Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 08:33:01 -0500
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Andy, some of us are voting with real money. And I would have to rate =
myself bullish (don't know about the go-go, tho) as I am not only fully =
invested but on margin, and looking to buy one more stock which will =
take me to max margin.=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: AJAskey@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, November 25, 2002 8:06 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
jans,
As far as your "gaming" comment, in general, I think less of the =
SEC=20
than I do of independent advisors even though your comment may imply =
the=20
opposite. As for the AAII survey, it seems that your "cause and =
effect" is=20
out of focus: it is not merely the "vote" of bearishness that causes =
the=20
market to rally, it is the despondancy of investors due to a bear =
market that=20
causes them to "vote" bearish, and which then leads (due to a =
turnabout in=20
investor psychology and a lot of money on the sidelines) into a bull =
market. =20
I contend in the short term that it is the final vote tally that =
matters. I think it is a case of the tail wagging the dog. If the vote =
says people are bearish then a large amount of money comes into the =
system. If the total comes out bullish then the Joe Average investor =
has been conditioned to become bearish over the last couple years.
Are the voters bullish now? I see no evidence from the poll that leads =
me to think this is true other than people say so. The short interest =
levels listed in IBD show that we are at much higher levels than in July =
so people are shorting the rallies and not covering (it's off the high =
but the level now is much higher than it goes when the market is really =
bullish). The Commitment of Traders report of the S&P500 futures shows =
more shorts than longs (especially on the retail side). I don't know =
anyone in person or on the net who is go-go bullish. Those polls work =
on the sheep because the sheep do as they are told.
By the way, it is ironically funny that the advisors, referred to =
in=20
your E-mail, are accused of "gaming" the system with their =
dissemblings, when=20
later it is suggested by you that you vote "bearish" just so that the =
market=20
will turn into a bull. =20
I thought it was funny too. That's why I wrote it :)
Andy
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Andy, some of us are voting with real money. And =
I would=20
have to rate myself bullish (don't know about the go-go, tho) as I am =
not only=20
fully invested but on margin, and looking to buy one more stock which =
will take=20
me to max margin. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DAJAskey@aol.com =
href=3D"mailto:AJAskey@aol.com">AJAskey@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, November 25, 2002 8:06 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT =
size=3D2>jans,<BR><BR><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"=20
TYPE=3D"CITE"> As far as your "gaming" comment, =
in=20
general, I think less of the SEC <BR>than I do of independent advisors =
even=20
though your comment may imply the <BR>opposite. As for the =
AAII=20
survey, it seems that your "cause and effect" is <BR>out of focus: it =
is not=20
merely the "vote" of bearishness that causes the <BR>market to rally, =
it is=20
the despondancy of investors due to a bear market that <BR>causes them =
to=20
"vote" bearish, and which then leads (due to a turnabout in =
<BR>investor=20
psychology and a lot of money on the sidelines) into a bull =
market. =20
<BR></FONT><FONT lang=3D0 style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#000000 size=3D2 =
FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF"></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR></FONT><FONT lang=3D0=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" face=3DArial color=3D#000000 =
size=3D2=20
FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF">I contend in the short term that it is the final =
vote tally=20
that matters. I think it is a case of the tail wagging the =
dog. If=20
the vote says people are bearish then a large amount of money comes into =
the=20
system. If the total comes out bullish then the Joe Average =
investor has=20
been conditioned to become bearish over the last couple =
years.<BR><BR>Are the=20
voters bullish now? I see no evidence from the poll that leads me =
to think=20
this is true other than people say so. The short interest levels =
listed in=20
IBD show that we are at much higher levels than in July so people are =
shorting=20
the rallies and not covering (it's off the high but the level now is =
much higher=20
than it goes when the market is really bullish). The Commitment of =
Traders=20
report of the S&P500 futures shows more shorts than longs =
(especially on the=20
retail side). I don't know anyone in person or on the net who is =
go-go=20
bullish. Those polls work on the sheep because the sheep do as =
they are=20
told.<BR></FONT><FONT lang=3D0 style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#000000 size=3D2 FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF"><BR></FONT><FONT lang=3D0=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" face=3DArial color=3D#000000 =
size=3D2=20
FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF"><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"=20
TYPE=3D"CITE"> By the way, it is ironically =
funny that=20
the advisors, referred to in <BR>your E-mail, are accused of "gaming" =
the=20
system with their dissemblings, when <BR>later it is suggested by you =
that you=20
vote "bearish" just so that the market <BR>will turn into a =
bull. =20
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>I thought it was funny too. That's why I =
wrote it=20
:)<BR><BR>Andy<BR></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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