Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] OT 6
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:22:29 -0800 (PST)
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- --0-580590587-1035912149=:90517 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com> wrote:Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 14:29:17 -0700 (PDT) From: Eric Jaenike Subject: Distribution Well, looks like we're chalking up yet another distribution day. This time, however, selling was more pronounced, as the indices really took it on the chin and volume picked up significantly. For those keeping score at home, that's the second distribution day we've seen in the past three trading sessions. That is bad. Stocks getting hit today: MME, CVH, WLP (HMOs); PETM (retail); CTMI, ZMH, STE (medical products), UHS, HCA (for profit hospitals), ELAB, FRX (drug makers). These are stocks in leading groups, who have the potential to lead the market in a new rally. (I am tracking a total of 27). This rally has really looked abysmal, and has all the feel of a rally that will eventually fail. First we get oversold, then we rally on news, but the price volume action is poor. The wrong stocks- really, the worst offenders in the market (largely tech)- lead the percentage gainers, which is a clear indication of short covering. The stocks you want to see moving, which are the potential new leaders, are few and far between, and rise tepidly. And finally, the really ugly stocks- the Lucents, Nortels, Redbacks, Sonus Networks- started rallying today, which frequently marks the end of a rally, at least on a near term basis. I have seen this movie before, and it always ends badly. The only question is when, not if. I will continue to watch the action closely, and try to find the proper short entry points. This is a particulary difficult time, because of seasonality and the rapidity of the rise. One final note: the Nasdaq 100 is still trading at 57.5 times estimated 2002 earnings, and those earnings are probably optimistic. The adventure continues. Eric - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Y! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your web site - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search new jobs daily now - --0-580590587-1035912149=:90517 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii <P> <P> <B><I>Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 14:29:17 -0700 (PDT)<BR>From: Eric Jaenike <ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM><BR>Subject: Distribution<BR><BR> <P>Well, looks like we're chalking up yet another distribution day. This time, however, selling was more pronounced, as the indices really took it on the chin and volume picked up significantly. For those keeping score at home, that's the second distribution day we've seen in the past three trading sessions. That is bad.</P> <P>Stocks getting hit today: MME, CVH, WLP (HMOs); PETM (retail); CTMI, ZMH, STE (medical products), UHS, HCA (for profit hospitals), ELAB, FRX (drug makers). These are stocks in leading groups, who have the potential to lead the market in a new rally. (I am tracking a total of 27). </P> <P>This rally has really looked abysmal, and has all the feel of a rally that will eventually fail. First we get oversold, then we rally on news, but the price volume action is poor. The wrong stocks- really, the worst offenders in the market (largely tech)- lead the percentage gainers, which is a clear indication of short covering. The stocks you want to see moving, which are the potential new leaders, are few and far between, and rise tepidly. And finally, the really ugly stocks- the Lucents, Nortels, Redbacks, Sonus Networks- started rallying today, which frequently marks the end of a rally, at least on a near term basis.</P> <P>I have seen this movie before, and it always ends badly. The only question is when, not if. I will continue to watch the action closely, and try to find the proper short entry points. This is a particulary difficult time, because of seasonality and the rapidity of the rise. </P> <P>One final note: the Nasdaq 100 is still trading at 57.5 times estimated 2002 earnings, and those earnings are probably optimistic.</P> <P>The adventure continues.</P> <P>Eric</P> <P><BR> <HR SIZE=1> Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://webhosting.yahoo.com/">Y! Web Hosting</A> - Let the expert host your web site</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br> <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com ">HotJobs</a> - Search new jobs daily now - --0-580590587-1035912149=:90517-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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