Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2002 15:39:09 -0800
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Hi Eric:
Your list illustrates my confusion. One of the things that makes today unusual is the behaviour of the recent winners. 7 of the 9 isues in your list seriously underperformed the indices today (ATRS and PIXR both followed 'M", up 4%+ each). What does it mean when the emerging leaders of the first 6 weeks of the bull suddenly weaken, while the indices surge? Is there a precendence for this? Does WON have an opinion on it?
Shouldn't the newly emerging winners consistently have been powering ahead 5%+ today?
Thanks,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Eric Jaenike
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:
Katherine,
I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian,
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Eric Jaenike
President
Vector Investment Management
303-300-2961
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Eric:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Your list illustrates my confusion. One of the things that
makes today unusual is the behaviour of the recent winners. 7 of the 9 isues in
your list seriously underperformed the indices today (ATRS and PIXR both
followed 'M", up 4%+ each). What does it mean when the emerging leaders of the
first 6 weeks of the bull suddenly weaken, while the indices surge? Is there a
precendence for this? Does WON have an opinion on it?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Shouldn't the newly emerging winners consistently have been
powering ahead 5%+ today?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com" title=ericjaenike@yahoo.com>Eric
Jaenike</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:02
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear.
While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning
whether it is real or not says something.
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of
the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While
there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run
would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the
October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear,
assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really
performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR.
(These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others,
such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as
not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks
such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this
market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as
PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to
also be a sign that this run is getting old.
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think
this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
<P>Eric
<P>
<P> <B><I>kentuna <kentuna@cox.net></I></B> wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
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<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know this has been discussed before, but
would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the
actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title=kmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002
2:04 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Ian,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that
the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in
government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this
action from the sideline as well."
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is
definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as
healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've
seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca" title=ianstm@shaw.ca>Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002
3:23 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from
this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders
are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power
ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand
to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending -
the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the
sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this
just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted
positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>
<ADDRESS>Eric Jaenike</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>President</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>Vector Investment Management</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>303-300-2961</ADDRESS>
<P><BR>
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