Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 16:35:29 -0400
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I'll check it out. Thanks.
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Lin Wells
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 12:52 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
I think that NUTR fits with this concept
Lin
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Duke Miller
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:16 AM
To: CANSLIM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
The Boomer Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was so
poorly received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again! I'm
not hurt, I promise. I've never been known to run with the crowd, more
often than not taking Frost's road less traveled.
However, dear friends, I have been doing some analysis on the list that
now contains 84 stocks, and I've discovered and interesting lack of
correlation. Interesting to me, at any rate. I'll explain:
The weekend of October 9, I created a Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio
using the closing price on October 8 as the basis for each stock. As of
yesterday's close, this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if
you'd purchased 100 shares of each. No great shakes.
I thought it would be interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the
dates any of the stocks appear on IBD's Screen of the Day. At risk of
eliciting a "duh", the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature
the better performing stocks to watch. At least that's what WON often
suggests. Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I found:
Out of the 84 stocks on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at
least one SOD appearance since 10/3. (The most is 7 appearances by a
total of five of the stocks.)
Sorting the list based on the number of appearances by each stock
revealed stocks that appeared more than five times increased an average
of 5.5%; those appearing one to four times rose less than half that at
an average of 2.3%. As for the five that have appeared seven times,
they're up a little over 8%.
But what of the 56 stocks not appearing on a SOD since October 3? Holy
assumption, Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!! In other words,
none of these stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders to
Total Composite Ratings.
What does all this prove?
It tells me the Boomer Babies list is producing the kind of prospects
I'm interested in: Solid companies across a broad range of industries
that stand to profit from the aging and eventual retirement of boomers.
(The "solid" is derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates
were culled from nine months of New America features. A plus for IBD,
the publication.)
However, a) It has prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading every
SOD for future study; b) I intend to follow the progress of each stock
with CANSLIM on my mind, but not obsessively so; c) It has raised a
level in cynicism regarding devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts,
etc. Those narratives are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory
at best). Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my
observation(s). It just seems every time a breakout fails, they can
spot the reason, in hindsight, of course. Same theme, different day.
Have a great weekend.
Duke
PS: It was my intent to post the results of my survey as described
above, citing the specific stocks. But, alas, as some of you know, I
received a certified wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a
SOD analysis back in July. Heaven forbid a further possible suspected
violation of IBD's proprietary blah, blah, blah...
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D185183520-24102002><FONT face=3DArial>I'll check it =
out. =20
Thanks.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D185183520-24102002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D185183520-24102002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Lin Wells<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 24, =
2002 12:52=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Boomer Babies<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"></SPAN></FONT> </P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I think =
that NUTR=20
fits with this concept</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"></SPAN></FONT> </P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Lin</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Duke=20
Miller<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Thursday,=20
October 24, 2002 11:16 AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
CANSLIM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> =
[CANSLIM]=20
Boomer Babies</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The Boomer =
Babies concept=20
that that I passed on several weeks ago was so poorly received by this =
group=20
that I hesitate to bring it up again! I'm not hurt, I=20
promise. I've never been known to run with the crowd, more =
often=20
than not taking Frost's road less traveled. =20
</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">However, dear friends, I =
have been=20
doing some analysis on the list that now contains 84 stocks, and =
I've=20
discovered and interesting <EM><I><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial">lack</SPAN></FONT></I></EM> of =
correlation. =20
Interesting to me, at any rate. I'll =
explain:</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The weekend of October =
9, I=20
created a Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio using the closing =
price=20
on October 8 as the basis for each stock. As of yesterday's =
close,=20
this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if you'd =
purchased 100=20
shares of each. No great shakes. =
</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I thought it would be =
interesting=20
to indicate on my spreadsheet the dates any of the stocks appear =
on IBD's=20
Screen of the Day. At risk of eliciting a "duh", the =
<EM><I><FONT=20
face=3DArial><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial">assumption </SPAN></FONT></I></EM>is =
the SODs=20
more than likely feature the better performing stocks to =
watch. At=20
least that's what WON often suggests. Going back to October =
3rd's SOD=20
and working forward, I found: </SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Out of the 84 =
stocks on the=20
Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at least one SOD =
appearance=20
since 10/3. (The most is 7 appearances by a total of five =
of the=20
stocks.)</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sorting the list based =
on the=20
number of appearances by each stock revealed stocks that appeared =
more=20
than five times increased an average of 5.5%; those appearing one to =
four=20
times rose less than half that at an average of 2.3%. As =
for the=20
five that have appeared seven times, they're up a little over=20
8%.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">But what of the 56 =
stocks=20
<EM><I><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial">not</SPAN></FONT></I></EM> appearing on a =
SOD since=20
October 3? Holy assumption, Batman, they're up an average of=20
9.3%!! In other words, none of these stocks appeared in screens =
ranging=20
from ROE leaders to Total Composite Ratings.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">What does all this =
prove? =20
</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">It tells me the Boomer =
Babies list=20
is producing the kind of prospects I'm interested in: Solid =
companies=20
across a broad range of industries that stand to profit from the =
aging=20
and eventual retirement of boomers. (The "solid" is derived =
from, I=20
think, the fact that all the candidates were culled from nine months =
of New=20
America features. A plus for IBD, the=20
publication.)</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">However, a) It has =
prompted me to=20
consider ceasing the downloading every SOD for future study; b) I =
intend to=20
follow the progress of each stock with CANSLIM on my mind, but =
not=20
obsessively so; c) It has raised a level in cynicism regarding =
devotion=20
to analysis of bases, breakouts, etc. Those narratives=20
are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory at =
best). =20
Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my observation(s). =
It just=20
seems every time a breakout fails, they can spot the reason, in =
hindsight, of=20
course. Same theme, different day.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Have a great=20
weekend.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Duke =20
</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">PS: It was my intent to =
post the=20
results of my survey as described above, citing the specific =
stocks. =20
But, alas, as some of you know, I received a certified wrist-spanking =
from=20
IBD's SS troops after posting a SOD analysis back in July. =
Heaven=20
forbid a further possible suspected violation of IBD's proprietary =
blah, blah,=20
blah...</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"></SPAN></FONT> </P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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