Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:56:42 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80" - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS The Conference Board reported that its index of Leading Economic = Indicators fell 0.2% in September, fourth month in a row to decline = (three months in a row is a warning of possible recession). This index = attempts to predict economic activity six months out (thus thru 1st qtr = 2003). Biggest factors were declining stock prices, rising unemployment = claims, and declining orders for capital goods. The coincident index, = which measures current activity, held steady. The only good news was = that the declines originally reported for July and August were cut in = half with revisions. The damage to the economy from the closing of the West Coast ports = continues, although probably at a slower rate. Two weeks after the = courts ordered the ports to reopen, and the Longshoremen to resume = working, there are still over 200 ships at anchor waiting to unload, = just about the same number as when the ports reopened. The Pacific = Maritime Assn is complaining to the courts that the union is conducting = a deliberate slowdown, sending insufficient number of workers, or = untrained workers, or calling in sick. The Union complains that the = docks are chaos because of the lockout, and a dangerous place to work. = Meanwhile, perishable foods are rotting on the docks, retailers worry = about getting products on the shelf in time for Christmas shopping, and = some factories have had to shut down because of a shortage of spare = parts. PMA claims productivity is down 20-25%, labor estimates its only = down by an average of 16%. Mattel is estimated to have $100 million = worth of goods still sitting on the docks or on ships offshore that may = not reach stores in time for the holiday shopping. A week ago, Honda = shut its four N. American assembly plants for two days due lack of = parts. Retail chain store sales rose 1.5% for the first half of October, = compared to the first half of September. Is media data any more accurate or reliable than govt data? You decide. = The ABC News/Money consumer comfort index fell another four points in = the second week of October following a five point drop the first week, = and reaching a level not seen since 1994. This is a telephone poll = survey of about 1,000 adults. The index is now at -23. Over the 877 = weeks of this survey, there have been only 12 occurrences in which it = fell 4 or more points twice in one month. New unemployment claims continue to send confusing signals, down 25K = this latest week, up 25K the week before. The 4 week moving average = remains over 400K at 404K, lowest since August 31. Americans spend about $1.22 for every dollar they earn, while personal = bankruptcy filings have jumped 44% since 1992. Most of the difference is = presumably made up of profits from the stock market or gains in home = equity thru refinancing. Durable goods orders were down a sharp 5.9% in September (keep in mind = this is stale data), biggest decline in 10 months. This is the third = decline in four months (June down 4.5%, July up 8.5%, August down 0.6%). = Most everything was affected, but the biggest were communications = equipment (down 52%) and commercial airplanes (down 46%). The core rate, = excluding transportation related orders, was still down 1%. Even defense = equipment orders fell by 4%. Univ. of Michigan's October consumer sentiment index fell below = expectations, down to 80.6 from 86.1 in September. Expected was a drop = to 81.1. Principal factor was the expectations component, which looks = ahead 12 months, which dropped to 73.1 from 79.9. Current conditions = component fell to a nine year low of 92.4 from 95.8, and gives some = indications of current spending attitudes. Existing home sales rose 1.9% in September from the revised August rate, = and slightly ahead of expectations. New home sales also rose, by 0.4%, = and also ahead of expectations. Year over year, the median prices = remained strong, up 7.9% and 5.9% respectively. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" While the past week managed to make it three in a row of gains, it = appears that the right leg rally of the double bottom's "W" may be = stalling out just over (in most cases) or just under the 50 dma. The = Russell 2000 has not quite broken thru the 50, and the DJ Utilities = Index lags far below it. Volume has been boring, even anemic at times, = much like the economy. The number of new stocks hitting 12 month highs = has been growing, and the Q3 earnings so far does not seem to have been = quite as dismal as many expected. Only time will tell if we are in a = bull rally and soon will return to the bear trend and even lower prices, = or if this double bottom rally is sustainable. I have yet to return to = my normal bullish attitude, altho some of that may just be work related. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN The long awaited, delayed and postponed banking reform plans desperately = needed to rescue the Japanese economy continue to run into the brick = wall of old guard politics, who oppose change and prefer to continue = sliding into the basement one step at a time, romantically hoping / = wishing for world economic recovery to finally take place and drag their = export based economy into the 21st century. Hopes that Takenaka's final = plan will not be so harsh, will protect the biggest banks and = businesses, and will be accompanied by a "safety net" to offset the = effects of even steeper deflation, bankruptcy and higher unemployment, = encouraged the Japanese markets this past week. But that still remains = an illusion, and years of economic pain could still lie ahead no matter = how this pans out. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is slowly growing, = but still not sizable by any stretch of the imagination. ACVA - c&h, kinda AFL - another kinda c&h, steady grower but not spectacular, but I love = the duck AMSG - consolidating ANSI - long saucer with volatile handle, doesn't know where it wants to = go APPX - cup, profit taking? AZO - high handle trying to form CHD - c&h CHS - c&h COCO - LLUR turning into a flat base (B8) DELL - long consolidation DLX - nearly two year LLUR that has now formed decent c&h ESPD - broke the pivot on 3.5X volume Friday, already nearly $2 over the = handle GDW - double bottom HCA - c&h HDI - c&h KSWS - broke pivot on Friday PCLE - nice c&h RKY - c&h Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Conference Board reported that its index of = Leading=20 Economic Indicators fell 0.2% in September, fourth month in a row to = decline=20 (three months in a row is a warning of possible recession). This index = attempts=20 to predict economic activity six months out (thus thru 1st qtr 2003). = Biggest=20 factors were declining stock prices, rising unemployment claims, and = declining=20 orders for capital goods. The coincident index, which measures current = activity,=20 held steady. The only good news was that the declines originally = reported for=20 July and August were cut in half with revisions.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The damage to the economy from the closing of = the West=20 Coast ports continues, although probably at a slower rate. Two weeks = after the=20 courts ordered the ports to reopen, and the Longshoremen to resume = working,=20 there are still over 200 ships at anchor waiting to unload, just about = the same=20 number as when the ports reopened. The Pacific Maritime = Assn is=20 complaining to the courts that the union is conducting a deliberate = slowdown,=20 sending insufficient number of workers, or untrained workers, or calling = in=20 sick. The Union complains that the docks are chaos because of the = lockout, and a=20 dangerous place to work. Meanwhile, perishable foods are rotting on the = docks,=20 retailers worry about getting products on the shelf in time for = Christmas=20 shopping, and some factories have had to shut down because of a shortage = of=20 spare parts. PMA claims productivity is down 20-25%, labor estimates its = only=20 down by an average of 16%. Mattel is estimated to have $100 million = worth of=20 goods still sitting on the docks or on ships offshore that may not reach = stores=20 in time for the holiday shopping. A week ago, Honda shut its four = N.=20 American assembly plants for two days due lack of parts.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Retail chain store sales rose 1.5% for the first = half of=20 October, compared to the first half of September.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Is media data any more accurate or reliable than = govt=20 data? You decide. The ABC News/Money consumer comfort index fell another = four=20 points in the second week of October following a five point drop the = first week,=20 and reaching a level not seen since 1994. This is a telephone poll = survey of=20 about 1,000 adults. The index is now at -23. Over the 877 weeks of this = survey,=20 there have been only 12 occurrences in which it fell 4 or more points = twice in=20 one month.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims continue to send = confusing=20 signals, down 25K this latest week, up 25K the week before. The 4 week = moving=20 average remains over 400K at 404K, lowest since August 31.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Americans spend about $1.22 for every dollar = they earn,=20 while personal bankruptcy filings have jumped 44% since 1992. Most of = the=20 difference is presumably made up of profits from the stock market or = gains in=20 home equity thru refinancing.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders were down a sharp 5.9% in = September=20 (keep in mind this is stale data), biggest decline in 10 months. This is = the=20 third decline in four months (June down 4.5%, July up 8.5%, August down = 0.6%).=20 Most everything was affected, but the biggest were communications = equipment=20 (down 52%) and commercial airplanes (down 46%). The core rate, excluding = transportation related orders, was still down 1%. Even defense equipment = orders=20 fell by 4%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan's October consumer sentiment = index fell=20 below expectations, down to 80.6 from 86.1 in September. Expected was a = drop to=20 81.1. Principal factor was the expectations component, which looks ahead = 12=20 months, which dropped to 73.1 from 79.9. Current conditions component = fell to a=20 nine year low of 92.4 from 95.8, and gives some indications of current = spending=20 attitudes.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Existing home sales rose 1.9% in September from = the=20 revised August rate, and slightly ahead of expectations. New home sales = also=20 rose, by 0.4%, and also ahead of expectations. Year over year, the = median prices=20 remained strong, up 7.9% and 5.9% respectively. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While the past week managed to make it three in = a row of=20 gains, it appears that the right leg rally of the double bottom's "W" = may be=20 stalling out just over (in most cases) or just under the 50 dma. The = Russell=20 2000 has not quite broken thru the 50, and the DJ Utilities Index lags = far below=20 it. Volume has been boring, even anemic at times, much like the economy. = The=20 number of new stocks hitting 12 month highs has been growing, and the Q3 = earnings so far does not seem to have been quite as dismal as many = expected.=20 Only time will tell if we are in a bull rally and soon will return to = the bear=20 trend and even lower prices, or if this double bottom rally is = sustainable. I=20 have yet to return to my normal bullish attitude, altho some of that may = just be=20 work related. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The long awaited, delayed and postponed banking = reform=20 plans desperately needed to rescue the Japanese economy continue to run = into the=20 brick wall of old guard politics, who oppose change and prefer to = continue=20 sliding into the basement one step at a time, romantically hoping / = wishing for=20 world economic recovery to finally take place and drag their export = based=20 economy into the 21st century. Hopes that Takenaka's final plan = will not=20 be so harsh, will protect the biggest banks and businesses, and will be=20 accompanied by a "safety net" to offset the effects of even steeper = deflation,=20 bankruptcy and higher unemployment, encouraged the Japanese markets this = past=20 week. But that still remains an illusion, and years of economic pain = could still=20 lie ahead no matter how this pans out. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</FONT></STRONG>=20 <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 slowly growing, but still not sizable by any stretch of the=20 imagination.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACVA - c&h, kinda</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AFL - another kinda c&h, steady grower but = not=20 spectacular, but I love the duck</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AMSG - consolidating</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ANSI - long saucer with volatile handle, doesn't = know=20 where it wants to go</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APPX - cup, profit taking?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AZO - high handle trying to form</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHD - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHS - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COCO - LLUR turning into a flat base = (B8)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DELL - long consolidation</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - nearly two year LLUR that has now formed = decent=20 c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ESPD - broke the pivot on 3.5X volume Friday, = already=20 nearly $2 over the handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GDW - double bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HCA - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HDI - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>KSWS - broke pivot on Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PCLE - nice c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RKY - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, and good luck</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:006001c27d10$a8b41c80$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <006001c27d10$a8b41c80$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ MwCZZgCZmQCZzACZ/zOZADOZMzOZZjOZmTOZzDOZ/2aZAGaZM2aZZmaZmWaZzGaZ/5mZAJmZM5mZ 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