Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OT 8
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 11:34:10 -0800 (PST)
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] OT 8 Gene Ricci
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
- --0-739133463-1035920050=:18264 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I'm not quite sure what you're asking. The first email I wrote re: this topic was a reply to Ed's email, in which he asked about MOVI and whether anyone had drawn conclusions similar to his. In that email, I talked briefly about my current opinions re: leadership, etc., and said I would forward a series of emails with an OT subject line that presented some pieces I had written to another group. I thought those emails might be of some interest to people on this list. The below email you reference is one of those pieces. (note they are in order of composition, from oldest (1) to newest (8)). Hope that answers your question. If not, feel free to email me directly. Eric Gene Ricci <genr@swbell.net> wrote:Eric, what have I missed? I've received a bunch of email with a subject of OT in it.... is there an introduction for them. Thanks,Gene----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim group Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 11:29 AMSubject: [CANSLIM] OT 8 Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com> wrote: Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:09:25 -0800 (PST) From: Eric Jaenike Subject: More shtuff To: Anurag , Dale Dumaw , Chris Jaenike , Eric Jaenike , William Jaenike , Vitaliy Katsenelson , Trish McNamara , Sean Mullett , Fritz Reichardt Couple of other quick data points, and a few insights. CHTR, one of the semiconductor industry's top 3 manufacturers, announced Thurs night that capacity utilization was down to a stunning 39%. I almost fell over when I saw that. Worse than even I thought possible, and I know that TSCM is going to 50% utilization by the end of the year. Insight Enterprises (NSIT), a reseller of computer gear, also lower 4Q rev. and earns. Also of note, of course, were the durable goods orders reported Friday a.m.. Notably, nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, were down a startling 6.6%. While the number is very volatile, it is yet another disconcerting data point. Of course, since this rally has nothing to do with the fundamentals, the markets closed up on the day (and do I need to point out that tech led the way? Probably not.) I also want to point out something about this recent reporting period. I don't have as much hard data as I'd like (if someone does, please forward it to me), but as I understand it, earnings have come in kinda/sorta OK relative to expectations (excluding tech). However, revenue growth has been nonexistent. Earnings have been OK because of cost cutting. We are done with that benefit, and I think earnings are going to be substantially worse going forward. Of note also, of course, is that the refinancing benefit has peaked, which bodes ill for consumer spending going forward, and thus earnings going forward, especially in retail. MU has rallied 56% in the past 3 weeks, and now trades at a 21 p/e on 2004 expectations (2003 loss expected at $.58). Of course, those estimates are probably too optimistic. Hmmm, wonder if that play will work out in the long run. Great run we're having in the indices though, wouldn't you say? Party on, Garth! Another potential threat comes from credit derivatives. This is another topic I'm still working to get my arms around, so if anyone has good info, please pass it along. Bond holders generally feel secure because they own credit insurance. However, there is serious risk associated with that credit insurance, as the underwriters might be unable to meet their obligations should a number of things go wrong at once. A severe contraction in the credit markets could be extremely problematic. (Note how corporate spreads have not tightened during the recent run in the equity markets). For more on potential derivates problems, look at CI and its implosion Friday. I think this market is painting a clear picture about what is going on. As I said before, its just a question of when, not if. Happy hunting, Eric PS As I write this, KLAC up $1.35 on the day, and has rallied 38% since its low in early Oct. Truly pathetic. - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Y! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your web site - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search new jobs daily now - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search new jobs daily now - --0-739133463-1035920050=:18264 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii <P>I'm not quite sure what you're asking. The first email I wrote re: this topic was a reply to Ed's email, in which he asked about MOVI and whether anyone had drawn conclusions similar to his. In that email, I talked briefly about my current opinions re: leadership, etc., and said I would forward a series of emails with an OT subject line that presented some pieces I had written to another group. I thought those emails might be of some interest to people on this list. <P>The below email you reference is one of those pieces. (note they are in order of composition, from oldest (1) to newest (8)). <P>Hope that answers your question. If not, feel free to email me directly. <P>Eric <P> <P> <B><I>Gene Ricci <genr@swbell.net></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid"> <META content="MSHTML 5.50.4916.2300" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">Eric, what have I missed? I've received a bunch of email with a subject of OT in it.... is there an introduction for them.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=ericjaenike@yahoo.com href="mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric Jaenike</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim group</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 11:29 AM</DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] OT 8</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <P> <P> <B><I>Eric Jaenike <<A href="mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">ericjaenike@yahoo.com</A>></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:09:25 -0800 (PST)<BR>From: Eric Jaenike <ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM><BR>Subject: More shtuff<BR>To: Anurag <ANURAG@LCPARTNERS.COM>, Dale Dumaw <DDUMAW@INDRA.COM>,<BR>Chris Jaenike <CJAENIKE@SMRH.COM>, Eric Jaenike <ERICJAENIKE@YAHOO.COM>,<BR>William Jaenike <WJAENIKE@AOL.COM>,<BR>Vitaliy Katsenelson <VITALIY.IMA@USA.NET>,<BR>Trish McNamara <TRISH@CHERRYCREEKINVESTMENTADVISORS.COM>,<BR>Sean Mullett <SRMULLETT@EARTHLINK.NET>, Fritz Reichardt <REICHF@AOL.COM><BR><BR> <P>Couple of other quick data points, and a few insights. CHTR, one of the semiconductor industry's top 3 manufacturers, announced Thurs night that capacity utilization was down to a stunning 39%. I almost fell over when I saw that. Worse than even I thought possible, and I know that TSCM is going to 50% utilization by the end of the year. Insight Enterprises (NSIT), a reseller of computer gear, also lower 4Q rev. and earns.</P> <P>Also of note, of course, were the durable goods orders reported Friday a.m.. Notably, nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, were down a startling 6.6%. While the number is very volatile, it is yet another disconcerting data point. Of course, since this rally has nothing to do with the fundamentals, the markets closed up on the day (and do I need to point out that tech led the way? Probably not.)</P> <P>I also want to point out something about this recent reporting period. I don't have as much hard data as I'd like (if someone does, please forward it to me), but as I understand it, earnings have come in kinda/sorta OK relative to expectations (excluding tech). However, revenue growth has been nonexistent. Earnings have been OK because of cost cutting. We are done with that benefit, and I think earnings are going to be substantially worse going forward. Of note also, of course, is that the refinancing benefit has peaked, which bodes ill for consumer spending going forward, and thus earnings going forward, especially in retail.</P> <P>MU has rallied 56% in the past 3 weeks, and now trades at a 21 p/e on 2004 expectations (2003 loss expected at $.58). Of course, those estimates are probably too optimistic. Hmmm, wonder if that play will work out in the long run. Great run we're having in the indices though, wouldn't you say? Party on, Garth!</P> <P> Another potential threat comes from credit derivatives. This is another topic I'm still working to get my arms around, so if anyone has good info, please pass it along. Bond holders generally feel secure because they own credit insurance. However, there is serious risk associated with that credit insurance, as the underwriters might be unable to meet their obligations should a number of things go wrong at once. A severe contraction in the credit markets could be extremely problematic. (Note how corporate spreads have not tightened during the recent run in the equity markets). For more on potential derivates problems, look at CI and its implosion Friday.</P> <P>I think this market is painting a clear picture about what is going on. As I said before, its just a question of when, not if.</P> <P>Happy hunting,</P> <P>Eric</P> <P>PS As I write this, KLAC up $1.35 on the day, and has rallied 38% since its low in early Oct. Truly pathetic.</P> <P><BR> <HR SIZE=1> Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://webhosting.yahoo.com/">Y! Web Hosting</A> - Let the expert host your web site</BLOCKQUOTE> <P><BR> <HR SIZE=1> Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com">HotJobs</A> - Search new jobs daily now</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br> <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com ">HotJobs</a> - Search new jobs daily now - --0-739133463-1035920050=:18264-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] OT 8 Gene Ricci
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]