Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 07:22:32 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C2938A.40D891A0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_005E_01C2938A.40D891A0" - ------=_NextPart_001_005E_01C2938A.40D891A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Retail sales were essentially flat for the first half of November. I = haven't seen any more reports of stores or manufacturers being hurt by = the closure of the West Coast ports, in fact the backlog was apparently = cleared out a week ago, but mostly because new arrivals were taking = their cargo elsewhere. The Trade Gap was down 0.7% in September, but still the second highest = on record (August remains the record, for now). Year to date, the = deficit is up over 17%, with deficits with China and the EU as primary = cause. Boding ill for a recovery in the US economy, exports declined for = the second straight month. CPI rose 0.3% in October, core up 0.2%, both in line with expectations. = Rising energy prices (up 1.8%) were the biggest contributor. Guess we = won't have that problem if Bush succeeds in replacing Hussein with a US = dominated govt. The global economy could be kick started with increased = Iraqi oil production, and cheap prices, but then inflation could soar, = and standby for the Feds increasing rates. In a measure of health for both the economy in general, and the housing = industry in particular, the weekly index of mortgage requests rose last = week, up 21% from the prior week. Refinancing is still alive and well, = so consumer spending will continue, as well as new home construction. = Refi alone was up over 27%. Housing starts dropped 11.4% in October, biggest drop in 8 years, and = below expectations. Some of this was likely due to the unsustainable = growth seen in September. Most of the drop came from multi-family = construction, single family units only dropped 7%. The only region to = show an increase was the West, Northeast, Midwest, and South all dropped = double digits. New claims for unemployment fell by an unexpected 25,000 to their lowest = level in four months. Seasonal adjustments may have distorted the = results, however. The four week moving average dipped to 395,750, and = continuing claims also dropped to 3.58 million. Victoria's Secret lingerie TV show is indecent?? Oh please, war is = indecent, poverty is indecent, corrupt politicians that steal from their = citizens, or corrupt businessmen that steal from their shareholders, now = that is indecent. Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat in October, better than = expectations of a 0.1% decline, and an improvement over the 0.4% decline = in September. Consumer consumption still remains the lone holdout = supporting expectations of the future economy. Possibly contributing to the weak retail sales reports is the growth in = online sales in the third quarter, up 7.8% from the prior quarter and = 34.3% from the prior year. There is no seasonal adjustment to online = sales figures, and only limited historic data (back to 1999). Online = sales as a percent of overall retail sales grew from 1.2% to 1.3%. Economists cut their projections for growth in the Fourth Quarter from = 2.6% to 1.3%, and cut forecasts for 2003 from 3.0% to 2.6%. They = increased the odds of a contraction in Q4's GDP to 27% from 19%, = indicated growth would be improving by the end of 2003, and forecast = essentially a flat unemployment picture. The House failed to pass a bill before recessing for the holidays to = continue the extension of unemployment benefits, so anyone passing the = 26 week point after 12/28/02 will lose this benefit (estimated at 90,000 = people a week). Nice job, Congress. Fortunately, at least some of them = will also be unemployed in January. See how they like it then.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Good week for me, with my 401K gaining about 2%, my IRA about 3%, and my = margin acct up another 5+%. So naturally I have a bullish outlook this = weekend. Small caps rock!! The volume and price spike on Thursday pushed = every major index over the prior high, a positive signal for me. = Friday's sell off towards the close was a bit disappointing, but not = surprising. And the Naz, R2000, S&P Midcap 400 and S&P600 still managed = to close up slightly. The rest were barely down, so held the gains = nicely. While things don't appear to be getting much better, they also = are not getting worse, or at least if getting worse doing it at a much = slower rate. And earnings for the S&P500 companies, according to First = Call, are expected to rise during the fourth quarter 16.5%, up from 7.3% = in Q3 and 1.4% in Q2. I also note how the markets handled both good and = bad news, rallying on the former, and mostly shrugging off the latter. = That's a complete reversal of what we have mostly seen over the past two = years. I also note that most indexes have now risen 20% or more from the = October lows, also suggesting this may turn into more than a bull rally = in a continuing bear market. You can look at the charts (daily or = weekly) of most major indexes and argue double bottom vs head & = shoulders vs cup & handle. But Thursday's performance gives more = credence to the dbl bottom, and c&h, and less to the h&s. Comparing = up/down volume to advancing/declining issues also suggests to me that = money is flowing once again back into the big cap stocks. Most of these = will likely not prove to be winners, certainly not big winners, but = institutional money likes comfort names. And mutual fund shareholders = like to see names they recognize. Money is also flowing out of defensive = stocks, and into more speculative issues. The SOX Index has been = especially volatile lately. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend increased sharply, = not unexpected given the growth in stocks hitting new highs. ASGR - B4 CENT - B3 CHCO - LLUR CHS - 2nd attempt to b/o from the c&h COCO - LLUR ENR - B4 ESPD - c&h EXPD - second base forming above the handle? GDW - weak double bottom, handle formed GRMN - cup, good volume on right side IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund ISSX - early stage LLUR?, own, in my VR Fund JOSB - high handle MBFI - 14 week consolidation MDT - handle may be starting to form MVL - still trying to b/o from the handle NWRE - stealth b/o?, in my VR Fund NXTL - long cup, stealth b/o, no volume ODFL - 5 week consolidation off a LLUR PCLE - high handle, trying to b/o on double volume, at pivot PSUN - double bottom, handle formed just over the pivot RGIS - selloff on Friday took it under the nice handle formed ROOM - handleless cup?? ROST - breaking the handle pivot of the c&h on Friday, volume average RYAAY - not CANSLIM, but just wanted to point out one airline doing well = despite all the bad industry press SFSW - B3+ SJM - good example of how late money is chasing defensive stocks, while = institutional money is moving out, note volume past six days, I like = peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, but not where I put my money now STN - second base on the handle may be failing, or providing a second = entry VIP - Russian cellphone, anyone? In 3 qtrs, already nearly did full year = forecast, and trailing PE still only 16, needs to form a handle, but the = momentum may mean a handleless cup WDC - high handle, or handleless cup? WGO - back to the handle pivot WOOF - volume drying up nicely in the handle, another baby boomer stock? Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_005E_01C2938A.40D891A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Retail sales were essentially flat for the first = half of=20 November. I haven't seen any more reports of stores or manufacturers = being hurt=20 by the closure of the West Coast ports, in fact the backlog was = apparently=20 cleared out a week ago, but mostly because new arrivals were taking = their cargo=20 elsewhere.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Trade Gap was down 0.7% in September, but = still the=20 second highest on record (August remains the record, for now). Year to = date, the=20 deficit is up over 17%, with deficits with China and the EU as primary = cause.=20 Boding ill for a recovery in the US economy, exports declined for the = second=20 straight month.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CPI rose 0.3% in October, core up 0.2%, both in = line with=20 expectations. Rising energy prices (up 1.8%) were the biggest = contributor. Guess=20 we won't have that problem if Bush succeeds in replacing Hussein with a = US=20 dominated govt. The global economy could be kick started with increased = Iraqi=20 oil production, and cheap prices, but then inflation could soar, and = standby for=20 the Feds increasing rates.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In a measure of health for both the economy in = general,=20 and the housing industry in particular, the weekly index of mortgage = requests=20 rose last week, up 21% from the prior week. Refinancing is still alive = and well,=20 so consumer spending will continue, as well as new home construction. = Refi alone=20 was up over 27%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts dropped 11.4% in October, biggest = drop in 8=20 years, and below expectations. Some of this was likely due to the = unsustainable=20 growth seen in September. Most of the drop came from multi-family = construction,=20 single family units only dropped 7%. The only region to show an increase = was the=20 West, Northeast, Midwest, and South all dropped double = digits.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment fell by an = unexpected 25,000=20 to their lowest level in four months. Seasonal adjustments may have = distorted=20 the results, however. The four week moving average dipped to 395,750, = and=20 continuing claims also dropped to 3.58 million.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Victoria's Secret lingerie TV show is indecent?? = Oh=20 please, war is indecent, poverty is indecent, corrupt politicians that = steal=20 from their citizens, or corrupt businessmen that steal from their = shareholders,=20 now that is indecent.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat in = October,=20 better than expectations of a 0.1% decline, and an improvement over the = 0.4%=20 decline in September. Consumer consumption still remains the lone = holdout=20 supporting expectations of the future economy.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Possibly contributing to the weak retail sales=20 reports is the growth in online sales in the third quarter, up 7.8% = from=20 the prior quarter and 34.3% from the prior year. There is no seasonal = adjustment=20 to online sales figures, and only limited historic data (back to 1999). = Online=20 sales as a percent of overall retail sales grew from 1.2% to = 1.3%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Economists cut their projections for growth in = the Fourth=20 Quarter from 2.6% to 1.3%, and cut forecasts for 2003 from 3.0% to 2.6%. = They=20 increased the odds of a contraction in Q4's GDP to 27% from 19%, = indicated=20 growth would be improving by the end of 2003, and forecast essentially a = flat=20 unemployment picture.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The House failed to pass a bill before recessing = for the=20 holidays to continue the extension of unemployment benefits, so anyone = passing=20 the 26 week point after 12/28/02 will lose this benefit (estimated at = 90,000=20 people a week). Nice job, Congress. Fortunately, at least some of them = will also=20 be unemployed in January. See how they like it then.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Good week for me, with my 401K gaining about 2%, = my IRA=20 about 3%, and my margin acct up another 5+%. So naturally I have a = bullish=20 outlook this weekend. Small caps rock!! The volume and price spike on = Thursday=20 pushed every major index over the prior high, a positive signal for me. = Friday's=20 sell off towards the close was a bit disappointing, but not surprising. = And the=20 Naz, R2000, S&P Midcap 400 and S&P600 still managed to close up=20 slightly. The rest were barely down, so held the gains nicely. While = things=20 don't appear to be getting much better, they also are not getting worse, = or at=20 least if getting worse doing it at a much slower rate. And = earnings=20 for the S&P500 companies, according to First Call, are expected to = rise=20 during the fourth quarter 16.5%, up from 7.3% in Q3 and 1.4% in Q2. I = also note=20 how the markets handled both good and bad news, rallying on the former, = and=20 mostly shrugging off the latter. That's a complete reversal of what we = have=20 mostly seen over the past two years. I also note that most indexes have = now=20 risen 20% or more from the October lows, also suggesting this may turn = into more=20 than a bull rally in a continuing bear market. You can look at the = charts (daily=20 or weekly) of most major indexes and argue double bottom vs head & = shoulders=20 vs cup & handle. But Thursday's performance gives more credence to = the dbl=20 bottom, and c&h, and less to the h&s. Comparing up/down volume = to=20 advancing/declining issues also suggests to me that money is flowing = once again=20 back into the big cap stocks. Most of these will likely not prove to be = winners,=20 certainly not big winners, but institutional money likes comfort names. = And=20 mutual fund shareholders like to see names they recognize. Money is also = flowing=20 out of defensive stocks, and into more speculative issues. The SOX Index = has=20 been especially volatile lately. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 increased sharply, not unexpected given the growth in stocks hitting new = highs.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ASGR - B4</DIV> <DIV>CENT - B3</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CHS - 2nd attempt to b/o from the c&h</DIV> <DIV>COCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ENR - B4</DIV> <DIV>ESPD - c&h</DIV> <DIV>EXPD - second base forming above the handle?</DIV> <DIV>GDW - weak double bottom, handle formed</DIV> <DIV>GRMN - cup, good volume on right side</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>ISSX - early stage LLUR?, own, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>JOSB - high handle</DIV> <DIV>MBFI - 14 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>MDT - handle may be starting to form</DIV> <DIV>MVL - still trying to b/o from the handle</DIV> <DIV>NWRE - stealth b/o?, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>NXTL - long cup, stealth b/o, no volume</DIV> <DIV>ODFL - 5 week consolidation off a LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - high handle, trying to b/o on double volume, at pivot</DIV> <DIV>PSUN - double bottom, handle formed just over the pivot</DIV> <DIV>RGIS - selloff on Friday took it under the nice handle formed</DIV> <DIV>ROOM - handleless cup??</DIV> <DIV>ROST - breaking the handle pivot of the c&h on Friday, volume=20 average</DIV> <DIV>RYAAY - not CANSLIM, but just wanted to point out one airline doing = well=20 despite all the bad industry press</DIV> <DIV>SFSW - B3+</DIV> <DIV>SJM - good example of how late money is chasing defensive stocks, = while=20 institutional money is moving out, note volume past six days, I like = peanut=20 butter and jelly sandwiches, but not where I put my money now</DIV> <DIV>STN - second base on the handle may be failing, or providing a = second=20 entry</DIV> <DIV>VIP - Russian cellphone, anyone? In 3 qtrs, already nearly did full = year=20 forecast, and trailing PE still only 16, needs to form a handle, but the = momentum may mean a handleless cup</DIV> <DIV>WDC - high handle, or handleless cup?</DIV> <DIV>WGO - back to the handle pivot</DIV> <DIV>WOOF - volume drying up nicely in the handle, another baby boomer=20 stock?</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:005c01c293b4$299b86d0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_005E_01C2938A.40D891A0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C2938A.40D891A0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: 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