Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "MARC FOURNIER" <marcf@erols.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 03 Nov 2002 10:53:20 -0200
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- --=====_103632800017133=_ Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====_103632800027419=_" - --=====_103632800027419=_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable What is llur b3+ b3 b5 Please advise Marc *********** REPLY SEPARATOR *********** On 11/2/2002 at 6:45 PM Tom Worley wrote: JAPAN After weeks of waiting, the highly touted plan to reform the banks, and= bring an eventual end to the combination of recession and deflation, was= trotted out. Unfortunately, Japan remains a toothless tiger, and will= continue to drag on the world's economy for years to come. The Nikkei had= been sagging, and threatening once again to fall under 8,000, as banks= feared that Takenaka would deliver a strong and strict reform plan with= full govt backing. Then, as it became obvious that he was running into= political opposition from his own party's old guard, the markets rallied,= and even briefly climbed over 9,000. The plan as delivered is so watered= down that it pleases no one, nor appears to change much at all from the= present. The plans to accelerate write offs of bad loans now looks like it= will not actually speed up the process, and will take until 2004 or 2005= at least, and that's assuming they stop adding new defaulted loans as fast= as they write off others, which has been the pattern for several years.= The expectation that banks would be required to adhere to strict int'l= accounting standards in identifying non-performing loans (which could= triple the volume of bad loans from the official level of about $400= billion to well over $1.2 trillion) became instead mere guidance and= encouragement. And the most controversial element, that of eliminating by= March 2003 the legal use of the "expectation" of a future tax refund= (resulting from writing off bad loans also in the future) as part of the= bank's current required capital reserve, was essentially eliminated= entirely. This was significant, since this would likely have put half the= banks below required minimum capital requirements. New rules were= established to require greater capital reserves on new loans that is more= risk related, however it is expected that this will simply mean less= capital available to small businesses. And to make matters worse, while= Japan wallows in debt (135% of GDP, worst industrialized nation in the= world, $5.3 trillion), there are calls for tax cuts even while the= collection of taxes falls well under the level needed by the govt. As of= August, tax collection was running 19% under last year with only 23% of= the full year target collected with 40% of the year already gone. The govt= is pledged to "only" add a further 30 trillion yen in new debt to its load= this year, but if this loss of tax revenue due to the dismal economy= persists, it alone could increase this figure another 6 or 7 trillion yen.= Any supplemental budget to either pump more money into the economy, or to= infuse fresh cash into failing banks, or more tax cuts, will additionally= increase the Japanese national debt. The Japanese banking system, and= economy, remains on the path to total meltdown and collapse. This was= Prime Minister Koizumi's best, and perhaps last, chance to make a= difference, and it didn't happen. The only hope now is that the global= economy can recover so quickly and strongly that it can drag Japan's= export based economy back into being a powerful engine of the world= economy. That doesn't look likely to happen either, especially with Japan= having to be carried on the backs of other nations. "M" While we somehow managed to hold on and get our fourth week of gains on= every major index, this rally continues to look tired. It still is not= clear to me if we are trying to do the second leg up of a double bottom= "W" formation, or are stagnating in the right shoulder of a head and= shoulders pattern. Volume remains boring, hovering around average.= Volatility has dropped, as had VIX. We survived the earnings reporting= cycle without significant damage, and even got a few decent forward= looking forecasts. Several indexes (Russell 2000, Naz 100, Naz Composite)= are beginning to look more like continuing the rally while the rest appear= to be stagnating in the h&s pattern. Only time will tell which will win= out. I remain fully in cash in my margin acct, but did go so far as to get= preclearance for buys of up to about a dozen tech stocks, just haven't= executed any yet. Elections on Tuesday, and the Feds meeting on Tue and= Wed, will likely affect the markets early in the week. And the only= question with the Feds appears to be whether the long awaited cut will be= 25 BP or 50. A quarter point cut is already priced into the Treasuries, so= anything less will be a blow to the markets (my bet is on 25 BP). Consumer= spending and sentiment is the worst so far this year. Significant economic= and corporate profit recovery appears now to have been postponed from the= second half of this year until at least mid year 2003. While it may make= some sense to nibble around the edges, and take some small or partial= positions, "M" has still not clearly spoken, so keep your powder dry and= your cash safe. ECONOMICS The steady rise in gas prices finally slowed last week, amid most major oil= companies reporting lousy earnings for Q3. Where is all the money going?= Crude has been steadily dropping as part of the Iraqi War Premium is= stripped out, gas pump prices nonetheless went up, and oil company profits= are falling. What am I missing? Is it just a lack of product volume sales? Chain store sales rose 1.4% during the first 3 weeks of October compared to= September, attributed to cooler weather. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell off the cliff= in October, dropping to 79.4 from September's 93.7. Fifth straight monthly= decline, well under expectations of 90, lowest since Nov 1993. Also= biggest month to month decline since 9/11. Employment Cost Index rose by 0.8% during Q3, below expectations of 1.0%,= as businesses delayed or cancelled wage, salary or benefits increases.= Wages and salaries combined only grew by 0.5%, smallest increase since Q1= 1999. Weekly unemployment reports continue to paint a picture of a stagnant labor= market, new claims rising to 410,000, above expectations of 399K. Workers= continuing on unemployment increased 76K to 3.6 million. That's a LOT of= people out of work as Christmas approaches. Ouch!! Good news, bad news. The preliminary Q3 report of GDP shows a rise to 3.1%,= well above Q2's anemic 1.3%, but also well under expectations of 3.6%.= Consumer spending drove the numbers, up 4.2%, but much of that may have= been early in the quarter, especially on new autos (durable goods= including cars was up 22.7%) which appears to have topped out. One hopeful= sign was business spending on equipment and software, rising at a 6.5%= rate and strongest since Q2 2000 (remember the tech bubble??). CPI was up= a lethargic 1.4%, so inflation remains a non-event, much less a threat. In a prelude to the nat'l survey, the Chicago Assn of Purchasing Managers= index fell further and faster in October, down to 45.9 from 48.1 in Sept.= Expectations were for 49, so contraction was not only expected, it was= worse than expected by a wide margin. The employment component of this= index fell to 41.6 from 46.6, but prices paid rose to 62.0 from 57.6. Paralleling the Chicago report, the national report from ISM came in with a= decline to 48.5% in October, down a full percent from September and below= expectations of 48.9%. The employment component rose to 45 from 44.9, so= got worse at a slightly marginally slower rate. On a positive note, the= new orders component rose to 50.9 from 50.2, second monthly rise and= keeping alive hopes for future improvements. US Dollar remains top of the pile, despite accounting scandals, severe= drops in the US markets, poor corporate earnings, fear of recession or war= with Iraq, etc. The US dollar is off 12% against the Euro so far this= year, and 7% against the yen. But the dollar still beats both over the= past 4 years. The S&P500 is down 22% for the year, but France's CAC40 is= down 26.6% and Germany's DAX is down 33.3%, and who's still counting the= NIKKEI as it battles 19 year lows? Consumer spending dropped 0.4% in September, largest decline in 10 months.= Consumer income rose by the same 0.4%. Both were weaker than expectations= of a negative 0.2% and a positive 0.5% respectively. The Longshoremen's Union and the Pacific Maritime Assn have apparently= reached a tentative agreement over implementation of technology. While= details are not out, maybe now productively can at least return to prior= levels, if not exceed that. Construction spending remains strong, up 0.6% in September, and reversing a= four month decline. But its all concentrated in residential housing.= Nonresidential construction fell to more than a six year low. Expectations= were for an overall 0.2% improvement. Overall unemployment rose slightly to 5.7% instead of the expected 5.8%.= Businesses cut 5,000 jobs in line with expectations of unchanged, with= service jobs again increasing while manufacturing jobs declining. Personal= savings rate also increased to 4.2% from 3.4%. Visa, Master Charge and= American Express better watch out, people might actually start paying off= their credit card balances instead of running them higher. WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It is= a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M"= and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with= constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from= (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in Operations= by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my= own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions= of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and= try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout= scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria,= focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all= industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my personal= investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this= year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due= diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I= see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx= where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper= Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. Rarely are any of= these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due size, price= or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a current= personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is stable to slightly= improving. CAH - 2nd handle? CCCG - B3 CHCO - LLUR CHS - c&h? CPKI - high handle FESX - B5 GDW - double bottom IDXC - cup w/o handle KSWS - c&h MVL - c&h PCLE - c&h PFGC - c&h RKY - c&h SHFL - c&h STN - b/o Wed on over 3X ADV, within 5% of pivot SYMC - stealth b/o from the handle on below avg volume TSCO - b/o Friday on 2.5X ADV from a B3+ Happy hunting, and good luck, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley Marc Fournier Marcf@erols.com - --=====_103632800027419=_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV>What is llur b3+ b3 b5 </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Please advise</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Marc<BR><FONT face=Arial size=2>*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********<BR><BR>On 11/2/2002 at 6:45 PM Tom Worley wrote:</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid"> <DIV><FONT face=Arial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>After weeks of waiting, the highly touted plan to reform the banks, and bring an eventual end to the combination of recession and deflation, was trotted out. Unfortunately, Japan remains a toothless tiger, and will continue to drag on the world's economy for years to come. The Nikkei had been sagging, and threatening once again to fall under 8,000, as banks feared that Takenaka would deliver a strong and strict reform plan with full govt backing. Then, as it became obvious that he was running into political opposition from his own party's old guard, the markets rallied, and even briefly climbed over 9,000. The plan as delivered is so watered down that it pleases no one, nor appears to change much at all from the present. The plans to accelerate write offs of bad loans now looks like it will not actually speed up the process, and will take until 2004 or 2005 at least, and that's assuming they stop adding new defaulted loans as fast as they write off others, which has been the pattern for several years. The expectation that banks would be required to adhere to strict int'l accounting standards in identifying non-performing loans (which could triple the volume of bad loans from the official level of about $400 billion to well over $1.2 trillion) became instead mere guidance and encouragement. And the most controversial element, that of eliminating by March 2003 the legal use of the "expectation" of a future tax refund (resulting from writing off bad loans also in the future) as part of the bank's current required capital reserve, was essentially eliminated entirely. This was significant, since this would likely have put half the banks below required minimum capital requirements. New rules were established to require greater capital reserves on new loans that is more risk related, however it is expected that this will simply mean less capital available to small businesses. And to make matters worse, while Japan wallows in debt (135% of GDP, worst industrialized nation in the world, $5.3 trillion), there are calls for tax cuts even while the collection of taxes falls well under the level needed by the govt. As of August, tax collection was running 19% under last year with only 23% of the full year target collected with 40% of the year already gone. The govt is pledged to "only" add a further 30 trillion yen in new debt to its load this year, but if this loss of tax revenue due to the dismal economy persists, it alone could increase this figure another 6 or 7 trillion yen. Any supplemental budget to either pump more money into the economy, or to infuse fresh cash into failing banks, or more tax cuts, will additionally increase the Japanese national debt. The Japanese banking system, and economy, remains on the path to total meltdown and collapse. This was Prime Minister Koizumi's best, and perhaps last, chance to make a difference, and it didn't happen. The only hope now is that the global economy can recover so quickly and strongly that it can drag Japan's export based economy back into being a powerful engine of the world economy. That doesn't look likely to happen either, especially with Japan having to be carried on the backs of other nations. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>While we somehow managed to hold on and get our fourth week of gains on every major index, this rally continues to look tired. It still is not clear to me if we are trying to do the second leg up of a double bottom "W" formation, or are stagnating in the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. Volume remains boring, hovering around average. Volatility has dropped, as had VIX. We survived the earnings reporting cycle without significant damage, and even got a few decent forward looking forecasts. Several indexes (Russell 2000, Naz 100, Naz Composite) are beginning to look more like continuing the rally while the rest appear to be stagnating in the h&s pattern. Only time will tell which will win out. I remain fully in cash in my margin acct, but did go so far as to get preclearance for buys of up to about a dozen tech stocks, just haven't executed any yet. Elections on Tuesday, and the Feds meeting on Tue and Wed, will likely affect the markets early in the week. And the only question with the Feds appears to be whether the long awaited cut will be 25 BP or 50. A quarter point cut is already priced into the Treasuries, so anything less will be a blow to the markets (my bet is on 25 BP). Consumer spending and sentiment is the worst so far this year. Significant economic and corporate profit recovery appears now to have been postponed from the second half of this year until at least mid year 2003. While it may make some sense to nibble around the edges, and take some small or partial positions, "M" has still not clearly spoken, so keep your powder dry and your cash safe. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>The steady rise in gas prices finally slowed last week, amid most major oil companies reporting lousy earnings for Q3. Where is all the money going? Crude has been steadily dropping as part of the Iraqi War Premium is stripped out, gas pump prices nonetheless went up, and oil company profits are falling. What am I missing? Is it just a lack of product volume sales?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Chain store sales rose 1.4% during the first 3 weeks of October compared to September, attributed to cooler weather.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell off the cliff in October, dropping to 79.4 from September's 93.7. Fifth straight monthly decline, well under expectations of 90, lowest since Nov 1993. Also biggest month to month decline since 9/11.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Employment Cost Index rose by 0.8% during Q3, below expectations of 1.0%, as businesses delayed or cancelled wage, salary or benefits increases. Wages and salaries combined only grew by 0.5%, smallest increase since Q1 1999.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Weekly unemployment reports continue to paint a picture of a stagnant labor market, new claims rising to 410,000, above expectations of 399K. Workers continuing on unemployment increased 76K to 3.6 million. That's a LOT of people out of work as Christmas approaches. Ouch!!</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Good news, bad news. The preliminary Q3 report of GDP shows a rise to 3.1%, well above Q2's anemic 1.3%, but also well under expectations of 3.6%. Consumer spending drove the numbers, up 4.2%, but much of that may have been early in the quarter, especially on new autos (durable goods including cars was up 22.7%) which appears to have topped out. One hopeful sign was business spending on equipment and software, rising at a 6.5% rate and strongest since Q2 2000 (remember the tech bubble??). CPI was up a lethargic 1.4%, so inflation remains a non-event, much less a threat.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>In a prelude to the nat'l survey, the Chicago Assn of Purchasing Managers index fell further and faster in October, down to 45.9 from 48.1 in Sept. Expectations were for 49, so contraction was not only expected, it was worse than expected by a wide margin. The employment component of this index fell to 41.6 from 46.6, but prices paid rose to 62.0 from 57.6.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Paralleling the Chicago report, the national report from ISM came in with a decline to 48.5% in October, down a full percent from September and below expectations of 48.9%. The employment component rose to 45 from 44.9, so got worse at a slightly marginally slower rate. On a positive note, the new orders component rose to 50.9 from 50.2, second monthly rise and keeping alive hopes for future improvements.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>US Dollar remains top of the pile, despite accounting scandals, severe drops in the US markets, poor corporate earnings, fear of recession or war with Iraq, etc. The US dollar is off 12% against the Euro so far this year, and 7% against the yen. But the dollar still beats both over the past 4 years. The S&P500 is down 22% for the year, but France's CAC40 is down 26.6% and Germany's DAX is down 33.3%, and who's still counting the NIKKEI as it battles 19 year lows?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Consumer spending dropped 0.4% in September, largest decline in 10 months. Consumer income rose by the same 0.4%. Both were weaker than expectations of a negative 0.2% and a positive 0.5% respectively.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>The Longshoremen's Union and the Pacific Maritime Assn have apparently reached a tentative agreement over implementation of technology. While details are not out, maybe now productively can at least return to prior levels, if not exceed that.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Construction spending remains strong, up 0.6% in September, and reversing a four month decline. But its all concentrated in residential housing. Nonresidential construction fell to more than a six year low. Expectations were for an overall 0.2% improvement.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Overall unemployment rose slightly to 5.7% instead of the expected 5.8%. Businesses cut 5,000 jobs in line with expectations of unchanged, with service jobs again increasing while manufacturing jobs declining. Personal savings rate also increased to 4.2% from 3.4%. Visa, Master Charge and American Express better watch out, people might actually start paying off their credit card balances instead of running them higher.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of course doing your own due diligence). <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed in Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT color=#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your responsibility</FONT>. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is stable to slightly improving.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>CAH - 2nd handle?</DIV> <DIV>CCCG - B3</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CHS - c&h?</DIV> <DIV>CPKI - high handle</DIV> <DIV>FESX - B5</DIV> <DIV>GDW - double bottom</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - cup w/o handle</DIV> <DIV>KSWS - c&h</DIV> <DIV>MVL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PFGC - c&h</DIV> <DIV>RKY - c&h</DIV> <DIV>SHFL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>STN - b/o Wed on over 3X ADV, within 5% of pivot</DIV> <DIV>SYMC - stealth b/o from the handle on below avg volume</DIV> <DIV>TSCO - b/o Friday on 2.5X ADV from a B3+</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy hunting, and good luck,</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt="" hspace=0 src="cid:200211031053180912.0561C11720EB" align=baseline border=0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT face=Arial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial>AIM: TexWorley</FONT></DIV><FONT size=2 Arial></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></BODY></HTML> <BR> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR></HEAD> <BODY style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial" text=#000000 bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face="Script MT Bold" size=5></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Script MT Bold" size=5></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Script MT Bold" size=5>Marc Fournier</FONT></DIV> <DIV><A href="mailto:Marcf@erols.com"><EM><FONT size=2>Marcf@erols.com</FONT></EM></A></DIV> <DIV> <DIV><IMG alt="" hspace=0 src="cid:200210271933290825.0792875A57B1" align=baseline border=0></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML> - --=====_103632800027419=_-- - --=====_103632800017133=_ Content-Type: image/gif; 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