Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 16 Nov 2002 15:38:16 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0168_01C28D86.2E5658A0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0169_01C28D86.2E5658A0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0169_01C28D86.2E5658A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS While inflation is always a concern, it has not so far been an issue, = allowing the Feds to lower rates to record lows, and keep them there. = Deflation, on the other hand, is a real threat, especially to investors. = Simply put, deflation means demand is so weak that producers are not = able to raise prices. As investors, if corporations cannot raise prices, = it is likely they cannot improve earnings except through cuts in costs = (short term solution) or increase in sales volume (long term, but in a = weak economy likely must be achieved by increasing market share, which = means some competitors must fail). As of September, 40% of all products = and services were priced below levels of a year prior. That, to me, is = deflation, and one of the biggest problems Japan already faces in = climbing out of its economic hole. This chart, from Merrill Lynch based = on govt stats, shows the products most affected. =20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Retail sales were flat in October after falling 1.3% in September. = Excluding auto sales, the rate was up 0.7%. Expectations were for a drop = of 0.2% overall, and an increase of 0.3% on the core rate. Substantial renovations to bankruptcy law again failed in Congress for = the fifth year, this time over abortion protestors using bankruptcy to = avoid paying fines related to anti-abortion protests. This was a defeat = for the banks and credit card companies primarily. Wholesale prices, as if to counter fears of deflation (and ignite fears = of inflation) jumped 1.1% in October. Biggest gainers were prices for = gasoline (how can that be, crude prices were falling all month??), cars = and trucks (is that why their sales were falling so fast??). Forecasts = had been for a 0.2% increase, in line with recent months. This was the = largest increase in 19 months. The core rate (excluding energy, food) = was up 0.5% (biggest increase in over 3 years), also exceeding = expectations and the trends of recent months. Start of a trend, or one = month's anomaly?? Check back in a month. Best explanation for the recent = rise in car/truck prices? They have lost so much money, and gone so deep = in debt, by offering zero interest loans that they have to start making = up for it. Just proves, there is no such thing as a free lunch, someone = always pays the price. Inventories increased 0.5%, above expectations of 0.1%, in September and = reflecting the softening economy. Retail stores, car lots, and furniture = stores were most affected. Largest increase in almost two years. New unemployment claims came in at 388,000 and below expectations of = 396K. Four week moving average finally fell back under 400K, down 6,500 = to 396,750. Industrial production in October fell sharply, down 0.8%, and worse than = expectations of a 0.3% decline. Capacity utilization also fell, to = 75.2%, and below expectations of 75.6%. Once again, the auto industry = contributed measurably to this. Consumers offered a bit of hope in Univ. of Michigan's November survey = of consumer sentiment, jumping to 85.0 from 80.6 at the end of October, = and well over expectations of 82.0. Maybe the Christmas shopping season = can still be saved despite everything. The expectations component also = rose to 79.2 from 73.1. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is stable to = slightly declining. ACL - B2 BSTE - c&h CENT - high handle CHCO - LLUR CHS - c&h COCO - LLUR COH - high handle COLM - nice b/o from a not quite perfect handle on a double bottom ESPD - nice reversal Thursday on volume in the high handle EXPD - b/o Friday from the handle on volume GRMN - nice cup forming, good volume on right side IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund LXK - nice cup and handle, deep though NUTR - B13, last 3 weeks mostly tight price action, low ADV NWRE - short double bottom, at pivot, in my VR Fund NXTL - high handle forming on a long cup, a telecom doing well PSUN - double bottom RGIS - c&h SHRP - c&h SLE - B4 SYY - B4 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0169_01C28D86.2E5658A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While inflation is always a concern, it has not = so far=20 been an issue, allowing the Feds to lower rates to record lows, and keep = them=20 there. Deflation, on the other hand, is a real threat, especially to = investors.=20 Simply put, deflation means demand is so weak that producers are not = able to=20 raise prices. As investors, if corporations cannot raise prices, it is = likely=20 they cannot improve earnings except through cuts in costs (short term = solution)=20 or increase in sales volume (long term, but in a weak economy likely = must be=20 achieved by increasing market share, which means some competitors must = fail). As=20 of September, 40% of all products and services were priced below levels = of a=20 year prior. That, to me, is deflation, and one of the biggest problems = Japan=20 already faces in climbing out of its economic hole. This chart, from = Merrill=20 Lynch based on govt stats, shows the products most = affected.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:016601c28db0$1729efa0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Retail sales were flat in October after falling = 1.3% in=20 September. Excluding auto sales, the rate was up 0.7%. Expectations were = for a=20 drop of 0.2% overall, and an increase of 0.3% on the core = rate.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Substantial renovations to bankruptcy law again = failed in=20 Congress for the fifth year, this time over abortion protestors using = bankruptcy=20 to avoid paying fines related to anti-abortion protests. This was a = defeat for=20 the banks and credit card companies primarily.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale prices, as if to counter fears of = deflation (and=20 ignite fears of inflation) jumped 1.1% in October. Biggest gainers were = prices=20 for gasoline (how can that be, crude prices were falling all month??), = cars and=20 trucks (is that why their sales were falling so fast??). Forecasts had = been for=20 a 0.2% increase, in line with recent months. This was the largest = increase in 19=20 months. The core rate (excluding energy, food) was up 0.5% (biggest = increase in=20 over 3 years), also exceeding expectations and the trends of recent = months.=20 Start of a trend, or one month's anomaly?? Check back in a month. Best=20 explanation for the recent rise in car/truck prices? They have lost so = much=20 money, and gone so deep in debt, by offering zero interest loans that = they have=20 to start making up for it. Just proves, there is no such thing as a free = lunch,=20 someone always pays the price.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Inventories increased 0.5%, above expectations = of 0.1%, in=20 September and reflecting the softening economy. Retail stores, car lots, = and=20 furniture stores were most affected. Largest increase in almost two=20 years.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims came in at 388,000 and = below=20 expectations of 396K. Four week moving average finally fell back under = 400K,=20 down 6,500 to 396,750.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial production in October fell sharply, = down 0.8%,=20 and worse than expectations of a 0.3% decline. Capacity = utilization also=20 fell, to 75.2%, and below expectations of 75.6%</FONT><FONT = face=3DArial>. Once=20 again, the auto industry contributed measurably to this.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumers offered a bit of hope in Univ. of = Michigan's=20 November survey of consumer sentiment, jumping to 85.0 from 80.6 at the = end of=20 October, and well over expectations of 82.0. Maybe the Christmas = shopping season=20 can still be saved despite everything. The expectations component also = rose to=20 79.2 from 73.1.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> = </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 stable to slightly declining.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACL - B2</DIV> <DIV>BSTE - c&h</DIV> <DIV>CENT - high handle</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CHS - c&h</DIV> <DIV>COCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>COH - high handle</DIV> <DIV>COLM - nice b/o from a not quite perfect handle on a double = bottom</DIV> <DIV>ESPD - nice reversal Thursday on volume in the high handle</DIV> <DIV>EXPD - b/o Friday from the handle on volume</DIV> <DIV>GRMN - nice cup forming, good volume on right side</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>LXK - nice cup and handle, deep though</DIV> <DIV>NUTR - B13, last 3 weeks mostly tight price action, low ADV</DIV> <DIV>NWRE - short double bottom, at pivot, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>NXTL - high handle forming on a long cup, a telecom doing = well</DIV> <DIV>PSUN - double bottom</DIV> <DIV>RGIS - c&h</DIV> <DIV>SHRP - c&h</DIV> <DIV>SLE - B4</DIV> <DIV>SYY - B4</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:016701c28db0$1729efa0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0169_01C28D86.2E5658A0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0168_01C28D86.2E5658A0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Deflation.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <016601c28db0$1729efa0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhIwEWAdUAAP///8cjIwEgX2VkZQCYIWB/pD5jkAIEBhiqRgB+B5CRkLq6usrM0JLYqLLW x+SdnYIPD6i5zMTuzuvr6wAGPj63Zu/FxR5JfT0/PtLX4XiSsvT09djx3vbg4AA2AOX26EAEBGLH 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