Re: [CANSLIM] my first charts

From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] my first charts
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 20:40:21 EST
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Top of Thread: [CANSLIM] my first charts "Robin Gridley"
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Robin:

     Nice, wide-ranging list.  Here is how I see some of the stocks on it:

     BSTE- I'm watching it myself.  Very nice Earnings ($E), and a nice 
looking weekly chart (albeit V-shaped cup)-but daily seems to volatile (big 
ranges) now.

     ORLY- The RS rating is only 54, and while the RS-Line is in mild strong 
divergence from the left lip, I don't pay attention to RS rated stocks which 
are that low (to coin a phrase:  there are to many other stocks in the sea).  
Also, to me, there seems on the weekly chart as if there would be a lot of 
Overhead Resistance.

     ROOM- I see what you like in ROOM.  Very nice $E, and a nice looking 
weekly chart.  However, I don't buy stocks with funds holding 48%.  (As for 
your observations/question:  I believe that Mgt. % is taken from the shares 
outstanding; Banks and Funds % are taken from the float)

     FCBP- Weekly chart is nice looking, but I'd pass on this one for this 
one reason (and it's a good enough reason for me to dismiss the stock), 
quarterly earnings for the last 5 quarters fluctuate too much (and even if I 
ignore their volatility, quarterly earnings aren't that great). 

     SHFL- Nice looking cup in the weekly.  Earnings are OK: Annual Earnings 
are all right by CANSLIM standards; quarterly earnings aren't, but because of 
the nice chart in the weekly (for instance the RS-Line is in strong 
divergence from the left lip, and the rising 50 MA just penetrated up the 
mildly rising 200 MA I personally would keep looking at it.  Also, a very 
important fundamental indicator (at least to me) is the ROE, and DG-Online 
has it at 34%.

     HLYW-I like the weekly chart too, and earnings are accelerating very 
nicely.  Why would I personally stay away from it.  The annual earnings are 
fluctuating too much. Annual Earnings from 1998-2003 (projected '02 and '03) 
are in DGO, respectively:  .31, '$1.09, -$11.48, 1.92, $1.20 (projected), 
$1.45 (projected).  All those projected earnings are very nice, but something 
is weird here.  Cash-flow is over 3 times 2001 annual earnings (why are they 
keeping so much money on hand:  If the stock is such a good investment, why 
don't they buy it now with all that money at hand when the market is weak?).  
Also, on this point, even though sponsorship has risen nicely  in the last 4 
quarters (from 80 to 141), DG's sponsorship rating of HLWY is an E.  This 
means to me: 1) A lot of institutions are getting on board, but 2) the 
institutions that are getting on board don't have a very good track record.  
The highly rated institutions know  or see something that the others don't.

jans



In a message dated 10/31/2002 4:03:04 PM Eastern Standard Time, 
gridley02@earthlink.net writes:

<< FOA... Thanks for all the input on resources. Was much 
 appreciated.
 
 I'm listing some charts below that appear to my novice eye
 as being of interest. This is only based on what I can see
 from the charts (... and I'm not putting ANY of my money
 into ANYTHING based on those nascent skills at this point...)
 But since there isn't a lot of traffic on the board, I figured
 I might as well put them out there if only to get reasons
 why they aren't good candidates...
 
 BSTE Biosite
 GROUP RS 90, EPS Rank 75 (not great) B/B/A, 31%F/15%M (would
 prefer M to be higher) Looks to me like a cup trying to make
 a handle. >50%+ on last run. Volume dried up on handle and then
 almost hit pivot point.
 
 EXPD Expeditors
 Is this a cup? +20% on last advance. 28.3% between L and bottom
 of base. EPS 88, RS 86 B/B/A. The Group RS is 50 (Not sure how
 much I should care about that...) and Mgmt only owns 5%, with F
 at 33%. But it looks to me like it's forming a nice R to the 
 cup.
 
 FCBP
 I think this is an LLUR. Don't know what to do with those yet.
 But with Group RS 95, EPS 88, A/B/A, RS of 90, Mgmnt 36% with
 continued insider acquisitions I thought it was worth a look.
 Now if I can just figure out if that's a really, really, really
 long handle.....
 
 HLYW Hollywood Entertainment
 A cup that I think is now trying to make a handle. +20% on last
 run. Above 200DMA. Volume drying up on handle. Group RS 85, A/A
 12%M and 30%F. EPS Rank 80. I think I should like this one.
 
 ROOM Hotels.com
 Cup. B/B/A, EPS 96, Growth +166%. Mgmnt 49% & Funds 46%. RS increasing,
 59.4% on last major runup. Should I be concerned that base is 49%
 below L on cup and Group RS is 53? Also... According the DGO chart
 I'm looking at... Funds have 46%, Banks 10%, and Mgmt 49%... Okay,
 I know I'm only a marketing guy but doesn't that make the pie a little
 too big?
 
 ORLY
 I like this one two weeks ago. It had a cup then... I promise... But
 what is it now the handle seems to have gone all funky?
 Group RS 91,  B/B/A EPS 95
 
 PPDI
 Cup consolidating into handle? Fundamentals look good to me except
 that pesky group RS thing again (34%) Should that be enough to knock
 out a stock that is otherwise A/B/A, EPS 99% and a 32% growth rate?
 
 SHFL 
 Cup making handle. A/A/A, 91EPS and RS95. Group RS 80. But management
 only owns 4%.
 
 UPOX
 Cup with handle trying to break pivot. A/A/A 99EPS. RS95 but declining
 a little bit. Concerns - Group RS of 53 (DGO should really leave this
 number out of their charts... it keeps messing up my otherwise nice
 investment options....) and only 2% Management.
 
 AMGP
 Cup with handle? Group RS 98, EPS 81, A/B/A F34% M42%, Volume was
 declining in handle, good growth, nice run up before L of cup.
 
 Any comments (except 'what are u smoking?') would be very much
 appreciated.
  >>

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