RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies

From: "Lin Wells" <linwells1@charter.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 11:52:01 -0500
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I think that NUTR fits with this concept

 

Lin

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Duke Miller
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:16 AM
To: CANSLIM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies

 

The Boomer Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was so
poorly received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again!  I'm
not hurt, I promise.  I've never been known to run with the crowd, more
often than not taking Frost's road less traveled.   

 

However, dear friends, I have been doing some analysis on the list that
now contains 84 stocks, and  I've discovered and interesting lack of
correlation.  Interesting to me, at any rate.  I'll explain:

 

The weekend of October 9, I created a Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio
using the closing price on October 8 as the basis for each stock.  As of
yesterday's close, this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if
you'd purchased 100 shares of each.  No great shakes.   

 

I thought it would be interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the
dates any of the stocks appear on IBD's Screen of the Day.  At risk of
eliciting a "duh", the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature
the better performing stocks to watch.  At least that's what WON often
suggests.  Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I found:


 

Out of the 84 stocks on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at
least one SOD appearance since 10/3.  (The most is 7 appearances by a
total of five of the stocks.)

 

Sorting the list based on the number of appearances by each stock
revealed stocks that appeared more than five times increased an average
of 5.5%; those appearing one to four times rose less than half that at
an average of 2.3%.   As for the five that have appeared seven times,
they're up a little over 8%.

 

But what of the 56 stocks not appearing on a SOD since October 3?  Holy
assumption, Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!!  In other words,
none of these stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders to
Total Composite Ratings.

 

What does all this prove?  

 

It tells me the Boomer Babies list is producing the kind of prospects
I'm interested in:  Solid companies across a broad range of industries
that stand to profit from the aging and eventual retirement of boomers.
(The "solid" is derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates
were culled from nine months of New America features.  A plus for IBD,
the publication.)

 

However, a) It has prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading every
SOD for future study; b) I intend to follow the progress of each stock
with CANSLIM on my mind, but not obsessively so; c) It has raised a
level in cynicism regarding devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts,
etc.  Those narratives are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory
at best).  Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my
observation(s).  It just seems every time a breakout fails, they can
spot the reason, in hindsight, of course.  Same theme, different day.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Duke  

 

PS: It was my intent to post the results of my survey as described
above, citing the specific stocks.  But, alas, as some of you know, I
received a certified wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a
SOD analysis back in July.  Heaven forbid a further possible suspected
violation of IBD's proprietary blah, blah, blah...

 

 

 


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10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I think that NUTR fits with this =
concept</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Lin</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 =
face=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original =
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <b><span
style=3D'font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Duke Miller<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, October =
24, 2002
11:16 AM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> CANSLIM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] Boomer =
Babies</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The Boomer =
Babies&nbsp;concept that
that I passed on several weeks ago was so poorly received by this group =
that I
hesitate to bring it up again!&nbsp; I'm not hurt, I =
promise.&nbsp;&nbsp;I've
never been known to run with the crowd, more often than not taking =
Frost's road
less traveled.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>However, dear friends, I =
have been
doing some analysis on the list that now contains 84 stocks, and&nbsp; =
I've
discovered and interesting <em><i><font face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:
Arial'>lack</span></font></i></em> of correlation.&nbsp; Interesting to =
me, at
any rate.&nbsp; I'll explain:</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The weekend of October 9, I =
created
a Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio using the&nbsp;closing price
on&nbsp;October 8 as the basis for each stock.&nbsp; As of yesterday's =
close,
this whole group&nbsp;is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if you'd =
purchased 100
shares of each.&nbsp; No great shakes.&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>I thought it would be =
interesting to
indicate on my spreadsheet&nbsp;the dates any of the stocks appear on =
IBD's
Screen of the Day.&nbsp;&nbsp;At risk of eliciting a &quot;duh&quot;, =
the <em><i><font
face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>assumption&nbsp;</span></font></i></em>is
the SODs more than likely feature the better performing&nbsp;stocks to
watch.&nbsp; At least that's what WON often suggests.&nbsp; Going back =
to
October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I found:&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Out of the&nbsp;84 stocks =
on the
Boomer Babies&nbsp;list, 38 (45%)&nbsp;have made at least one SOD =
appearance
since 10/3.&nbsp; (The most is 7 appearances by&nbsp;a total of five of =
the
stocks.)</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sorting the list based on =
the number
of appearances by each stock&nbsp;revealed stocks that appeared more =
than five
times increased an average of 5.5%; those appearing one to four times =
rose less
than half that at an average of 2.3%.&nbsp;&nbsp; As for the five that =
have
appeared seven times, they're up a little over 8%.</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>But what of the 56 stocks =
<em><i><font
face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>not</span></font></i></em> appearing
on a SOD since October 3?&nbsp; Holy assumption, Batman, they're up an =
average
of 9.3%!!&nbsp; In other words, none of these stocks appeared in screens
ranging from ROE leaders to Total Composite Ratings.</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>What does all this =
prove?&nbsp; </span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>It tells me the Boomer =
Babies list
is producing the kind of prospects I'm interested in:&nbsp; Solid =
companies
across a broad&nbsp;range of industries that stand to profit from the =
aging and
eventual retirement&nbsp;of boomers.&nbsp; (The &quot;solid&quot; is =
derived
from, I think, the fact that all the candidates were culled from nine =
months of
New America features.&nbsp; A plus for IBD, the =
publication.)</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>However, a) It has prompted =
me to
consider ceasing the downloading every SOD for future study; b) I intend =
to
follow the progress of each stock&nbsp;with CANSLIM on my mind, but not
obsessively so; c)&nbsp;It has raised a level in cynicism regarding =
devotion to
analysis of bases, breakouts, etc.&nbsp;&nbsp;Those narratives =
are&nbsp;somewhat&nbsp;befuddling
and often contradictory&nbsp;at best).&nbsp; Sorry if that seems =
blasphemous,
but that's my observation(s).&nbsp; It just seems every time a breakout =
fails,
they can spot the reason, in hindsight, of course.&nbsp; Same theme, =
different
day.</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Have a great =
weekend.</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Duke&nbsp; =
</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PS: It was my intent to =
post the
results of my survey as described above, citing the specific =
stocks.&nbsp; But,
alas, as some of you know, I received a certified wrist-spanking from =
IBD's SS
troops&nbsp;after posting a SOD analysis back in July.&nbsp; Heaven =
forbid a
further possible suspected violation of IBD's proprietary blah, blah, =
blah...</span></font></p>

</div>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
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style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

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