Re: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???


From: Arthur Kay <kayautho@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???
Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 19:50:51 -0500

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  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Tom Worley 
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
  Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:43 PM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???


  Bob, when a stock loses over 90% of its value in less than a year, a dead cat bounce is common. And when you have gone from over $21 to under $2, any "rally" can show impressive returns for the short term period. On the other hand, after this 50% gain you mention, it can still triple, yet leave investors that bought earlier this year with a 15% loss.

  It has a non-standard fiscal year, ended September. And its Q4 was a disaster with over a $3 per share loss recorded. I would assume, since I will not bother with any research, that they wrote off a lot of stuff in that quarter. Still, forecasts are for losing another dollar during the current year, so doesn't meet any CANSLIM I know of, including its current Group RS of D minus.

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Bob Raible 
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
  Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:35 PM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???


  Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives? 

   Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote: 

    Hi Ian,

    With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time.

    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: Ian 
    To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
    Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM
    Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M


    Hi Tom:

    I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.

    I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.

    Ian


      ----- Original Message ----- 
      From: Tom Worley 
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
      Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PM
      Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M


      Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund.

      ----- Original Message ----- 
      From: Ian 
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
      Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM
      Subject: [CANSLIM] M


      Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?

      It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.

      It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.

      So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?

      Ian


  Bob Raible
  Sunny San Jose,CA 




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  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=stkguru@bellsouth.net href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom 
  Worley</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com 
  href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 7:43 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] What's with 
  KLIC???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Bob, when a stock loses over 90% of its value in less 
  than a year, a dead cat bounce is common. And when you have gone from over $21 
  to under $2, any "rally" can show impressive returns for the short term 
  period. On the other hand, after this 50% gain you mention, it can still 
  triple, yet leave investors that bought earlier this year with a 15% 
  loss.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial>It has a non-standard fiscal year, ended September. And 
  its Q4 was a disaster with over a $3 per share loss recorded. I would assume, 
  since I will not bother with any research, that they wrote off a lot of stuff 
  in that quarter. Still, forecasts are for losing another dollar during the 
  current year, so doesn't meet any CANSLIM I know of, including its current 
  Group RS of D minus.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
  title=pscalare@yahoo.com href="mailto:pscalare@yahoo.com">Bob Raible</A> 
</DIV>
  <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com 
  href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 7:35 PM</DIV>
  <DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???</DIV></DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <P>Up over 50% on high volume&nbsp;in two days, not long after a couple of 
  downgrades. What gives? 
  <P>&nbsp;<B><I>Tom Worley &lt;<A 
  href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A>&gt;</I></B> 
  wrote: 
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">
    <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
    <STYLE></STYLE>

    <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Hi Ian,</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial>With the Republicans in control, defense contractors 
    will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, 
    from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will 
    be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart 
    bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as 
    anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The 
    reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency 
    will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress 
    has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to 
    do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies 
    are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will 
    develop for some time.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
    title=ianstm@shaw.ca href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
    <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com 
    href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM</DIV>
    <DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Tom:</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related 
    security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, 
    PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was 
    reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I was thinking of small companies that are going to 
    benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little 
    early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
      <A title=stkguru@bellsouth.net href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom 
      Worley</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=canslim@lists.xmission.com 
      href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002 
      8:52 PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial>Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as 
      did my IT stocks in my VR Fund.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
      title=ianstm@shaw.ca href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
      <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com 
      href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM</DIV>
      <DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from 
      this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that&nbsp;several recent rally leaders 
      are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power 
      ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to 
      benefit the most from&nbsp;coming increases in government spending - the 
      defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline 
      as well.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this 
      just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted 
      positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>Bob 
  Raible<BR>Sunny San Jose,CA 
  <P><BR>
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  Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A 
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