Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 12:11:27 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B4_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980" - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable JAPAN This week saw more details finally emerge on the govt thinking of the = steps necessary to clean up their economy. The central Bank of Japan = (BOJ)disclosed its stock buyback plan (buy at market, max of 500 billion = yen per bank, spend two trillion over the next year or so, start as soon = as approved, max of 5% position in any company, won't sell until after = Sept 2007, won't sell at a loss, will complete selling by Sept 2017). Of = course this won't change anything regarding bad loans, which the banks = will now be forced to write down more rapidly. But BOJ also made it = clear that higher standards closer to international accounting must be = used both for credit risk assessment, and for defining what loans are in = default or non-performing. The govt also floated the concept that no = bank, or company, is too big to fail. Initial reaction, of course, was a = further selloff taking the NIKKEI well under 8,500. But it did manage to = recover two thirds of its worst one day loss by the close, and finish = the week with a small gain taking it back over 8,500. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS As most know, consumer spending represents two thirds of the engine that = drives the US economy. Signs lately show weakness, which have already = been reported in a number of weekly sales reports by retailers, = including WalMart and Target. Now, the Federal Reserve reports that = consumer credit grew in August by only $4.2 billion, an annual rate of = 2.9% and slowest growth since December. Expected was an $11.1 billion = boost (consumer debt now totals $1.73 trillion). And remember, this is = the report for August. July's report was also revised down slightly, to = a growth of $10.1 billion and an annual rate of 10%. Noteworthy in the = August report was non-revolving credit (cars, vacations, etc.), which = grew only by $243.4 million, only an 0.3% annual rate and the slowest = since June 1999. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, grew = 6.5%, down from July's 10.6% rate. Other signs such as the Univ. of = Michigan consumer sentiment suggest consumer spending got considerably = worse in September.=20 Wholesale inventories grew a little in August, up 0.2%, after rising = 0.6% in July. Expected was a gain of 0.3%. However, there was a sharp = drop in auto inventories (down 2.3%), fueled by the continued low and = zero percent financing available, which offset rises in inventory = (professional equipment and computers both up 1.3% for example) in most = other sectors. Overall durable goods inventories were up 0.2% after = rising 0.6% in July. Overall sales also appeared strong rising 0.9%, = better than July's 0.7%. However, again car sales distort this number as = they were up 4.1%. This also showed in the sales of durable goods, up = 0.3% after July's 0.1% rise. Further adding to the evidence of weakening consumer spending is = Friday's release of Retail Sales from Commerce, down 1.2% for September = following the revised 0.6% rise in August. Without car sales, it was = actually up 0.1% compared to August's gain of 0.3% (without cars) of = 0.3%.=20 Producer Price Index, both overall and core, rose 0.1% for September = after being flat in August, and down 0.1% for the core (excludes food = and energy). So inflation is still not a concern, but no one seems to be = talking about the risk of deflation despite the PPI being down 1.9% for = the past year, with the core rate down a record 0.4% for the same = period. So producers not only can't raise prices, they are having to cut = them. Isn't that the classic definition of deflation? As mentioned above, the Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index = dropped sharply in its preliminary report for October, down to 80.4 from = 86.1. Economists had expected a moderate drop only to 85.2. The = expectations component was particularly notable, dropping to 72.4 from = 79.9 in September. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" One immediate threat to economic recovery was reduced with the court = ordered ending of the West Coast port shutdown. Persistent stories = continue that the longshoremen are strictly enforcing safety rules, thus = slowing down the removal of all the backlogged containers. I can only = imagine the chaos they are trying to clear right now, and with 5 dead in = the past six months during container operations, it's hard to really = fault them for this, even if it is being used deliberately as a slowdown = tactic. Estimates range from 3 weeks (port authority) to ten weeks = (various) to clear out the complete backlog and resume normal = operations. Of course, that would just about use up the 80 day cooling = off period as well. And the threat of a pending war with Iraq seems to = have eased slightly as well. This week's rally appears to me to be more = of a bounce from oversold conditions, led by short covering. Volume past = two days doesn't impress me as suggesting the massive amount of = sidelined cash is yet rushing back in. Nor does the trend in RS lines = suggest to me a sustained rally. I also note that NYSE Financials index = fell all the way back, it had been showing more strength the past = months. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is small, and = stable. AG - approaching pivot on a decent c&h, nearly 2X ADV on Friday APOL - LLUR AZO - nice looking c&h, may be nearing a b/o BG - at pivot of a double bottom BUD - interesting chart, possible institutional support at the 50 dma CCE - c&h CECO - LLUR CENT - very nice c&h at new highs COCO - LLUR, Lots of continuous insider selling CPBI - c&h, but too deep ERES - LLUR MBFI - B7 ZMH - B3 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This week saw more details finally emerge on the = govt=20 thinking of the steps necessary to clean up their economy. The central = Bank of=20 Japan (BOJ)disclosed its stock buyback plan (buy at market, max of 500 = billion=20 yen per bank, spend two trillion over the next year or so, start as soon = as=20 approved, max of 5% position in any company, won't sell until after Sept = 2007,=20 won't sell at a loss, will complete selling by Sept 2017). Of course = this won't=20 change anything regarding bad loans, which the banks will now be forced = to write=20 down more rapidly. But BOJ also made it clear that higher standards = closer to=20 international accounting must be used both for credit risk assessment, = and for=20 defining what loans are in default or non-performing. The govt = also=20 floated the concept that no bank, or company, is too big to fail. = Initial=20 reaction, of course, was a further selloff taking the NIKKEI well under = 8,500.=20 But it did manage to recover two thirds of its worst one day loss by the = close,=20 and finish the week with a small gain taking it back over 8,500. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As most know, consumer spending represents two = thirds of=20 the engine that drives the US economy. Signs lately show weakness, which = have=20 already been reported in a number of weekly sales reports by retailers,=20 including WalMart and Target. Now, the Federal Reserve reports that = consumer=20 credit grew in August by only $4.2 billion, an annual rate of 2.9% and = slowest=20 growth since December. Expected was an $11.1 billion boost (consumer = debt now=20 totals $1.73 trillion). And remember, this is the report for August. = July's=20 report was also revised down slightly, to a growth of $10.1 billion and = an=20 annual rate of 10%. Noteworthy in the August report was non-revolving = credit=20 (cars, vacations, etc.), which grew only by $243.4 million, only an 0.3% = annual=20 rate and the slowest since June 1999. Revolving credit, which = includes=20 credit cards, grew 6.5%, down from July's 10.6% rate. Other signs such = as the=20 Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment suggest consumer spending got = considerably worse in September. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories grew a little in August, = up 0.2%,=20 after rising 0.6% in July. Expected was a gain of 0.3%. However, there = was a=20 sharp drop in auto inventories (down 2.3%), fueled by the continued low = and zero=20 percent financing available, which offset rises in inventory = (professional=20 equipment and computers both up 1.3% for example) in most other sectors. = Overall=20 durable goods inventories were up 0.2% after rising 0.6% in July. = Overall sales=20 also appeared strong rising 0.9%, better than July's 0.7%. However, = again car=20 sales distort this number as they were up 4.1%. This also showed in the = sales of=20 durable goods, up 0.3% after July's 0.1% rise.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Further adding to the evidence of weakening = consumer=20 spending is Friday's release of Retail Sales from Commerce, = down 1.2% for=20 September following the revised 0.6% rise in August. Without car sales, = it was=20 actually up 0.1% compared to August's gain of 0.3% (without cars) of = 0.3%.=20 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Producer Price Index, both overall and core, = rose 0.1% for=20 September after being flat in August, and down 0.1% for the core = (excludes food=20 and energy). So inflation is still not a concern, but no one seems to be = talking=20 about the risk of deflation despite the PPI being down 1.9% for the past = year,=20 with the core rate down a record 0.4% for the same period. So producers = not only=20 can't raise prices, they are having to cut them. Isn't that the classic=20 definition of deflation?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As mentioned above, the Univ. of Michigan's = consumer=20 sentiment index dropped sharply in its preliminary report for October, = down to=20 80.4 from 86.1. Economists had expected a moderate drop only to 85.2. = The=20 expectations component was particularly notable, dropping to 72.4 from = 79.9 in=20 September.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> "M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>One immediate threat to economic recovery was = reduced with=20 the court ordered ending of the West Coast port shutdown. Persistent = stories=20 continue that the longshoremen are strictly enforcing safety rules, thus = slowing=20 down the removal of all the backlogged containers. I can only imagine = the chaos=20 they are trying to clear right now, and with 5 dead in the past six = months=20 during container operations, it's hard to really fault them for this, = even if it=20 is being used deliberately as a slowdown tactic. Estimates range from 3 = weeks=20 (port authority) to ten weeks (various) to clear out the complete = backlog and=20 resume normal operations. Of course, that would just about use up the 80 = day=20 cooling off period as well. And the threat of a pending war with Iraq = seems to=20 have eased slightly as well. This week's rally appears to me to be more = of a=20 bounce from oversold conditions, led by short covering. Volume past two = days=20 doesn't impress me as suggesting the massive amount of sidelined cash is = yet=20 rushing back in. Nor does the trend in RS lines suggest to me a = sustained rally.=20 I also note that NYSE Financials index fell all the way back, it had = been=20 showing more strength the past months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 small, and stable.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AG - approaching pivot on a decent c&h, = nearly 2X ADV=20 on Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AZO - nice looking c&h, may be nearing = a=20 b/o</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BG - at pivot of a double bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BUD - interesting chart, possible institutional = support at=20 the 50 dma</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CCE - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CECO - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CENT - very nice c&h at new = highs</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COCO - LLUR, Lots of continuous insider=20 selling</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CPBI - c&h, but too deep</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - B7</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ZMH - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00b301c2720a$04d73f90$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00B4_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00b301c2720a$04d73f90$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA 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