Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 9 Nov 2002 20:03:29 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_019D_01C2882B.123AF460 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_019E_01C2882B.123AF460" - ------=_NextPart_001_019E_01C2882B.123AF460 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Commerce Dept says orders for US manufacturing goods declined 2.3% in = September, bad but not as bad as the 3.0% decline expected. Most of the = drop came from a loss in demand for aircraft. They also revised the = durable goods component from the prior reported 5.9% drop to only 4.9%. The Challenger survey showed that planned job cuts, based on announced = layoff notices, rocketed to over 176K in October, highest since last = January. Good thing unemployment is a lagging indicator, I guess. May = just be an overreaction to September hitting a 22 month low. Continuing a trend seen for some time, the ISM index for = non-manufacturing sector (service, in simple words, as opposed to making = something) continued to expand, but at a steadily slower rate. Came in = at 53.1 for October, down from September's 53.9. Expectations were even = worse, at 52.0. FOMC cuts rates by a surprising 50 BP on Wednesday, and the markets here = and globally didn't like it. One school of thinking fears the Feds see = the economy as even worse than perceived. Another, more cynical (and = rational) recognize that any cut of any size will make no difference = short term. Either way, will be the last cut for a long time probably, = and takes us to 12 cuts so far totaling 525 BP without major recovery in = the economy. And there's only 125 BP left before they start paying us to = borrow money. Part of the decision may have hinged on Mr. G trying to = hold his team together since he voted against the two voting governors = last month that wanted to cut rates then. Wholesale inventories jumped by 0.5% in September against expectations = of only 0.2%. Biggest cause was autos, up 2.7%. Labor says we worked harder and produced more in Third Quarter as = productivity jumped 4.0% on an annual basis, up from Q2's rate of only = 1.7%. It was still below expectations of a gain of 4.2%. Unit labor = costs were up at a non-inflationary level of 0.8% and well down from = Q2's jump of 2.2%. Compensation per hour soared 4.8% (at least for some, = but not here for sure). Consumer credit growth again grew rapidly, jumping to $9.9 billion in = September, well up from August's $5.6 billion and also way over = expectations of $5.6 billion increase. gives me some hope for finding = another successful trip in EPIQ (would be my 6th), altho I want to watch = their latest $30 million private placement (then again, last time they = did that it was only about $8 million, and price went up over 50% in = less than 6 months, but those were also different times). Deflation and the Japan/USA economies - anyone interested in economics, = there is an interesting article worth reading at cnn.com http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/07/news/economy/deflation/index.htm - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is stable, to = slightly increasing. ARTI - very deep cup, handle may be starting AZO - high handle on the cup CENT - high handle, nicer cup CHCO - LLUR ESPD - high handle FESX - B6, but may be failing the base HBHC - LLUR but getting volatile KSWS - c&h MNTR - rough c&h NWRE - volume on the b/o past the pivot of the double volume not = convincing NXTL - interesting c&h on a low priced big cap telecom PSUN - low volume b/o from a handle on double bottom QSII - B3 SFNT - interesting chart since the double bottom, one of my favorites = for the sector SHFL - was a nice c&h, but failing the handle b/o, and on volume SLE - B3 SXT - weak double bottom SYMC - first b/o from the handle failing on light volume UOPX - c&h, long handle, volume dropping WDC - c&h Happy hunting, and Happy Veterans Day on Monday Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_019E_01C2882B.123AF460 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Commerce Dept says orders for US manufacturing = goods=20 declined 2.3% in September, bad but not as bad as the 3.0% decline = expected.=20 Most of the drop came from a loss in demand for aircraft. They also = revised the=20 durable goods component from the prior reported 5.9% drop to only=20 4.9%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Challenger survey showed that planned job = cuts, based=20 on announced layoff notices, rocketed to over 176K in October, highest = since=20 last January. Good thing unemployment is a lagging indicator, I guess. = May just=20 be an overreaction to September hitting a 22 month low.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Continuing a trend seen for some time, the ISM = index for=20 non-manufacturing sector (service, in simple words, as opposed to making = something) continued to expand, but at a steadily slower rate. Came in = at 53.1=20 for October, down from September's 53.9. Expectations were even worse, = at=20 52.0.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FOMC cuts rates by a surprising 50 BP on = Wednesday, and=20 the markets here and globally didn't like it. One school of thinking = fears the=20 Feds see the economy as even worse than perceived. Another, more cynical = (and=20 rational) recognize that any cut of any size will make no difference = short term.=20 Either way, will be the last cut for a long time probably, and takes us = to 12=20 cuts so far totaling 525 BP without major recovery in the economy. And = there's=20 only 125 BP left before they start paying us to borrow money. Part of = the=20 decision may have hinged on Mr. G trying to hold his team together since = he=20 voted against the two voting governors last month that wanted to cut = rates=20 then.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories jumped by 0.5% in = September against=20 expectations of only 0.2%. Biggest cause was autos, up = 2.7%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Labor says we worked harder and produced more in = Third=20 Quarter as productivity jumped 4.0% on an annual basis, up from Q2's = rate of=20 only 1.7%. It was still below expectations of a gain of 4.2%. Unit labor = costs=20 were up at a non-inflationary level of 0.8% and well down from Q2's jump = of=20 2.2%. Compensation per hour soared 4.8% (at least for some, but not here = for=20 sure).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer credit growth again grew rapidly, = jumping to $9.9=20 billion in September, well up from August's $5.6 billion and also way = over=20 expectations of $5.6 billion increase. gives me some hope for finding = another=20 successful trip in EPIQ (would be my 6th), altho I want to watch their = latest=20 $30 million private placement (then again, last time they did that it = was only=20 about $8 million, and price went up over 50% in less than 6 months, but = those=20 were also different times).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Deflation and the Japan/USA economies - anyone = interested=20 in economics, there is an interesting article worth reading at=20 cnn.com</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><A=20 href=3D"http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/07/news/economy/deflation/index.htm"= >http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/07/news/economy/deflation/index.htm</A></FO= NT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 stable, to slightly increasing.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ARTI - very deep cup, handle may be starting</DIV> <DIV>AZO - high handle on the cup</DIV> <DIV>CENT - high handle, nicer cup</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ESPD - high handle</DIV> <DIV>FESX - B6, but may be failing the base</DIV> <DIV>HBHC - LLUR but getting volatile</DIV> <DIV>KSWS - c&h</DIV> <DIV>MNTR - rough c&h</DIV> <DIV>NWRE - volume on the b/o past the pivot of the double = volume not=20 convincing</DIV> <DIV>NXTL - interesting c&h on a low priced big cap telecom</DIV> <DIV>PSUN - low volume b/o from a handle on double bottom</DIV> <DIV>QSII - B3</DIV> <DIV>SFNT - interesting chart since the double bottom, one of my = favorites for=20 the sector</DIV> <DIV>SHFL - was a nice c&h, but failing the handle b/o, and on = volume</DIV> <DIV>SLE - B3</DIV> <DIV>SXT - weak double bottom</DIV> <DIV>SYMC - first b/o from the handle failing on light volume</DIV> <DIV>UOPX - c&h, long handle, volume dropping</DIV> <DIV>WDC - c&h</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy hunting, and Happy Veterans Day on=20 Monday</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:019c01c28854$fb0e8b60$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_019E_01C2882B.123AF460-- - ------=_NextPart_000_019D_01C2882B.123AF460 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <019c01c28854$fb0e8b60$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> 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