand is high. For us that means and inflow of money from down in the Bay area. But once that source dries up, the locals cannot support house prices much higher than they are now.
<BR>
<BR>In the greater Economy the spending is coming courtesy of 0% financing and low rate mortgage refinancing. What happens when this dries up? Will manufacturing and corporate cap ex spending kick in to bail us out? One thing I'm wondering is how long a life so much of the high tech equipment bought pre Y2K has. When will it be time to start replacing this equipment? Hopefully it's before too much longer. At this point that's one of only two possible light I see. The other light I see is a grasp. That is that nobody seems to see things getting better and the masses are usually wrong. Basically the old Contrarian stance. 
<BR>
<BR>With that thought in mind, and realizing that you are in that rare time period of holding cash, I wonder if you would be so kind as to publicly throw in the towel and swear off stocks for good. Then, until the next Bull is firmly in place, you could begin any thoughts on things you're considering buying with a, "If I were ever to buy a stock again, here's one I'd consider." 
<BR>
<BR>Just some random thoughts in a dull, dull, dull Market.
<BR>
<BR>Best Regards, 
<BR>
<BR><B>Robert W. Elmer
<BR>Coldwell Banker First Shasta
<BR>2837 Bechelli Ln.
<BR>Redding, CA 96002</B>
<BR></FONT><FONT  COLOR="#0080ff" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"><B>RWElmer@aol.com</FONT><FONT  COLOR="#000000" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"></B>
<BR></FONT><FONT  COLOR="#0000ff" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"><B>221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156</FONT><FONT  COLOR="#000000" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"></B>
<BR></FONT><FONT  COLOR="#800080" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"><B>www.robertelmer.com</B></FONT></HTML>

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