Re: [CANSLIM] M

From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 07:25:36 -0800 (PST)

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In determining whether "people" are confident the rally is real, I think you need to use a consistent indicator across time. For that, I use % bull/bear. Bulls are above 50, bears are below 25. That is pretty extreme.
As for who "people" are who are questioning this rally, I am referring to the canslimmers on this list, per the previous post I was referring to. In a true bull run, it is fairly obvious where the leaders are, and it only requires a little work to find them. I would argue that you have to do quite a bit of work to uncover the leadership here, which is pretty thin for a run of this size. For example, in last years' 4Q, which I don't consider a true bull run but rather a playable oversold bounce, the homebuilders were right in your face as leaders. The move was broad and aggressive (there were other leaders too, of course). I don't see that here.
Eric
 AJAskey@aol.com wrote:
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something. 

I think you should really worry more when people are confident that it is real.  And who are "people" anyway?  The clowns on TV who say the market is going to tank while their traders are buying up all the shares the talking head shook free?

Andy



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<P>In determining whether "people" are confident the rally is real, I think you need to use a consistent indicator across time. For that, I use % bull/bear. Bulls are above 50, bears are below 25. That is pretty extreme.
<P>As for who "people" are who are questioning this rally, I am referring to the canslimmers on this list, per the previous post I was referring to. In a true bull run, it is fairly obvious where the leaders are, and it only requires a little work to find them. I would argue that you have to do quite a bit of work to uncover the leadership here, which is pretty thin for a run of this size. For example, in last years' 4Q, which I don't consider a true bull run but rather a playable oversold bounce, the homebuilders were right in your face as leaders. The move was broad and aggressive (there were other leaders too, of course). I don't see that here.
<P>Eric
<P>&nbsp;<B><I>AJAskey@aol.com</I></B> wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid"><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px" TYPE="CITE">I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something. </BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>I think you should really worry more when people are confident that it is real.&nbsp; And who are "people" anyway?&nbsp; The clowns on TV who say the market is going to tank while their traders are buying up all the shares the talking head shook free?<BR><BR>Andy<BR></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
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