Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] OT 5
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:21:33 -0800 (PST)
Next Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] OT 6 Eric Jaenike
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] OT 4 Eric Jaenike
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
- --0-1488357260-1035912093=:80429 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com> wrote:Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:01:34 -0700 (PDT) From: Eric Jaenike Subject: Bull and bear Just a quick note today. Rally continued today, with volume continuing to look extremely poor. More flags. I want to be quite clear on my position here. I think this rally is in trouble, but I don't think it is shortable just yet. This is an extremely tricky period. On the one hand, we have deteriorating fundamentals (see below), especially in tech, and a shaky technical backdrop. On the other, we have end of year hijinx that are helping prop up this market, especially by the knucklehead mutual funds (don't even get me started on those idiots). Normally, I would be absolutely railing against this rally, as it is just about the worst I have seen ever, and would be pounding the table, screaming it is going to fail badly. But we have that other hand to deal with, which is propping up the market and making shorting a very dangerous proposition. I am convinced that at some point we will see new lows, and they will be ugly. Its the timing that is even more difficult than usual, however. Time to be patient, and play small. On the tech front, I want to highlight a few things from last night's Cymer call. Cymer is a company that makes excimer lasers for photolithography in the semiconductor industry. It has 90% market share, and so has a broad view into the industry. The CEO stated: "The semiconductor industry has apparently entered the second decline of a double-dip downturn, which will have a negative impact on our fourth-quarter operating results. Late in the third quarter and in the first few weeks of the fourth quarter, capacity-driven lithography tool purchases have been significantly pushed out or canceled, because chipmakers believe their existing factor capacity is sufficient to meet projected short-term market demand." Recall, Taiwan Semiconductor stated it would be running at less than 50% of capacity by year end, and would definitely not increase its budget for capex next year. So on the back of this and KLA Tencor's abysmal earnings call last night, what happened to KLA Tencor's stock (KLAC)? It closed the day UP 7%. And recall, KLAC is an expensive stock on a valuation basis. I point this out as a microcosm of the current environment. Be very careful out there. This is as tricky an environment as I've seen. Eric - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Y! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your web site - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search new jobs daily now - --0-1488357260-1035912093=:80429 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii <P> <P> <B><I>Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:01:34 -0700 (PDT)<BR>From: Eric Jaenike <ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM><BR>Subject: Bull and bear<BR><BR><BR> <P>Just a quick note today. Rally continued today, with volume continuing to look extremely poor. More flags.</P> <P>I want to be quite clear on my position here. I think this rally is in trouble, but I don't think it is shortable just yet. This is an extremely tricky period. On the one hand, we have deteriorating fundamentals (see below), especially in tech, and a shaky technical backdrop. On the other, we have end of year hijinx that are helping prop up this market, especially by the knucklehead mutual funds (don't even get me started on those idiots). Normally, I would be absolutely railing against this rally, as it is just about the worst I have seen ever, and would be pounding the table, screaming it is going to fail badly. But we have that other hand to deal with, which is propping up the market and making shorting a very dangerous proposition. I am convinced that at some point we will see new lows, and they will be ugly. Its the timing that is even more difficult than usual, however. Time to be patient, and play small.</P> <P>On the tech front, I want to highlight a few things from last night's Cymer call. Cymer is a company that makes excimer lasers for photolithography in the semiconductor industry. It has 90% market share, and so has a broad view into the industry. The CEO stated:</P> <P>"The semiconductor industry has apparently entered the second decline of a <I>double-dip downturn</I>, which will have a negative impact on our fourth-quarter operating results. Late in the third quarter <I>and</I> in the first few weeks of the fourth quarter, capacity-driven lithography tool purchases have been significantly pushed out or canceled, because chipmakers believe their existing factor capacity is <I>sufficient</I> to meet projected short-term market demand."</P> <P>Recall, Taiwan Semiconductor stated it would be running at less than 50% of capacity by year end, and would definitely not increase its budget for capex next year.</P> <P>So on the back of this and KLA Tencor's abysmal earnings call last night, what happened to KLA Tencor's stock (KLAC)? It closed the day UP 7%. And recall, KLAC is an expensive stock on a valuation basis.</P> <P>I point this out as a microcosm of the current environment. Be very careful out there. This is as tricky an environment as I've seen.</P> <P>Eric</P> <P><BR> <HR SIZE=1> Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://webhosting.yahoo.com/">Y! Web Hosting</A> - Let the expert host your web site</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br> <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com ">HotJobs</a> - Search new jobs daily now - --0-1488357260-1035912093=:80429-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] OT 6 Eric Jaenike
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] OT 4 Eric Jaenike
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]