Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 11:21:59 -0600
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Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, =
you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts =
before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still =
not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as =
a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board.
If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have =
shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=3D6, AvgVol>=3D30000, =
forward growth rate>=3D15--that's just a simple way of identifying =
"growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM =
fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but =
that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The =
average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered =
why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, =
OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a =
small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the =
list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing =
well" in my mind.
I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to =
find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but =
certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as =
this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are =
subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move =
you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the =
new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when =
and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong =
breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's =
actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining =
strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy =
that money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so =
many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that =
money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON =
states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it =
takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Eric Jaenike=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 9:44 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the =
indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have =
broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.=20
In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those =
breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, =
tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. =
Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, =
etc, but don't act as well as the former category.=20
For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of =
the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above =
its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below =
its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, =
etc.=20
Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like =
UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it =
certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the =
list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' =
lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to =
say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, =
I don't want to include it.=20
In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, =
which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The =
point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not =
as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.=20
Hope that provides some clarity.=20
Eric=20
=20
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:=20
Hi Eric,
A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are =
"working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* =
been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your =
list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the =
candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks?
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Eric Jaenike=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it =
appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people =
are questioning whether it is real or not says something.=20
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the =
playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market =
along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, =
I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up =
32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long =
way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are =
now above 50% bulls.=20
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and =
really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS =
IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of =
course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I =
am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with =
the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.=20
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in =
this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us =
believe.=20
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, =
such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I =
consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.=20
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I =
think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to =
my longs.=20
Eric=20
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:=20
Katherine,
I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly =
define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that =
is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian,
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to =
me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases =
in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching =
this action from the sideline as well."=20
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that =
money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such =
as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than =
I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this =
buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling =
over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, =
propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to =
benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the =
defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline =
as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just =
shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? =
Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Eric Jaenike
President
Vector Investment Management
303-300-2961
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<DIV>Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, =
then,=20
you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts =
before=20
considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not =
clear to me,=20
however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock =
when=20
making your leader board.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that =
have=20
shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=3D6, =
AvgVol>=3D30000,=20
forward growth rate>=3D15--that's just a simple way of identifying =
"growth"=20
stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental =
tests=20
and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly =
substantial=20
list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks =
off the=20
10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks =
such as=20
INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, =
SCSC, or=20
PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not=20
perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a =
complete=20
list of "stocks doing well" in my mind.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going =
to find=20
perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but =
certainly if one=20
weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a =
lot of=20
emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en =
masse as=20
with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull =
market=20
(cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from =
various=20
industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong =
group moves=20
and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I =
think=20
it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining=20
strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy =
that=20
money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so =
many of=20
the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money =
might be=20
flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that =
about 14% of=20
"former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in =
a new=20
Bull market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
Jaenike</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 =
9:44=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in =
the=20
indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that =
have broken=20
out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.=20
<P>In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those =
breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price =
appreciation, tepid=20
pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. =
Others will=20
work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but =
don't=20
act as well as the former category.=20
<P>For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best =
of the=20
best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its=20
breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped =
below its=20
pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, =
etc.=20
<P>Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like =
UNTD,=20
which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it =
certainly=20
is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, =
because I=20
excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want =
to be=20
consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a =
playable=20
stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to =
include it.=20
<P>In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" =
list, which=20
I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point =
I was=20
trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong =
as the=20
move in the indices would indicate.=20
<P>Hope that provides some clarity.=20
<P>Eric=20
<P>=20
<P> <B><I>Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net></I></B> =
wrote:=20
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR>
<DIV>Hi Eric,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are =
"working"=20
that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been =
working=20
and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When =
you=20
look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you =
consider to=20
be CANSLIM stocks?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
Jaenike</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November =
21, 2002=20
4:02 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make =
it=20
appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that =
people are=20
questioning whether it is real or not says something.=20
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the =
playground=20
of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along =
with it.=20
While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think =
a true=20
bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on =
the Nas=20
from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way =
to go=20
without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now =
above=20
50% bulls.=20
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and =
really=20
performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT =
PIXR.=20
(These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of =
course,=20
others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I =
am=20
excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast =
these with=20
the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, =
etc.=20
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership =
in this=20
market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us =
believe.=20
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative =
dogs, such=20
as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I =
consider that=20
to also be a sign that this run is getting old.=20
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's =
4Q. I=20
think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close =
attention to my=20
longs.=20
<P>Eric=20
<P>
<P> <B><I>kentuna <kentuna@cox.net></I></B> wrote:=20
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff =
2px solid">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I know this has been discussed =
before, but=20
would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What =
is the=20
actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, =
November 21, 2002=20
2:04 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Ian,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling =
to me=20
that the sectors that stand to benefit the most =
from coming=20
increases in government spending - the defense and security =
sector -=20
are watching this action from the sideline as well."=20
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed =
that money=20
is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues =
such as=20
healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more =
breakouts than=20
I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks =
promising to=20
me.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca =
href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, =
November 21,=20
2002 3:23 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners =
emerging=20
from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>It seems to me that several recent =
rally=20
leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - =
while the=20
indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted=20
isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>It is also baffling to me that the =
sectors that=20
stand to benefit the most from coming increases in =
government=20
spending - the defense and security sector - are watching =
this=20
action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>So am I mising the new leaders of the =
bull, or is=20
this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze =
heavily=20
shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
=
size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>
<ADDRESS>Eric Jaenike</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>President</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>Vector Investment Management</ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS>303-300-2961</ADDRESS>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=3D1>
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