Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 10:19:36 -0400
Previous Article (by Subject): RE: [CANSLIM] watchlist / portfolio philosophy Chris Dempsey
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C27759.069AD400 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0027_01C27759.069AD400" - ------=_NextPart_001_0027_01C27759.069AD400 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Inventories fell an unexpected 0.1% in August at all levels (retail, = wholesale, manufacturing) including a 0.5% drop in autos and parts. This = is before any effect from the closure of West Coast ports. Inventories = were up 0.4% in July, and had been expected to increase by 0.1%, so = combined with evidence of slowing consumer spending, suggests a small = reduction in business activity. Sales grew by 0.2% after rising 1.3% in = July. New jobless claims surged back over 400K, up to 411K from a revised = 389K, for the week ending 10/12. Expectations were for only 398K new = claims. Prior week was revised up. Four week moving average remains over = 400K. Housing starts also surged in September, up 13.3% to an annual rate of = 1.84 million units and the highest level in 16 years. Expected was a = rate of 1.64 million units. This had dropped 1.5% in August. All the = growth came in single family homes, up 18.2%. Multi-family construction = dropped 4.4% as low mortgage rates make it easier for people to buy a = home rather than rent. Equally strong was Building permits, up 3.7% to = an annual rate of 1.73 million units (fell 2.7% in August). Expectations = had been flat for a rate of 1.67 million units. So home builders, at = least, don't think the boom is over just yet. Mortgage rates rose last = week, but still remained well below year ago rates by about half a = point. US Industrial Output fell in September for the second consecutive month, = may not be a trend just yet, but certainly a warning sign of further = slowing in economic recovery. The rate dropped 0.1% after a fall of 0.3% = in August, expectation was for a rise of 0.1%. The largest factor in = this report is manufacturing, which was down another 0.3% after losing = 0.2% in August. Capacity utilization was down as well to 75.9% from = 76.0%, further demonstrating contraction. Reasons cited included effects = of tropical storms on the oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico, however = production at car/auto parts plants was down 1.6%, second monthly = decline. Combine that with other data, including financial downgrades of = most major car manufacturers because of all the zero percent sales and = underfunding of pension plans, and the auto industry begins to look = extremely weak. This has been a big factor in both sustaining the = economy, as well as helping it recover, but may be coming to an end. Despite a 0.7% spike in energy costs reflecting the Iraqi war premium, = overall CPI only rose 0.2% for September, in line with expectations. The = core rate was up 0.1%. So far this year, core inflation rose at a per = annum rate of 2.1% and well under the 2.8% rate of 2001. US Trade Deficit spiked to a new record in August, up 9.7% to $38.5 = billion, on the back of increasing imports and declining exports. The = anticipation of closure of the West Coast ports likely contributed to = the rise in imports by accelerated shipping activity. But weakness in = exports was broad based, including autos and auto parts (down 4%), = consumer goods, and capital goods. Industrial supplies including = chemicals and plastics defied the trend and rose 0.5%. The largest trade = deficit with a single country remained with China.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" In what may prove to be one further signal of a bottom being reached, = the yield on Treasuries spiked over half a percent as prices fell last = week due to investors moving money from bonds to stocks. More than $14 = billion is estimated to have entered the bond market during September = just as prices were hitting their highs (and stock markets were = approaching their lows). Another $13 billion may have entered already = during October, or during the rest of this month. Talk about a double = whammy, flee risk for safety, and lose more while where you left is = recovering!! Last week managed a very respectable 5-6% gain on every = major stock index, second positive week in a row. Gold continues its = decline. Europe rallied nicely, as did Asia. Volume was pretty average = on Friday, but well over average on both Tuesday and Thursday, both = strong up days. Russell 2000 was the exception, good volume Tuesday but = lackluster the rest of the week. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Mixed signals on the seriousness of cleaning up the bad loans problem = surfaced during the week, as a govt backed second bailout this year of = their largest supermarket chain (Daiei Inc., a major employer) emerged = (so much for the "no company is too big to fail" statements). While = claims continue that the bad loans volume will be cut in half by = 2004/2005, current govt estimates still put it at $346-$318 billion = representing 10% of Japan's GDP. And ratings agencies, among others, = actually estimate it is as high as $1.2 trillion, which is bigger than = Canada's entire economy. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend grew throughout the = week. AZO - b/o continues BLUD - LLUR CECO - LLUR CENT - very nice c&h COCO - LLUR HCA - cup formed, watch for the handle HDI - handle may be forming, strong fundies IGT - rough c&h, and Christmas is coming MBFI - B9 PORT - B12 ROST - double bottom, breaking pivot UOPX - nice cup at least, and maybe a handle as well WLP - nice cup Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0027_01C27759.069AD400 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Inventories fell an unexpected 0.1% in August at = all=20 levels (retail, wholesale, manufacturing) including a 0.5% drop in autos = and=20 parts. This is before any effect from the closure of West Coast ports.=20 Inventories were up 0.4% in July, and had been expected to increase by = 0.1%, so=20 combined with evidence of slowing consumer spending, suggests a small = reduction=20 in business activity. Sales grew by 0.2% after rising 1.3% in = July.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New jobless claims surged back over 400K, up to = 411K from=20 a revised 389K, for the week ending 10/12. Expectations were for only = 398K new=20 claims. Prior week was revised up. Four week moving average remains over = 400K.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts also surged in September, up = 13.3% to an=20 annual rate of 1.84 million units and the highest level in 16 years. = Expected=20 was a rate of 1.64 million units. This had dropped 1.5% in August. All = the=20 growth came in single family homes, up 18.2%. Multi-family construction = dropped=20 4.4% as low mortgage rates make it easier for people to buy a home = rather than=20 rent. Equally strong was Building permits, up 3.7% to an annual rate of = 1.73=20 million units (fell 2.7% in August). Expectations had been flat for a = rate of=20 1.67 million units. So home builders, at least, don't think the boom is = over=20 just yet. Mortgage rates rose last week, but still remained well below = year ago=20 rates by about half a point.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US Industrial Output fell in September for the = second=20 consecutive month, may not be a trend just yet, but certainly a warning = sign of=20 further slowing in economic recovery. The rate dropped 0.1% after a fall = of 0.3%=20 in August, expectation was for a rise of 0.1%. The largest factor in = this report=20 is manufacturing, which was down another 0.3% after losing 0.2% in = August.=20 Capacity utilization was down as well to 75.9% from 76.0%, further = demonstrating=20 contraction. Reasons cited included effects of tropical storms on the = oil=20 industry in the Gulf of Mexico, however production at car/auto parts = plants was=20 down 1.6%, second monthly decline. Combine that with other data, = including=20 financial downgrades of most major car manufacturers because of all the = zero=20 percent sales and underfunding of pension plans, and the auto industry = begins to=20 look extremely weak. This has been a big factor in both sustaining the = economy,=20 as well as helping it recover, but may be coming to an end.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Despite a 0.7% spike in energy costs reflecting = the Iraqi=20 war premium, overall CPI only rose 0.2% for September, in line with=20 expectations. The core rate was up 0.1%. So far this year, core = inflation rose=20 at a per annum rate of 2.1% and well under the 2.8% rate of = 2001.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US Trade Deficit spiked to a new record in = August, up 9.7%=20 to $38.5 billion, on the back of increasing imports and declining = exports. The=20 anticipation of closure of the West Coast ports likely contributed = to the=20 rise in imports by accelerated shipping activity. But weakness in = exports was=20 broad based, including autos and auto parts (down 4%), consumer goods, = and=20 capital goods. Industrial supplies including chemicals and plastics = defied the=20 trend and rose 0.5%. The largest trade deficit with a single country = remained=20 with China.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In what may prove to be one further signal of a = bottom=20 being reached, the yield on Treasuries spiked over half a percent as = prices fell=20 last week due to investors moving money from bonds to stocks. More = than $14=20 billion is estimated to have entered the bond market during September = just as=20 prices were hitting their highs (and stock markets were approaching = their lows).=20 Another $13 billion may have entered already during October, or during = the rest=20 of this month. Talk about a double whammy, flee risk for safety, and = lose more=20 while where you left is recovering!! Last week managed a very = respectable 5-6%=20 gain on every major stock index, second positive week in a row. Gold = continues=20 its decline. Europe rallied nicely, as did Asia. Volume was pretty = average on=20 Friday, but well over average on both Tuesday and Thursday, both strong = up days.=20 Russell 2000 was the exception, good volume Tuesday but lackluster the = rest of=20 the week.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Mixed signals on the seriousness of cleaning up the bad loans = problem=20 surfaced during the week, as a govt backed second bailout this year of = their=20 largest supermarket chain (Daiei Inc., a major employer) emerged (so = much for=20 the "no company is too big to fail" statements). While claims continue = that the=20 bad loans volume will be cut in half by 2004/2005, current govt = estimates still=20 put it at $346-$318 billion representing 10% of Japan's GDP. And ratings = agencies, among others, actually estimate it is as high as $1.2 = trillion, which=20 is bigger than Canada's entire economy. <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend grew=20 throughout the week.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AZO - b/o continues</DIV> <DIV>BLUD - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CECO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CENT - very nice c&h</DIV> <DIV>COCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HCA - cup formed, watch for the handle</DIV> <DIV>HDI - handle may be forming, strong fundies</DIV> <DIV>IGT - rough c&h, and Christmas is coming</DIV> <DIV>MBFI - B9</DIV> <DIV>PORT - B12</DIV> <DIV>ROST - double bottom, breaking pivot</DIV> <DIV>UOPX - nice cup at least, and maybe a handle as well</DIV> <DIV>WLP - nice cup</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:002501c2777a$8da2fe20$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0027_01C27759.069AD400-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C27759.069AD400 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <002501c2777a$8da2fe20$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ MwCZZgCZmQCZzACZ/zOZADOZMzOZZjOZmTOZzDOZ/2aZAGaZM2aZZmaZmWaZzGaZ/5mZAJmZM5mZ 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