Re: [CANSLIM] Market tops

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market tops
Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 23:07:18 -0500

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Rolf,

I think the better performance lately by Naz is little more than a
reflection that it sold off far more than other major indexes. And I also
think it still represents collectively the best probability of revenue and
earnings growth, new products, entrepreneurial activity, etc.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "rolf hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 7:03 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Market tops

Went back to WON books today to see if I could understand what
the market is telling me since the FTD of 10 October.  During October,
the DOW, S&P500 and NASD experienced several distribution days.
Below is the date and percent drop for each index:

  DOW                     S&P                   NASD
 10/22 (1.0)           10/22 (1.1)           10/22 (1.3)
 10/24 (2.1)           10/24 (1.5)           10/24 (1.6)
 10/28 (0.9)           10/28 (0.8)           10/28 (1.2)
 10/31 (0.4)           10/29 (0.9)
                              10/31 (0.6)

According to WON, this would have raised caution flags by
the end of October.  Until yesterday, only the S&P had another
distribution day in November [11/13 with a small (0.1)].  In
November, the 3 indices had several accumulation days, especially
the NASD with the following gains:
DOW: 0.4,  0.1,  0.3,  0.2,  1.7
S&P: 0.8,  0.9,  0.8,  2.5
NASD: 2.0,  0.2,  2.3,  2.6,  1.3,  2.3,  0.9

Yesterday the NASD had a distribution day and today both the DOW
and S&P did, though with small % loss and not tremendous volume
increase.

So, I have the following questions:
1. Do the accumulation days in early November negate the October
    distribution days, i.e., do we start counting distribution days again
now?
2. Or are we still under a yellow flag?  Asked differently, how often do
    several distribution days *not* signal a probable xx% M decline?
3. Is the better performance of the NASD (less dis days and more
    powerful acc days) implying that perhaps folks are still chasing old
    90s favorites?  And does this tell us anything about the health of this
    rally?

TIA for any thoughts or opinions.  I've spent most of my 'stock' time
over the past year trying to understand the M.

 Rolf

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