Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Gene Ricci <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OT 8
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:57:12 -0600
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Eric, what have I missed? I've received a bunch of email with a subject =
of OT in it.... is there an introduction for them.
Thanks,
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Eric Jaenike=20
To: canslim group=20
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 11:29 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] OT 8
=20
Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com> wrote:=20
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:09:25 -0800 (PST)
From: Eric Jaenike=20
Subject: More shtuff
To: Anurag , Dale Dumaw ,
Chris Jaenike , Eric Jaenike ,
William Jaenike ,
Vitaliy Katsenelson ,
Trish McNamara ,
Sean Mullett , Fritz Reichardt=20
Couple of other quick data points, and a few insights. CHTR, one of =
the semiconductor industry's top 3 manufacturers, announced Thurs night =
that capacity utilization was down to a stunning 39%. I almost fell over =
when I saw that. Worse than even I thought possible, and I know that =
TSCM is going to 50% utilization by the end of the year. Insight =
Enterprises (NSIT), a reseller of computer gear, also lower 4Q rev. and =
earns.
Also of note, of course, were the durable goods orders reported =
Friday a.m.. Notably, nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, were =
down a startling 6.6%. While the number is very volatile, it is yet =
another disconcerting data point. Of course, since this rally has =
nothing to do with the fundamentals, the markets closed up on the day =
(and do I need to point out that tech led the way? Probably not.)
I also want to point out something about this recent reporting =
period. I don't have as much hard data as I'd like (if someone does, =
please forward it to me), but as I understand it, earnings have come in =
kinda/sorta OK relative to expectations (excluding tech). However, =
revenue growth has been nonexistent. Earnings have been OK because of =
cost cutting. We are done with that benefit, and I think earnings are =
going to be substantially worse going forward. Of note also, of course, =
is that the refinancing benefit has peaked, which bodes ill for consumer =
spending going forward, and thus earnings going forward, especially in =
retail.
MU has rallied 56% in the past 3 weeks, and now trades at a 21 p/e =
on 2004 expectations (2003 loss expected at $.58). Of course, those =
estimates are probably too optimistic. Hmmm, wonder if that play will =
work out in the long run. Great run we're having in the indices though, =
wouldn't you say? Party on, Garth!
Another potential threat comes from credit derivatives. This is =
another topic I'm still working to get my arms around, so if anyone has =
good info, please pass it along. Bond holders generally feel secure =
because they own credit insurance. However, there is serious risk =
associated with that credit insurance, as the underwriters might be =
unable to meet their obligations should a number of things go wrong at =
once. A severe contraction in the credit markets could be extremely =
problematic. (Note how corporate spreads have not tightened during the =
recent run in the equity markets). For more on potential derivates =
problems, look at CI and its implosion Friday.
I think this market is painting a clear picture about what is going =
on. As I said before, its just a question of when, not if.
Happy hunting,
Eric
PS As I write this, KLAC up $1.35 on the day, and has rallied 38% =
since its low in early Oct. Truly pathetic.
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<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Eric, what have I missed? I've =
received a bunch=20
of email with a subject of OT in it.... is there an=20
introduction for them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
Jaenike</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim group</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 =
11:29=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] OT 8</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>=20
<P> <B><I>Eric Jaenike <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">ericjaenike@yahoo.com</A>></I></=
B>=20
wrote:=20
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">Date:=20
Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:09:25 -0800 (PST)<BR>From: Eric Jaenike=20
<ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM><BR>Subject: More shtuff<BR>To: Anurag=20
<ANURAG@LCPARTNERS.COM>, Dale Dumaw <DDUMAW@INDRA.COM>,<BR>Chris =
Jaenike=20
<CJAENIKE@SMRH.COM>, Eric Jaenike =
<ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM>,<BR>William=20
Jaenike <WJAENIKE@AOL.COM>,<BR>Vitaliy Katsenelson=20
<VITALIY.IMA@USA.NET>,<BR>Trish McNamara=20
<TRISH@CHERRYCREEKINVESTMENTADVISORS.COM>,<BR>Sean Mullett=20
<SRMULLETT@EARTHLINK.NET>, Fritz Reichardt <REICHF@AOL.COM><BR><BR>
<P>Couple of other quick data points, and a few insights. CHTR, one =
of the=20
semiconductor industry's top 3 manufacturers, announced Thurs night =
that=20
capacity utilization was down to a stunning 39%. I almost fell over =
when I=20
saw that. Worse than even I thought possible, and I know that TSCM =
is going=20
to 50% utilization by the end of the year. Insight Enterprises =
(NSIT), a=20
reseller of computer gear, also lower 4Q rev. and earns.</P>
<P>Also of note, of course, were the durable goods orders reported =
Friday=20
a.m.. Notably, nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, were =
down a=20
startling 6.6%. While the number is very volatile, it is yet another =
disconcerting data point. Of course, since this rally has nothing to =
do with=20
the fundamentals, the markets closed up on the day (and do I need to =
point=20
out that tech led the way? Probably not.)</P>
<P>I also want to point out something about this recent reporting =
period. I=20
don't have as much hard data as I'd like (if someone does, please =
forward it=20
to me), but as I understand it, earnings have come in kinda/sorta OK =
relative to expectations (excluding tech). However, revenue growth =
has been=20
nonexistent. Earnings have been OK because of cost cutting. We are =
done with=20
that benefit, and I think earnings are going to be substantially =
worse going=20
forward. Of note also, of course, is that the refinancing benefit =
has=20
peaked, which bodes ill for consumer spending going forward, and =
thus=20
earnings going forward, especially in retail.</P>
<P>MU has rallied 56% in the past 3 weeks, and now trades at a 21 =
p/e=20
on 2004 expectations (2003 loss expected at $.58). Of course, =
those=20
estimates are probably too optimistic. Hmmm, wonder if that play =
will work=20
out in the long run. Great run we're having in the indices though, =
wouldn't=20
you say? Party on, Garth!</P>
<P> Another potential threat comes from credit derivatives. =
This is=20
another topic I'm still working to get my arms around, so if =
anyone has=20
good info, please pass it along. Bond holders generally feel =
secure=20
because they own credit insurance. However, there is serious risk =
associated=20
with that credit insurance, as the underwriters might be unable to =
meet=20
their obligations should a number of things go wrong at once. A =
severe=20
contraction in the credit markets could be extremely problematic. =
(Note how=20
corporate spreads have not tightened during the recent run in the =
equity=20
markets). For more on potential derivates problems, look at CI and =
its=20
implosion Friday.</P>
<P>I think this market is painting a clear picture about what is =
going on.=20
As I said before, its just a question of when, not if.</P>
<P>Happy hunting,</P>
<P>Eric</P>
<P>PS As I write this, KLAC up $1.35 on the day, and has rallied 38% =
since=20
its low in early Oct. Truly pathetic.</P>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=3D1>
Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href=3D"http://webhosting.yahoo.com/">Y! Web =
Hosting</A>=20
- Let the expert host your web site</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=3D1>
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